Scottish Cold Spell Discussion Part 11

[doctormog]

Well it's been raining most of the morning in Aberdeen. What a terrible cold snap this has been for us.

You're kidding? No rain here at all that I have noticed (in this bit of the city). There might be some later. I've just been out sledging at Crathes with my kids - it was great fun. When I returned about 2 hrs later there was even a very fine fresh white coovering on the paths I had cleared.

I take it you're quite central/low/coastal? Don't despair anyway the colder air will be back again tomorrow am and there could be a wee bit of snow too.

[Birkhill saints]

Just had a light shower of graupel/ hail/rain mix. Currently 1.9C. Maybe a heavier shower would turn to snow? You might be ok up in Birkie.

ps You going to Falkirk tomorrow?

NO im working so hope it,s off,

There is an inspection at 10am tomorrow,The way this cold spell is going there could be quite a back log soon.

[Norrance]

Looks like there are some light showers about now. Temps dropping in the last 15 mins from the days max of 2C to 1.5C now.

NO im working so hope it,s off,

There is an inspection at 10am tomorrow,The way this cold spell is going there could be quite a back log soon.

Thanks for letting me know about the pitch inspection. We were planning on catching the 1030 train via Edinburgh so better wait until we hear.

Back to the weather. Temps have dropped to 1.2C in the last few minutes.

[Mondy]

Yeah, you Perth mob just stay where you are

[Sunny Leith]

Not wanting to get on the MetOffice's case again (but what the hell I will anyway).

On their website they have a weather warning out for NE England tomorrow (fair enough). But their own predicted pressure chart/synoptics for the same period show that its Scotland that is covered by a mess of troughs/the low pressure feature/an easterly on the back end...

What gives ? They must have some inkling today for something coming out of all of that that tomorrow ? Surely it would be sensible to at least raise one of their Yellow/"Be aware" warnings for nothern/central-eastern parts tomorrow ?

Bizarre.

Edited January 1, 2010 by by-tor

[Mondy]

Not wanting to get on the MetOffice's case again (but what the hell I will anyway).

On their website they have a weather warning out for NE England tomorrow (fair enough). But their own predicted pressure chart/synoptics for the same period show that its Scotland that is covered by a mess of troughs/the low pressure feature/an easterly on the back end...

What gives ? They must have some inkling today for something coming out of all of that that tomorrow ? Surely it would be sensible to at least raise one of their Yellow/"Be aware" warnings for nothern/central-eastern parts tomorrow ?

Bizarre.

Here ya go, BT - you are not alone: http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/400414-whats-up-met-office-forecasting.html

[Methuselah]

All flights out of Inverness are cancelled...

[Ross B]

GFS has a band of snow just nudging in here from the west in the early hours. Wonder if that will happen? As well as a shedload of snow for N and N East Scotland.

[Blizzardo]

Happy New Year everyone!!

I'd expect Met Office warnings to change as we go through the night with the area of warning extended. Snowfall over the next 24-36 hours looks much more widespread and as others have said when the initial front clears its pulling in some really cold air behind with different bands of showers so snow could pop up almost anywhere.

[Mondy]

There is now cirulation to the feature just NE of Shetland currently ( http://www.sat24.com/scan )

North Europe analysis chart shows the feature too (as a low) http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?date=0&size=standard〈=en&map=NEurope

And from the much earlier shipping forecast, but still relevant for many on the Central Belt:

Low Viking 1004 expected Malin 1010 by same time

So, if that transpires, all the way from Shetland to Northern Ireland in a NE-SW direction covering great swathes of Scotland - will it produce snow ?

Edited January 1, 2010 by Mondy

[Ross B]

Look at these pics from Grantown on Spey, 3 pages worth but

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/30221.aspx?PageIndex=2

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Its the price us coasties pay for any marginality at the end of the day ZL. A few miles this way or that .. a few hundred feet from one side of town to another .. its the same here in Embra where I can go from extensive snow cover in the south and west of town ... to the patchy stuff we have here in Leith (very patchy but been here for 16 days). A price worth paying when it delivers on the right side of things though and plenty of scope for that payoff over the coming days - and just maybe, weeks !!!

We seem to get this in Glasgow too.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Well more snow overnight although a slight drip off the tree branches,0c and a slight breeze. Almost half a metre now and becuse snow is damp very hard to walk through if you have to move off the tracked areas. Just started to hail and wind getting up.14 days of lying snow.If wind goes round to the east later will have a longer land track so temperature will probably fall. Amazing cold spell!!!!

[Methuselah]

Look at these pics from Grantown on Spey, 3 pages worth but

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/t/30221.aspx?PageIndex=2

Brilliant pics, Ross...Those pics could be put with the '47/'63 memorabilia (sp?)...

[Shandiman]

Hi all, been bit busy last few days, but just lookied at the 12z run forecast and looks promising for tonight into tomorrow. Just to let you know lowest recorded temp for my area was -10.7c with a dewpoint of -13c last night, and today's top temp has been a warm -3.7c with dewpoint of -6.5c. Meto not updated warnings as of 10 mins ago, but that is sure to change .

[Norrance]

Brilliant pics, Ross...Those pics could be put with the '47/'63 memorabilia (sp?)...

fantastic photos.

If the footie is off tomorrow I am heading to Highland Perthshire for a walk. must remember camera.

icicles in that area too. Maybe not as big though.

http://aberfeldyweather.com/

[JRMcLeod]

Those pics are crazy! Cant wait to go skiing!

[JRMcLeod]

Cairngorm Mountain website have updated and are claiming to have at least 100cm of snow on average across the mountain with several feet in places, any deeper and all the snow fences will be gone, now that would be fantastic as i find those fences really unsightly, it would look very similar to the als in that situation! They have also stating that it is currently the best place to ski in Europe!

[Highland Snow]

Not wanting to get on the MetOffice's case again (but what the hell I will anyway).

On their website they have a weather warning out for NE England tomorrow (fair enough). But their own predicted pressure chart/synoptics for the same period show that its Scotland that is covered by a mess of troughs/the low pressure feature/an easterly on the back end...

What gives ? They must have some inkling today for something coming out of all of that that tomorrow ? Surely it would be sensible to at least raise one of their Yellow/"Be aware" warnings for nothern/central-eastern parts tomorrow ?

Bizarre.

See they have added warnings for Highland and Grampian but not Tayside and Fife.

[Snowplough33]

Not wanting to get on the MetOffice's case again (but what the hell I will anyway).

On their website they have a weather warning out for NE England tomorrow (fair enough). But their own predicted pressure chart/synoptics for the same period show that its Scotland that is covered by a mess of troughs/the low pressure feature/an easterly on the back end...

What gives ? They must have some inkling today for something coming out of all of that that tomorrow ? Surely it would be sensible to at least raise one of their Yellow/"Be aware" warnings for nothern/central-eastern parts tomorrow ?

Bizarre.

Yeh I have to agree. The MO are fab alot of the time, but right now, I cant find an area in Scotland thats not got cloudy with sleet/snow forecast tomorrow and that is there own site + forecast, but no advisery??? Bizare.

Anyway, the new GSF for this is great, with extreme cold most of the time, and generally stays cold for a long time

[Sunny Leith]

Cheers Mondy, looking at that thread I'm not the only grumpy old metoffice-basher about

Here what frustates me: the metoffice website offers me about half a dozen different ways to get a forecast

Theres the :

UK wide graphical forecast for the bext 2-3 days (with variants for synpotics/pressure, rainfall, temperature, wind)

UK wide verbal summary forecast for the next 2-3 days

Area forecast (SW Scotland, Lothian, Borders) for the next few days - again graphically with synpotics etc or verbally

City forecast (Edinburgh broken down into a table of immediate 3 hourly, 6 hourly... then day level for 2-3 days)

And the yellow/Be Aware, Amber/Take Action etc warnings of course. Many of these fly in the face of - or simply don't represent - the other forecasts on the website.

Inevitably these all contradict each other in detail and over time (I imagine its too difficult to manage and keep in sync so many forecasts on the website)

I suspect some of these are partially - or fully - automated as no human could look at them and not be struck by the contradictions.

Equally inevtiably they often don't reflect whats happening out of the window. Even if they can't forecast with certainty, surely they can at least nowcast when they have to.

Throw into the mix, their provision of data for ITV, Sky ?, the BBC (and the fact that the BBC then splits into national and local forecasts) ... and that each forecaster then has his own take on the data...

Consequently I almost automatically disregard any forecast that I see on the TV ... and check for myself from the radar, the models, from lookibng out of the window, and from what people are saying or seeing on here (local and up to date knowledge has been invaluable here this past 2 weeks)

Sorry, end of rant !

Here ya go, BT - you are not alone: http://www.pprune.or...orecasting.html

[Hairy Celt]

Phenomenal snowfall in Speyside then... Temp here just dropping below freezing again, lots of dripping today! The A9 was fine (apart from the runaway dog, you need to find your home pal) and there's a little ice in the Cromarty Firth.

Looks like armageddon's approaching again from some of the temps being shown on forecasts for the coming week!

Cheers Mondy, looking at that thread I'm not the only grumpy old metoffice-basher about

Here what frustates me: the metoffice website offers me about half a dozen different ways to get a forecast

Theres the :

UK wide graphical forecast for the bext 2-3 days (with variants for synpotics/pressure, rainfall, temperature, wind)

UK wide verbal summary forecast for the next 2-3 days

Area forecast (SW Scotland, Lothian, Borders) for the next few days - again graphically with synpotics etc or verbally

City forecast (Edinburgh broken down into a table of immediate 3 hourly, 6 hourly... then day level for 2-3 days)

And the yellow/Be Aware, Amber/Take Action etc warnings of course. Many of these fly in the face of - or simply don't represent - the other forecasts on the website.

Inevitably these all contradict each other in detail and over time (I imagine its too difficult to manage and keep in sync so many forecasts on the website)

I suspect some of these are partially - or fully - automated as no human could look at them and not be struck by the contradictions.

Equally inevtiably they often don't reflect whats happening out of the window. Even if they can't forecast with certainty, surely they can at least nowcast when they have to.

Throw into the mix, their provision of data for ITV, Sky ?, the BBC (and the fact that the BBC then splits into national and local forecasts) ... and that each forecaster then has his own take on the data...

Consequently I almost automatically disregard any forecast that I see on the TV ... and check for myself from the radar, the models, from lookibng out of the window, and from what people are saying or seeing on here (local and up to date knowledge has been invaluable here this past 2 weeks)

Sorry, end of rant !

Couldn't agree more. About the only use for the MetO website is to see reported temperatures. The rest is just crap.

[Sunny Leith]

You have to laugh HS. The confidence in their Scottish warnings extends to forecasting snow in a mounatinous area in the middle of a cold spell. They can award themselves a big bonus for that one !

Looks like we'll be reverting here to radar/nowacsting to see whats going to happen elsewhere in the next 24-36-48 hours....

Thats whats worked out best the past couple of weeks anyway !

See they have added warnings for Highland and Grampian but not Tayside and Fife.

[Highland Snow]

Cheers Mondy, looking at that thread I'm not the only grumpy old metoffice-basher about

Here what frustates me: the metoffice website offers me about half a dozen different ways to get a forecast

Theres the :

UK wide graphical forecast for the bext 2-3 days (with variants for synpotics/pressure, rainfall, temperature, wind)

UK wide verbal summary forecast for the next 2-3 days

Area forecast (SW Scotland, Lothian, Borders) for the next few days - again graphically with synpotics etc or verbally

City forecast (Edinburgh broken down into a table of immediate 3 hourly, 6 hourly... then day level for 2-3 days)

And the yellow/Be Aware, Amber/Take Action etc warnings of course. Many of these fly in the face of - or simply don't represent - the other forecasts on the website.

Inevitably these all contradict each other in detail and over time (I imagine its too difficult to manage and keep in sync so many forecasts on the website)

I suspect some of these are partially - or fully - automated as no human could look at them and not be struck by the contradictions.

Equally inevtiably they often don't reflect whats happening out of the window. Even if they can't forecast with certainty, surely they can at least nowcast when they have to.

Throw into the mix, their provision of data for ITV, Sky ?, the BBC (and the fact that the BBC then splits into national and local forecasts) ... and that each forecaster then has his own take on the data...

Consequently I almost automatically disregard any forecast that I see on the TV ... and check for myself from the radar, the models, from lookibng out of the window, and from what people are saying or seeing on here (local and up to date knowledge has been invaluable here this past 2 weeks)

Sorry, end of rant !

Thanks for that by-Tor, saved me a bit of typing and raised blood pressure!

[Snowplough33]

I am sure when LS is back on this thread, we will get a detailed now/forecast.

I am really unsure whats going to happen tonight, I thought there was slightly warmer air coming across, then much colder. Is the cold going to catch the band or is there showers behind the band ect.