East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Indeed Paul!

Still my concerns stem from inter-model agreement on this set-up...I'd imagine Kent could actually do quite well as the energy that peps up the front comes from the south so the front should strengthen from the south up the frontal system and also as the low becomes a complex low then the whole lot slows right down as well...

Its a very complex set-up and therefore small changes can happen even if not forecasted in this set-up for better or maybe worse....its one of those forecasting nightmares when you've got a front that decays only to be expected to pluse back up again to some extent...

Then there is the added risk of what the 2nd system does and whether that takes too much energy from the first front or whether the first one is stronger then epxected, etc.

ps, Yamkin it looks like they still expect the easterly to come off rather then the GFS idea of a severe cold HP cell...

Edited January 4, 2010 by kold weather

[nick sussex]

Looking quit bleak here in my location for any snow of substance looking at the models...here is the 06z accumulated precip upto 72hrs:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs72sum.gif

Right in the screw zone so to speak, would struggle to get even a dusting if that came off here...

Kold please don't take this the wrong way but you seem to have been up and down with each gfs run, as one of the seasoned regulars i'm quite surprised that you've joined the gfs emotional rollercoaster! surely we've learnt that the gfs precip charts are a pile of tosh by now.

The models haven't even decided exactly what happens with that shallow low so i think from now it's down to nowcasting and watching the radar. Given that you've been on here a long time could i possibly ask you not to cause any further hysteria in this thread! unfortunately people dip in and out and see so many conflicting posts that they haven't a clue what's going on.

Again please don't take this the wrong way, you're very respected by me and many others in net weather but soon i'll need to be offering you access to my emergency prozac supply and emergency helpline number!

[Hammer]

Here's MetO's latest update for Day 6 to 15:

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Jan 2010 to Monday 18 Jan 2010:

Next weekend is expected to continue very cold with widespread frost, severe in places, and perhaps extreme in some rural spots. Patchy overnight freezing fog is also likely to form, mainly in the north, and which could linger all day in some inland valleys. Many northern and western parts of the U.K. will be dry with sunny spells, although some sleet or snow showers are possible here and there. More frequent and heavier snow showers are expected in the east and southeast, with perhaps some longer periods of snow here, with associated disruptive conditions. The rest of the period is likely to remain cold but become generally drier and more settled, with frost and fog the main problems. However coastal areas may still see a few wintry showers.

Updated: 1212 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

This is an important update really, it suggests the trend is still there for disruptive snow for at least some parts of the region. If Met Office were thinking it would get drier as the weekend started I am pretty sure they would have stated that clearly.

[rmc1987]

Interesting post from Iceberg in the Model thread...

A quick look at the ECM London ensembles shows that the cold is very likely to continue pretty much out the 18/19th of Jan atm.

A few (10/20%) going for a milder warm up from the 13th.

The GFS 00Z was not a cold outlier either and is pretty much the mean of the ECM Ensembles.

Going on to Precip and it shows a massive 10cm of snow for London between midday the 5th and midday the 6th, by the 12th it has nearly 20cms of snow for London, (enough to completely cripple London taking into account no melt).

Mean ensembles go for 5 or 6 cm by the 7th which is still alot for London, worth considering that the ensembles are lower res so the ops is more likely to be correct.

BTW this isn't a SE bias, just that we only have data for London. !!!

I'd be surprised if that London got 20cm, being well overdone I think.

I'm not expecting much but this heavy frost is pretty amazing in itself.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Something in between the zero amounts of snow and armeggedon prediction posts would be the most helpful I think.

There is lots of snow potential for several days to come, but I do think that the most extreme predictions made yesterday look less likely today.

Edited January 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[rmc1987]

This is an important update really, it suggests the trend is still there for disruptive snow for at least some parts of the region. If Met Office were thinking it would get drier as the weekend started I am pretty sure they would have stated that clearly.

Yeah but this will cover their backs if it does get snowy and disruptive.

Edited January 4, 2010 by rmc1987

[Neilsouth]

Bbc news 24 weather forecasts not going much for tuesday's snowfall or even wednesday

[Southender]

Bbc news 24 weather forecasts not going much for tuesday's snowfall or even wednesday

Pre-recorded crap. Ignore!

[kold weather]

Kold please don't take this the wrong way but you seem to have been up and down with each gfs run, as one of the seasoned regulars i'm quite surprised that you've joined the gfs emotional rollercoaster! surely we've learnt that the gfs precip charts are a pile of tosh by now.

Again please don't take this the wrong way, you're very respected by me and many others in net weather but soon i'll need to be offering you access to my emergency prozac supply and emergency helpline number!

As I said earlier I'm not actually that fussed about this set-up really, if it does give good snow then all well and good, if it doesn't then it'll make driving down to Guildford that bit easier!

Of course I'm only talking about locally, I'd expect as a whole EA+SE will do rather well, esp Kent and Norfolk and regions close to the Wash...but there is importantly good INTER-MODEL agreement with regards to my location veing in the screw zone, both the GFS and the UKMO's own NAE both agree with that idea with some light snowfall for Tuesday afternoon then maybe another dusting overnight, meanwhile 20 miles south could get as much as 5-10cms as the front strengthens over Kent...

However of course you are quite right in the fact that this is a fluid set-up and therefore small changes could quite easily bring the pepped up part of the front into Essex as well, I'm certainly not going to say that Essex isn't going to get much because at this stage its just too close to call.

[Hammer]

Yeah but this will cover their backs if it does get snowy and disruptive.

Nonsense. If the data they have suggested it would be drier, then they would state that, as they indicate for next week, at the moment, i.e. in the past few hours, Met Office still believe potential for signifcant snow in the region from Tuesday onwards, through weekend.

Of what benefit would it be to them to "cover their backs" if the data they had suggested just a few wintry showers.

[Neilsouth]

Pre-recorded crap. Ignore!

Note to self , ignore pre-recorded crap

Nothing mentioned about all that snow we had last night on the locals , typical london/essex is more important than anywhere else

[nick sussex]

Yeah but this will cover their backs if it's does get snowy.

I think the ukmo are in a no win situation here, the potential is there for serious disruption, really much depends on how strong the easterly flow is and how long it's sustained for. I've obviously not gone down the road of giving amounts of snow possible as this will probably come back to bite me, you're very brave in here if you do!

My own personal view and the same i issued a few days ago before the model chopping and changing begun is that the snow risk will extend south with northern areas and Scotland eventually becoming drier wth fewer showers, with the main risk area for the se as this has more margin for error with any east to ne flow. At the moment the cold uppers are there and its really the longevity and strength of the flow that is a little more uncertain.

Also for Neil south here can i give you the award for moaniest poster in here, you moan when they forecast snow which doesn't arrive and then moan when snow arrives which wasn't forecast! all i've seen from you the last few days is hysteria that you got some snow and then just constant moaning, why not cheer up a bit, you're due lots of snow!

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[Southender]

Post from Ian Ferguson below (From model thread)...

Exactly correct, SK. The later NAE run (arriving after us early folk had completed BBC Breakfast / radio forecasts) has a more predominant snow signal for tomorrow morning; a broader areal spread as the feature runs south and retains a more coherent look to it; and a prospect of further bands of snow follwing latter in the evening, especially into soouther-central districts (e.g., Oxon, Wilts). Incidentally the latest GM progs and UKMO thinking reduces the heavy snow risk for London/SE end of week - at least, to an extent - and revisits the same potential later in the weekend albeit confidence remain problematic (hence no advisories for now). An anticyclonic dominance takes over later next week, steadily diminishing snow potential but retaining the cold feed obviously, as expected.

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[rmc1987]

Nonsense. If the data they have suggested it would be drier, then they would state that, as they indicate for next week, at the moment, i.e. in the past few hours, Met Office still believe potential for signifcant snow in the region from Tuesday onwards, through weekend.

Of what benefit would it be to them to "cover their backs" if the data they had suggested just a few wintry showers.

Well if it turns out that way then we can't say they didn't say so. It's seems to me a few on here believe it'll be dry yet the met o are going with this potential snow spell. So what's the case? If the met o are unsure but still believe that this potential snow may fall then Im sure saying that would be better for them. If they say it'll be dry and the snow does fall then people will complain.

To me it seems they aren't sure but considering any possibility of disruptive snow is worth a mention so people are aware.

Edited January 4, 2010 by rmc1987

[yamkin]

This is an important update really, it suggests the trend is still there for disruptive snow for at least some parts of the region. If Met Office were thinking it would get drier as the weekend started I am pretty sure they would have stated that clearly.

Ian Fergusson has just written a very interesting post in the Model Discussion Thread:

Exactly correct, SK. The later NAE run (arriving after us early folk had completed BBC Breakfast / radio forecasts) has a more predominant snow signal for tomorrow morning; a broader areal spread as the feature runs south and retains a more coherent look to it; and a prospect of further bands of snow follwing latter in the evening, especially into soouther-central districts (e.g., Oxon, Wilts). Incidentally the latest GM progs and UKMO thinking reduces the heavy snow risk for London/SE end of week - at least, to an extent - and revisits the same potential later in the weekend albeit confidence remain problematic (hence no advisories for now). An anticyclonic dominance takes over later next week, steadily diminishing snow potential but retaining the cold feed obviously, as expected.

Post from Ian Ferguson below (From model thread)...

Exactly correct, SK. The later NAE run (arriving after us early folk had completed BBC Breakfast / radio forecasts) has a more predominant snow signal for tomorrow morning; a broader areal spread as the feature runs south and retains a more coherent look to it; and a prospect of further bands of snow follwing latter in the evening, especially into soouther-central districts (e.g., Oxon, Wilts). Incidentally the latest GM progs and UKMO thinking reduces the heavy snow risk for London/SE end of week - at least, to an extent - and revisits the same potential later in the weekend albeit confidence remain problematic (hence no advisories for now). An anticyclonic dominance takes over later next week, steadily diminishing snow potential but retaining the cold feed obviously, as expected.

Just posted the same quote. Apologies LeighShrimper

[Hammer]

Well if it turns out that way then we can't say they didn't say so. It's seems to me a few on here believe it'll be dry yet the met o are going with this snow spell. So what's the case?

The Met Office are posting the update as they see it, based on the interpretation of the data in front of them.

They are not issuing updates to "cover their backs" and frankly I don't understand what good it will do them if they did, in many ways they tend to urge on the side of caution in these longer term updates, so clearly this is positive they they do still believe there is potential and whilst they are not always stictly accurate, if they felt there was no or little risk of siginicant snow they would not state the word disruptive within an update.

[Southender]

Ian Fergusson has just written a very interesting post in the Model Discussion Thread:

Exactly correct, SK. The later NAE run (arriving after us early folk had completed BBC Breakfast / radio forecasts) has a more predominant snow signal for tomorrow morning; a broader areal spread as the feature runs south and retains a more coherent look to it; and a prospect of further bands of snow follwing latter in the evening, especially into soouther-central districts (e.g., Oxon, Wilts). Incidentally the latest GM progs and UKMO thinking reduces the heavy snow risk for London/SE end of week - at least, to an extent - and revisits the same potential later in the weekend albeit confidence remain problematic (hence no advisories for now). An anticyclonic dominance takes over later next week, steadily diminishing snow potential but retaining the cold feed obviously, as expected.

Just posted the same quote. Apologies LeighShrimper

Haha

Good news that there is still the chance (Albeit slim atm) of a Snowmageddon event at the weekend

Unlikely of course, but cannot be ruled out just yet.

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[kold weather]

My fears are rather strongly back up by the Met office own invent graphics which show in high detail the thinking of the NAE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Look at the rainfall and look just how little Essex/Suffolk get, very good agreement with the 06z GFS.

Also shows the strenghening of the front in Sussex and Kent, could well see 5-10cms here whilst north of the thames gets a dusting.

[Southender]

My fears are rather strongly back up by the Met office own invent graphics which show in high detail the thinking of the NAE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Look at the rainfall and look just how little Essex/Suffolk get, very good agreement with the 06z GFS.

Also shows the strenghening of the front in Sussex and Kent, could well see 5-10cms here whilst north of the thames gets a dusting.

Yeah I saw that two Kold. Just disappears over our neck of the woods.

Can't see it myself. We'll get an inch or two I reckon.

Radars at the ready.

I fully expect an upgrade from the 12z GFS as well...

[Guest FireStorm]

I'm not understanding the earlier downbeat nature on here from the 18z.

Jet stream is still heading south, low pressure isn't too much of a concern, the only possible difference is that there might not be as much snow as everyone's been expecting??

I still believe this week coming nothing much will change. We are still in for the cold front moving south, we are still bitterly cold, there is still going to be snow - Where's the problem??

If the SE overall was to get the apparent dumping I feel everyone's been lead to believe we are due and it results in the SE being "cut off from the rest of the UK" to quote other posts - yes it would be very dramatic and exciting but I cannot see that being good in the long run.

I Presume most if not all of us are of able body meaning we can venture out into the snow, snowball fights and act all silly. But there's 2 sides to every coin.

What if your elderly? Cannot get out? People cant get to you to check on you because your out in the sticks? That would be pretty frightening. I'm in my mid 20s and still fret over an icy pavement!

It does not take alot to grind the SE to a halt and even the 18z would be disruptive whether it shows 1987 snowfall or not.

I am still very pleased with the output. A Touch of realistic thought will not go a miss.

Go back over the posts of the past 48hours and count how many complaints there are of "idiot drivers", look over the news archives of the December snow. GFS is giving us what I feel to be a more reasonable stab at the week to come. Remember that the charts are more then likely to be accurate on a scenerio in the middle of what is forecast, never the extreme of one end.

In a modern day winter - we need to be thankful for the snow we do get and this week we should be kissing the snowballs of the snowmen built for the luck of snow this winter.. 20yrs odd a winter of this possible magnitude has not been seen, that alone should be savoured and with the next 3-5days? How can people be reaching for Prozac?

I Bid you all goodnight, snowy dreams and to remember, We are truely blessed in this season.. Let's not ignore that fact!

I Hope no one minds me re-posting this but in relation to the "Armageddon" posts and rants over the snow I feel it needs repeating and hopefully brings back a sence of realism and realistic thoughts. I can see where nick sussex is coming from but really, if we stop running away with our dreams and hopes and focus our attention, we wont have so much blood to clear up from the inevitable wrist slashing that occurs

[FetchCB]

I think the key there is the words "at least, to an extent". Im assuming from that the threat remains although not as severe initially but with the possibility that it may become severe.

next Weekend is an age away in model terms. If I have learnt nothing from model watching ( esp for snow) over the last 5 years is that snow in the SE appears exactly when forecast is very rarely 100% certain and is almost always made up of showers merging into longer periods of snow.

[simon65]

starting to get fog here ,temps are still very low ,drifting in from the west

Current data for Linslade

04 January 2010 13:23:31

Temperature (°C):

Current -2.1

Trend (per hour) +0.5

Average today -4.6

Wind chill -2.1

Heat Index -2.1

Dew Point -3.8

Rel Humidity 88%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 2.2 NE

Average Speed 0.7 ENE

Pressure (mb):

Current 1017.9

Trend (per hour) -0.7

[Noshowsnow]

I think the ukmo are in a no win situation here, the potential is there for serious disruption, really much depends on how strong the easterly flow is and how long it's sustained for. I've obviously not gone down the road of giving amounts of snow possible as this will probably come back to bite me, you're very brave in here if you do!

I think I'll be brave and say that there will be snow showers from time to time over the next 7 or 8 days. Nothing major just a few centimetres falling from time to time. Many places in the UK will see very little snow, others will see moderate falls. No major disruption. Business as usual.

[Snow Queen one]

IMO there is a good chance of snow next week but i feel that too many members have too high expections of what is to come. We in the far SE Mid-Kent which no one mentions had a good lot of snow before christmas and it was fun for a while. I have to say although it has been cold it is not as bad as 87 and the snow we had then was twice the amount that fell before chrismas. IMO we do not want that type of snow again it was not good for anybody except the children who went to play in it and did not have to worry about food and bills and work like most of us.

I for one am glad the threat from the low has diminished i was not looking forward to it. Our council think gritting the raods is a crime so we are always slipping and sliding around in snow anyway.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snow Queen one

[Hammer]

My fears are rather strongly back up by the Met office own invent graphics which show in high detail the thinking of the NAE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Look at the rainfall and look just how little Essex/Suffolk get, very good agreement with the 06z GFS.

Also shows the strenghening of the front in Sussex and Kent, could well see 5-10cms here whilst north of the thames gets a dusting.

Kold lets see how it does with the plotting of 15:00 and 18:00 today.