Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Lewis]

not at all young man-were I not on my own now-have been for a number of years- then I very much doubt if a wife would put up with seemingly being attached to this pc!

As to drinks-don't worry I do enjoy a glass or two of red and the occasional brown liquid, so have no worries there. As to exploring the Uk then 1 in 4 weekends will see me hiking through Derbyshire, and a couple of weekends further afield. I take at least 4 holidays per year, one coming up in two weeks=my annual pilgrimage to Wengen in the Bernese Oberland Switzerland. I've still some 'must see' places I hope to get to before I find the grim reaper at my door-China, S Africa, parts of NW America along with some others. The major problem is that Mr Chancellor having taken my bloody money once when I worked now takes it a second time from my pension-never mind I'll manage.

end of brief current pastimes of jh

I must admit you do love your p.c! I too would like to visit Africa and parts of America. Whether or not it'll happen is another question, i would like to visit Sydney/Australia too.

Since i was a kid i have always wanted to swim with sharks. lol

Lewis

[Mark Bayley]

Latest NAE model gives 2cm-5cm across much of our region by the end of tomorrow. Some areas receiving a little more were the heavier precipitation occurs I can't see rain or sleet other than coastal areas

[Lewis]

no doubt the 18z will be different.

Not just from my personal point of view, but i really am worried about the 12z regarding the warm sector.

Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not just from my personal point of view, but i really am worried about the 12z regarding the warm sector.

Lewis

Could you post a chart lewis to show what you are talking about please?

[Lewis]

Could you post a chart lewis to show what you are talking about please?

Should not really be posting the NW Extra charts but I'm sure Paul will forgive on this occasion.

Tuesdays;

Wednesday gets better, but Thursday, well i don't want to think about Thursday lol.

Lewis

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Should not really be posting the NW Extra charts but I'm sure Paul will forgive on this occasion.

Tuesdays;

Wednesday gets better, but Thursday, well i don't want to think about Thursday lol.

Lewis

Thanks mate, I didn't realise that the charts were an extra thing, appologies! Thats why I couldn't find them. Hope its only a blip. I will watch Paul Hudson with baited breath.

[sparky1972]

is there anyone here that could convince my daughter we are going to get snow here in sth lincs please, she is desperate and all she heard on look north was sleet and rain. lol thanks from a stressed out dad.

[Just Before Dawn]

Not just from my personal point of view, but i really am worried about the 12z regarding the warm sector.

Lewis

I wouldn't. For one, remember the geographical resolution of the maps - what are they 8km? That's a long way given the areas we're talking about. Secondly, it's appeared from nowhere (at least the extension landward has), so it can go the same way. Thirdly, there's not much you can do about it now - it's so close that I'm not sure what model-watching achieves that radar-watching and reading reports from members further north won't. It would be a shame to worry about a dew point of +0.2 or +0.3 (which is likely what we're talking about) when virtually all the other factors are favourable and not enjoy a very special period of weather.

[Lewis]

I wouldn't. For one, remember the geographical resolution of the maps - what are they 8km? That's a long way given the areas we're talking about. Secondly, it's appeared from nowhere (at least the extension landward has), so it can go the same way. Thirdly, there's not much you can do about it now - it's so close that I'm not sure what model-watching achieves that radar-watching and reading reports from members further north won't. It would be a shame to worry about a dew point of +0.2 or +0.3 (which is likely what we're talking about) when virtually all the other factors are favourable and not enjoy a very special period of weather.

Well, yes i totally agree.

Although gut instinct tells me rain, I'll be open and honest. I don't want all the other members getting their hopes up to be possibly let down. The GFS has handled the past few warmer sectors very well for this part of the woods.

I won't expect anything here, then at least if i do see some snow, it's a bonus.

Also when you go on the NMM, at a better resolution, it's even more demoralizing lol.

The further the N,W, and south you are the better.

Lewis

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Mark Bayley]

I remember the last warm sector, which was a lot bigger than this one! That delivered snow for here, despite the precipitation charts showing sleet. This so called warm sector looks small. It will be snow for most with perhaps sleet towards the coast. I will happily admit if I'm wrong come tomorrow

[Light Without Heat]

Lake effect snow for us ??? - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1

[Lewis]

I remember the last warm sector, which was a lot bigger than this one! That delivered snow for here, despite the precipitation charts showing sleet. This so called warm sector looks small. It will be snow for most with perhaps sleet towards the coast. I will happily admit if I'm wrong come tomorrow

I will happily admit if it does snow tomorrow and not rain, rather that than the other way around lol.

lewis

[Schnee]

That pictures amazing, would be alright if you ran out of ice cubes, plenty there for your vodka and coke

Salty icecubes thought!!!!

It came from Google images. Imagine if you woke up tomorrow morning and saw your car looking like that :lol:

ok the lot of you-the last time I'll try and help all.

IF you are concerned about will it snow or rain or whatever, then go to the Guides and read the article in their by me.

It should help you work out for yourself just what your chances are of snow.

If you have Extra and here is another reason to get it at least over the winter months then all the charts you need are in that package.

Can you try and stop, young as some of you are, of giving the impression that you cannot work out what is happening. On this web site there is enough data from the models along with sensible forecasts from NW forecasters for any part of the Uk for you to be always well up as to what is going to happen.

I find it quite disheartening to read some of the posts in here at times when the answer is no more than a couple of clicks away with your mouse.

I've lost count of the number of times I've offered to help-next post is it isn't it, so and so said this and someone else said this.

SLOW down-THINK and ENJOY being part of Net Weather.

ask-learn-don't be afraid to admit you may be wrong.

The day I do that will be the last I do any forecasting.

I doubt anyone other than on the beach-and even here they will see snow-will otherwise not have a covering by this time tomorrow. Some of the lucky ones may have 5-10cm possibly more.

again enjoy-relax-chill out a bit.

I'm here if anyone wants to ask questions.

If not send a pm and I'll get back as soon as I can or if there are several answer them on here.

I apologise for my constant questions on what is happening....I do not understand meteorology all that well in great technical terms. The model maps still look like pretty drawings to me!!!!! I only understand what used to and should happen in situations.

I also work 10am-9pm as a mobile service engineer and during these cold spells, the threads have grown somewhat in that time and after such a long and usually stressful day, I am too tired mentally and pysically to check through them all.

I do have SM's, yours and a few other of the experts' post history in my bookmark list and usually go looking at their last few posts.

[Mark Bayley]

I will happily admit if it does snow tomorrow and not rain, rather that than the other way around lol.

lewis

Yes, i won't happy admit if i was wrong, i will sadly admit as was wrong

Edited January 4, 2010 by mark bayley

[Light Without Heat]

Some places in our area are gonna take a battering off this lot by the looks - http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/precipitations/6h.htm

[reef]

I wouldnt worry about warm sectors tonight. Bear in mind this front is coming up against bitterly cold air entrenched at the surface, which will be further enhanced by clear skies for some time before the cloud arrives. Temperatures at 850hPa level look pretty favourable too, never rising above -6C. The thickness at 850-1000hPa level is a more important pointer (essentially the distance between the ground and 850hPa level), which over this area rises to a maximum of 1290-1292 (under 1290 is preferred and indicates 70% chance of snow I believe) so also pretty good. The zero degree level is also around 100-200 metres or so, which pretty much guarantees no melting will occur on the trip to the ground.

The skew-t charts can be a powerful tool here too:

At the time of the precipitation, notice how the dewpoint (left line) and temperature (right line) both stay close together as you'd expect during precipitation (saturated air). Theres also no nasty suprises such as inversions on the ground (warmer air above a cold lower layer, which would be shown as a small 'flick' left by the temperature line near to the ground), so freezing rain seems unlikely.

It has been a clear and sunny day after remaining cloudy for most of the night. Rather cold though with a max temp of 0.4C after a min of -3.7C - the coldest January night since 2002.

[Lewis]

See the other thing that hurts the most, is that other than the NMM model, there is nothing else we can look at for guidance regarding dew points etc, other than the GFS. Which makes it so painful!

Lewis

I wouldnt worry about warm sectors tonight. Bear in mind this front is coming up against bitterly cold air entrenched at the surface, which will be further enhanced by clear skies for some time before the cloud arrives. Temperatures at 850hPa level look pretty favourable too, never rising above -6C. The thickness at 850-1000hPa level is a more important pointer (essentially the distance between the ground and 850hPa level), which over this area rises to a maximum of 1290-1292 (under 1290 is preferred and indicates 70% chance of snow I believe) so also pretty good. The zero degree level is also around 100-200 metres or so, which pretty much guarantees no melting will occur on the trip to the ground.

The skew-t charts can be a powerful tool here too:

At the time of the precipitation, notice how the dewpoint (left line) and temperature (right line) both stay close together as you'd expect during precipitation (saturated air). Theres also no nasty suprises such as inversions on the ground (warmer air above a cold lower layer, which would be shown as a small 'flick' left by the temperature line), so freezing rain seems unlikely.

It has been a clear and sunny day after remaining cloudy for most of the night. Rather cold though with a max temp of 0.4C after a min of -3.7C - the coldest January night since 2002.

FANTASTIC POST REEF! Made me feel much better. Regarding your temp, i got down to -3.8 last night, and havent got above 0.8c today, currently -0.5 here now with a dew of -3.6, looks like my weather station is fixed

Lewis

[Light Without Heat]

I wouldnt worry about warm sectors tonight. Bear in mind this front is coming up against bitterly cold air entrenched at the surface, which will be further enhanced by clear skies for some time before the cloud arrives. Temperatures at 850hPa level look pretty favourable too, never rising above -6C. The thickness at 850-1000hPa level is a more important pointer (essentially the distance between the ground and 850hPa level), which over this area rises to a maximum of 1290-1292 (under 1290 is preferred and indicates 70% chance of snow I believe) so also pretty good. The zero degree level is also around 100-200 metres or so, which pretty much guarantees no melting will occur on the trip to the ground.

The skew-t charts can be a powerful tool here too:

At the time of the precipitation, notice how the dewpoint (left line) and temperature (right line) both stay close together as you'd expect during precipitation (saturated air). Theres also no nasty suprises such as inversions on the ground (warmer air above a cold lower layer, which would be shown as a small 'flick' left by the temperature line near to the ground), so freezing rain seems unlikely.

It has been a clear and sunny day after remaining cloudy for most of the night. Rather cold though with a max temp of 0.4C after a min of -3.7C - the coldest January night since 2002.

Post of the day mate - its stopped Lewis having a coronary ! <_<

[Lewis]

Post of the day mate - its stopped Lewis having a coronary ! <_<

LOL, my cholesterol levels have dropped after reefs post

Phew..

Totally agree along with J Holmes, both posters of the day!

lewis

[WS Evolution]

I wouldnt worry about warm sectors tonight. Bear in mind this front is coming up against bitterly cold air entrenched at the surface, which will be further enhanced by clear skies for some time before the cloud arrives. Temperatures at 850hPa level look pretty favourable too, never rising above -6C. The thickness at 850-1000hPa level is a more important pointer (essentially the distance between the ground and 850hPa level), which over this area rises to a maximum of 1290-1292 (under 1290 is preferred and indicates 70% chance of snow I believe) so also pretty good. The zero degree level is also around 100-200 metres or so, which pretty much guarantees no melting will occur on the trip to the ground.

It suggests to me big wet snow flakes rather than finer dry snow. Rain away from the beach would be very unlikely.

[Lewis]

It suggests to me big wet snow flakes rather than finer dry snow. Rain away from the beach would be very unlikely.

it should still stick though shouldn't it ?

If i'm right, the closer the dews and temp, the better the saturation. So they could be some fairly heavy falls. Also if history serves me right, you get better falls when its big fat wettish flakes. As long as the surface is at 0c or below (which it will be)

Lewis

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[WS Evolution]

it should still stick though shouldn't it ?

If i'm right, the closer the dews and temp, the better the saturation. So they could be some fairly heavy falls. Also if history serves me right, you get better falls when its big fat wettish flakes. As long as the surface is at 0c or below (which it will be)

Lewis

It would stick and would be deeper compared to dry snow. Between York and Malton about 5 inches fell in 1 hour new years day, the impressive depth was partly due to the massive flakes that where falling.

Edited January 4, 2010 by WS Evolution

[Lewis]

It would stick and would be deeper compared to dry snow. Between York and Malton about 5 inches fell in 1 hour new years day, the impressive depth was partly due to the massive flakes that where falling.

I would like to bank that please

Win win, get your big fat wettest flakes and a lovely depth, and then freeze on the night.

lewis

[Mark Bayley]

All the main models agree with us seeing around 2cm to 5cm across out region, probably a little more were it falls heavier. I would stick to the net-weather model and the NAE for short term precipitation forecasting. Then watch the radar during tomorrow

[reef]

It suggests to me big wet snow flakes rather than finer dry snow. Rain away from the beach would be very unlikely.

Pretty much yes. The snowfall on the Saturday evening a couple of weeks ago was like this - massive flakes. Compare that to the flurries we've had from the easterly spells - mostly fine flakes and snow pellets (graupel). More moisture in the air associated with higher temperatures (colder air holds less moisture) is good for flake size but the risk is it being too marginal (as happened in western parts of the region that night).

It looks pretty good for tonight, it could be marginal for a time on the coast but as ever in the UK its a case of just waiting and see what falls. These things dont always go to plan