East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[nick sussex]

I think I'll be brave and say that there will be snow showers from time to time over the next 7 or 8 days. Nothing major just a few centimetres falling from time to time. Many places in the UK will see very little snow, others will see moderate falls. No major disruption. Business as usual.

And what do you base this on? Nothing major just a few centimetres! sorry but the current set up especially for more favoured areas is likely to cause huge disruption. I'm sorry but your posts don't make much sense given that they seem to be just put in here to get a response and are not based on any knowledge of weather models or the general set up!

[Helvellyn]

i get massive déjà vu reading this thread sometimes. we're only just coming into a reliable timeframe for ppn imo. don't jump the gun yet.

[kold weather]

Yeah I saw that two Kold. Just disappears over our neck of the woods.

Can't see it myself. We'll get an inch or two I reckon.

Radars at the ready.

I fully expect an upgrade from the 12z GFS as well...

It makes perfecr synoptic sense thats what is really making me take this more seriously then I normally would. The front weakens a lot as the trough develops over NE England as the low develops in the North Sea, then at the same time the front starts to re-strengthen again in the south as a weak wave feature forms on the front...Wherever is too far south before the front weakens and too far north to get the strengthening of the front is in the so called screw zone.

Its a real close set-up though to be honest and if the whole lot gets shifted even slightly further north it could make nthe difference from a dusting-1cm, to 5-10cms...

So keep the hope of course because there should be some snow about, but whether its worth getting excited about is very 50-50 at the moment....

I'd be much more excited in Kent at the moment to be honest...however as per normal enough uncertainty to still need close watching.

Edited January 4, 2010 by kold weather

[Hammer]

I think I'll be brave and say that there will be snow showers from time to time over the next 7 or 8 days. Nothing major just a few centimetres falling from time to time. Many places in the UK will see very little snow, others will see moderate falls. No major disruption. Business as usual.

Interesting that the Met Office consider disruption a real possibility for some favoured areas, but a poster called noshowsnow on netweather, seemingly with no detailed knowledge of the current setup in fact possibly not even aware of where snow is actually on the ground right now, suggests quite randomly that many places in the UK will see very little snow.

I am off to update my ignore list to include your good self.

[Azores Hi]

I'd be much more excited in Kent at the moment to be honest...

I am very excited! Only trouble is I'm leaving Kent for the balmy shores of the Ilse of Wight tomorrow, back Thursday evening, I only hope I can get back in! :unsure:

[rmc1987]

This whole setup must be very uncertain?? It sounds all over the place in terms of what people are predicting etc...?

Edited January 4, 2010 by rmc1987

[maidstone weather]

I'd be much more excited in Kent at the moment to be honest

:unsure:

It will change again Kold, just like it did this morning. We watch the next few NAE runs with strong interest

Gold old Michael Fish on the local forecast

Edited January 4, 2010 by maidstone weather

[runboy]

Anybody hazard a guess at what the snow (if any of course!) will be like in Norwich, heading due east, on Friday? We have friends travelling from Norwich to Leicester on Friday and I'm wondering what sort of trip they might be in for?

Of course I could get my crystal ball out but it never did work that well.... ;-)

[Noshowsnow]

And what do you base this on? Nothing major just a few centimetres! sorry but the current set up especially for more favoured areas is likely to cause huge disruption. I'm sorry but your posts don't make much sense given that they seem to be just put in here to get a response and are not based on any knowledge of weather models or the general set up!

Having watched the debates in this forum for a number of weeks before deciding to post I was quite aware that anyone not slavishly following the extreme weather line was likely to receive either the cold shoulder or ridicule. Model watching as you are aware is not an exact science, in fact it's very far from it. But if you also decide to ignore any particular model run that doesn't seem to be showing you what you want to see this makes any possibilty of forecasting almost impossible. I'll now go back to watching not posting. Thanks for your time.

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

All the constant interpretation and speculation here is wonderful(seriously). I enjoy reading every one of them, even those tending on eccentricity! Keep them coming please. When a big event does happen (it has to sometime or other) I'm sure the local data and conditions will be gushing thick and fast.

[Snow Queen one]

noshowsnow have you any knowledge of how to read the charts do you work for the Met office or any weather related job? Do you get updates from the met office like others on here? Can you ans these questions please because if you do not then try not to put yourself in the firing line for comments like you have just had it only serves to clog up this thread and gives me great amusement looking at all the comments directed to you. There are some seriously witty and intelegent people on here who know a lot more than most of us. Enjoy.

[chilly milly]

julie on Look East predicting snow coming down from the North West tomorrow morning starting to hit our region at 6am. Followed by another band in the evening which will be heavier in the East.

Snow signalled for every day the rest of this week to some degree or another.

All looking very good.

Currently 0.3c here with a dewpoint of -1.9c

I feel we are very lucky in this thread having the knowledge of Steve M, Nick S, TEITS, Tamara and Kold to help us through this spell.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Chilly Milly

[simon65]

just had a look at my weather station and its predicting SNOW ,so there we have it ,probably going to be a good time ahead ,the temps have not risen above -2 here so i expect with the very hard frost from last night and the snow to follow its going to look rather white everywhere.my presant condition are :-

Current data for Linslade

04 January 2010 13:46:39

Temperature (°C):

Current -2.0

Trend (per hour) +0.4

Average today -4.6

Wind chill -2.0

Heat Index -2.0

Dew Point -3.6

Rel Humidity 89%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 1.6 NW

Average Speed 0.0 NE

Pressure (mb):

Current 1017.6

Trend (per hour) -0.8

[Coast]

Of course I could get my crystal ball out but it never did work that well.... ;-)

But at this range and in that small geographical area - just as accurate.......

[nick sussex]

Having watched the debates in this forum for a number of weeks before deciding to post I was quite aware that anyone not slavishly following the extreme weather line was likely to receive either the cold shoulder or ridicule. Model watching as you are aware is not an exact science, in fact it's very far from it. But if you also decide to ignore any particular model run that doesn't seem to be showing you what you want to see this makes any possibilty of forecasting almost impossible. I'll now go back to watching not posting. Thanks for your time.

Your posts have not been following a middle of the road view but have just stated that basically the whole thing will be a non event! and i'm quite aware of the models and their reliability, as for ignoring a run that doesn't show what i want it to, the gfs 06hrs run was very cold and wintry for me here in sw France and was better for my location than the ecm or ukmo so that argument is i'm afraid worthless! the reason that we've basically ignored it is that the gfs is not being used at present by NOAA forecasters in the USA for their outlook, basically their own homegrown model has been dropped in favour of the ecm! the reason your posts have been criticized is that they bear no relation to what the models, the ukmo or any other forecasting agency are suggesting not because you were not going for snow hysteria.

I'm sure you like snow so why not put your location in your avatar so that we can see if we can drum up some snow for you.

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[true blue]

I think I'll be brave and say that there will be snow showers from time to time over the next 7 or 8 days. Nothing major just a few centimetres falling from time to time. Many places in the UK will see very little snow, others will see moderate falls. No major disruption. Business as usual.

im just wondering looking at your user name are you basically here just to wind people up. who to be honest doing a good job there self. also you don't seem to mention what part of the country you are based ,and being a new member is your knowledge of the different runs qualifies for this statement

[Paul Sherman]

Having watched the debates in this forum for a number of weeks before deciding to post I was quite aware that anyone not slavishly following the extreme weather line was likely to receive either the cold shoulder or ridicule. Model watching as you are aware is not an exact science, in fact it's very far from it. But if you also decide to ignore any particular model run that doesn't seem to be showing you what you want to see this makes any possibilty of forecasting almost impossible. I'll now go back to watching not posting. Thanks for your time.

How come your ISP Matches that of a certain poster called "Lowestoft"

Unlucky Diane - Nice try at winding people up

Banning Stick about to come out! PMSL

[Brocken Spectre]

OOOh my VP2 has just come up with this!

VP2 Weather Station Prediction: Increasing clouds and warmer. precipitation possible within 12 to 24 hrs. windy.

When is says warmer, I think it means a degree or so.......bless it!

[Southender]

Haha.

Owned!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

IMO there is a good chance of snow next week but i feel that too many members have too high expections of what is to come. We in the far SE Mid-Kent which no one mentions had a good lot of snow before christmas and it was fun for a while. I have to say although it has been cold it is not as bad as 87 and the snow we had then was twice the amount that fell before chrismas. IMO we do not want that type of snow again it was not good for anybody except the children who went to play in it and did not have to worry about food and bills and work like most of us.

I for one am glad the threat from the low has diminished i was not looking forward to it. Our council think gritting the raods is a crime so we are always slipping and sliding around in snow anyway.

Yes there are very high expectations. Thus far I have had relatively little snow and certainly will enjoy a decent covering with the hope that the cold air stays around (which it looks pretty certain to).

I adore snow obviously and always get excited about the prospect of it - BUT, like you, I don't want any extreme event and hope that the excesses threatened in the further outlook for the weekend don't materialise.

Myself and the household can muddle through ok obviously, that is not a problem - but I have domestic livestock to look after whose livelihood depend upon the power supplies not being affected. So I am concerned enough to hope this sort of threat can be avoided. Apart from their obvious important livelihood - the cost would be expensive financially as well. All this quite apart from the fact that whilst I want to enjoy the snow, I don't want everything paralysed to the point of not being able to get out and about both to enjoy it (when time allows) but also much like you simply to be able to do the daily necessary routine!

I guess if you have no responsibilities as such, then it matters less to some people - hence the hope for disruptive extreme events.

There are also elderly and vulnerable people to consider as well of course.

Edited January 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[simon65]

just watched the local Anglia weather and they forcast upto 15cm tomorrow !

[Helvellyn]

OOOh my VP2 has just come up with this!

When is says warmer, I think it means a degree or so.......bless it!

which run is it using?

[Derp Patrol]

How come your ISP Matches that of a certain poster called "Lowestoft"

Unlucky Diane - Nice try at winding people up

Banning Stick about to come out! PMSL

Oh god that woman was annoying

Waiting anxiously for the 12Z, hopefully an upgrade as so far all I have had this winter is a few dustings of snow.. I'd bet that most areas tomorrow in this region will see a covering

[Brocken Spectre]

which run is it using?

"Chicken"

[Icebox]

Hi everyone newbie here so please take it easy on me!

Having spent over forty years living in London and Kent, I have lost count the amount of times I have been caught out by the fickle weather in the south east. When we expect loads we get none and vice-versa, I am not expecting massive amounts but I feel we will get more than a couple of cm's.

Yes I am sitting on the fence my previous forty years have taught me that. I suggest we all just sit back, chill and enjoy the ride, after all we are entering a very cold phase by recent standards.