East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Coast]

Now the big question - Friday. Advisory or not?

Tomorrow

[TEITS]

Just watched the BBC forecast, appears to be another band of snow behind the first one, into Tuesday evening

Which areas were affected by the next band of snow?

[FetchCB]

Given that Friday IS 4 days away the exact track of the low pressure is subject to change. I would be surprised if Met office came out with an advisory ( 60% confidence) at this early stage

[maidstone weather]

Which areas were affected by the next band of snow?

it develops over N Mids then heads SEwards

[GSDog]

Could tunbridge wells in Kent get any snow tommorow?

It definitely looks like we're getting some tomorrow afternoon/evening and perhaps into Wednesday. It's difficult to say how much though, we'll have to wait and see.

[Southender]

Just watched the BBC forecast, appears to be another band of snow behind the first one, into Tuesday evening

Yep. This is what I alluded to in an earlier post - below

The NAE charts show ppn from around Midday tomorrow in EA, then about 3pm for the SE. This lasts until the early hours (Weds) A lull follows for a few hours, then more snow for rush hour Wednesday. It doesn't look particularly heavy across the wider area. But as always there will be heavier falls locally. Pretty good start if you ask me. Probably 5cm across a wide area, maybe 10-15cm locally by Weds lunch-time. Thats my interpretation anyway. I could be wrong of course

[londonsnow]

i'm expecting a sleety mix tomorrow here in london town due mostly on account of the timing. beyond that front clearing through mostly snow

[Snowydays]

It definitely looks like we're getting some tomorrow afternoon/evening and perhaps into Wednesday. It's difficult to say how much though, we'll have to wait and see.

More than 5cm?

[maidstone weather]

It's on the BBC website now

Looking at it more closely, the 2nd band is actually the same band as the first, but it's part of the wrap around occlusion

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVI89.png

Edited January 4, 2010 by maidstone weather

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

The B.B.C. I was wondering when they were going to cause panic to the public, was it not rain earlier this morning on the forecast? Sometimes I wonder if it's even worth listening to the forecast from them, noting like throwing caution to the wind they seem to be terrified on getting the forecast wrong it must be a case of lets take a look at Sky weather lol.

[kold weather]

The forecast is such a mess, its really hard to call what will happen because obviously the models go for varying set-ups...some gives good snows to my area, others would struggle to give a dusting so its not going to be an easy call.

To be honest I'd like the front to take just a little longer as my area tends to be a little milder in easterly airflows then surrounding parts thanks to the Thames and if it comes in peak heating like progged then that could cause some problems.

The great news is the temps at the moment seem colder then what was estimated by the models which obviously is important...

Anyway tomorrow-Wednesday is a real uncertain set-up...Friday onwards still has yet to be sorted however I remember December 2005 GFS throwing a wobbler like this only to eventually settle on its orginal idea.

[Neilsouth]

On a local note...

EVERYTHING is lovely and white here , 3cm on the ground :lol:

[kold weather]

Looking quit bleak here in my location for any snow of substance looking at the models...here is the 06z accumulated precip upto 72hrs:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs72sum.gif

Right in the screw zone so to speak, would struggle to get even a dusting if that came off here...

Edited January 4, 2010 by kold weather

[Southender]

Interesting post from Iceberg in the Model thread...

A quick look at the ECM London ensembles shows that the cold is very likely to continue pretty much out the 18/19th of Jan atm.

A few (10/20%) going for a milder warm up from the 13th.

The GFS 00Z was not a cold outlier either and is pretty much the mean of the ECM Ensembles.

Going on to Precip and it shows a massive 10cm of snow for London between midday the 5th and midday the 6th, by the 12th it has nearly 20cms of snow for London, (enough to completely cripple London taking into account no melt).

Mean ensembles go for 5 or 6 cm by the 7th which is still alot for London, worth considering that the ensembles are lower res so the ops is more likely to be correct.

BTW this isn't a SE bias, just that we only have data for London. !!!

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[yamkin]

Just watched the BBC forecast, appears to be another band of snow behind the first one, into Tuesday evening

The first band of ppn was the original lot we were meant to get late Tuesday into Wednesday. It's amazing how forecasting snow changes in just one day.

The following is from null. They have issued a Weather Warning:

This is a news release issued for the % risk of severe or extreme disruption during the period 5th - 15th January 2010. Major snowfall and extremely cold weather is on the way. This news release will be reviewed from the 7th with scope for an upgrade or update.

As many of you will be aware by now, the mercury is beginning to plunder and with it the risk of severe cold will increase as we move through into the weekend and more especially next week. We are now becoming increasingly confident that the main threat will be for Eastern areas of Britain with quite a high risk of significant snowfall, widespread severe frosts and at times blizzard conditions.

We have issued a moderate/high threat for many parts of the country including Central Southern/Southern England and some Central Areas for the possibility of Severe to Extreme disruption to travel networks, power and infrastructure. Right now the specifics remain unclear – but areas outlined are unlikely to change much.

We anticipate that numerous bands of snow will affect large portions of the United Kingdom – especially the North, East and South East. Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing for many with severe to extreme frosts becoming a common feature. The concern is with temperatures so low during the day and at night, any snow that does fall will likely accumulate quickly and stick around for a long period.

Lengthy periods of snow on the ground will lead to major disruption and the extent of the snowfall depths although varying quite significantly at the moment – will in some locations be very deep. We would strongly advise to be prepared for a very difficult and challenging 10 days ahead. Please check with your local airport before flying and leave extra time before travelling. When possible, in the worst affected areas it is advisable to avoid travelling altogether. If avoiding travel is impossible then making sure you equip the car with winter essentials is strongly advisable.

This release will be reviewed on the 7th of January 2010 with scope for an upgrade should it be necessary. Many areas, including those in the 40% risk are expected to see severe cold and lying snow through the period.

[Paul Sherman]

Looking quit bleak here in my location for any snow of substance looking at the models...here is the 06z accumulated precip upto 72hrs:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs72sum.gif

Right in the screw zone so to speak, would struggle to get even a dusting if that came off here...

Darren The GFS Is woeful with precip estimates - I am surprised you are even giving it credibility - Only on Saturdays runs it had Snow for all of yesterday across all the SE and even this afternoon, whereas the UKMO Nailed it to an East kent affair 24hrs beforehand.

Once again I will state the GFS Is very good at trends from T120 - T216

UKMO & ECMWF From T0 To T96

Paul S

[Hammer]

Looking quit bleak here in my location for any snow of substance looking at the models...here is the 06z accumulated precip upto 72hrs:

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs72sum.gif

Right in the screw zone so to speak, would struggle to get even a dusting if that came off here...

You seem a little downbeat Kold. The precip charts showing the accumalated amounts for 72hrs have proved largely inaccurate, certainly when I have reviewed them. Have you found them useful?

[kold weather]

The problem is Paul the UKMO/NAE looks nearly exactly the same with regards to the distrubution of precip, Essex really gets very little looking at it, some light snowfall possibly in the afternoon but the heavier stuff goes over Kent instead, then another band swings south over the Midlands giving a nice snowfall then looks like it starts to decay quickly as it swings towards the SE...

To be honest I'm not even that bothered about it, I just want a severe cold winter month on the CET...I've already had a good snow fix this winter and thats all I tend to need to be happy with a winter...

[Ben_Cambs]

Which areas were affected by the next band of snow?

Sorry I couldnt reply, I had to go out.

The second band looks like affecting the Midlands, East Midlands, Cambs Peterborough and Norfolk the most. It tended to fizzle out on the graphics as it headed further south

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snowman0697

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

From experience, not just this year, unless there is a stronger Easterly component we will struggle to get a dusting in south Essex. We are so far from the coast in a Northerly/North Easterly we might as well be in the midlands thread.

Eg. Feb 09 - Dusting Dec 09 - 2 inches. To get four inches to half a foot we need a big front or a more Easterly wind direction.

However PPN estimates beyond the day before are very inaccurate. We'll only really know what will happen on the day.

Edited January 4, 2010 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Bolton67]

Sorry I couldnt reply, I had to go out.

The second band looks like affecting the Midlands, East Midlands, Cambs Peterborough and Norfolk the most. It tended to fizzle out on the graphics as it headed further south

Any chance you could post that in the Mids thread? we need cheering up after ONLY our part of the UK was NOT issued an advisory for Tuesday

[Paul Sherman]

Darren I think we will be just fine between now and Sunday! Well fine if you dont have to travel to Chichester on the roads :lol:

Just to show how Woeful the GFS Is

Case Study 1

Last Friday into Saturdays Southward sinking Front with Snow

GFS Predicted the front to be active as it moved ESE - Result X

UKMO Predicted 1cm from the Front as it moved SSE - Result X

ECMWF Had the front fizzling out in the E Mids - Result 9/10

Case Study 2

Yesterdays Snow Showers

GFS Predicted vaste swathes of the SE To be "under the pinks all day" - Result X

ECMWF Predicted Snow showers as far west as London area later in the Day - Result 6/10

UKMO Had the Kent Streamer and affecting the Medway Towns and S London - Result 9/10

So I firmly believe if you hang your coat on the GFS You will get burned badly especially as they run the damn thing 4 times per day!

Regards

Paul S

[Guest FireStorm]

Tuesday brings about a moderate risk of snow for the SE corner but i think EA have better chances of seeing any snow, although it wouldn't surprise me to see snow in Kent as right now anything is possible

The person who posted the RAIN chart for Tuesday also - look at Wednesday morning

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2010/01/04/basis06/ukuk/rart/10010606_0406.gif - Freezing rain for Kent? then heavy snow... PLUS, if GFS was to verify the midday wind speeds of around 20mph would give blizzard like conditions.

the netweather 7day forecast has diminished any snow for Friday too for us.. FAX has no fronts or troughs and an easterly setting in, no northerly to speak of.

On the upside, http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVJ89.png - Front moves through then a trough.. Wednesday is looking pretty nasty

I Will err on the side of caution in posting this though, I also have noticed 06 GFS has become less trustworthy over the past 2 weeks and I used to be very fond of the 06z I Guess the new data they are using has thrown it off balance perhaps?? but thats really my own personal opinion.

[Brocken Spectre]

Source Weather Online (I have no idea how reliable they are!)

Tuesday

A band of moderate snow across northern England and Wales in the morning pushes into the Midlands and south west England with a modest accumulation in places in the afternoon. Lots of heavy snow showers too around western and eastern coasts of Scotland and England and across Northern Ireland. As this snow moves into the far south we could see some locally heavy falls into the evening and night. Most places could see a covering overnight with a hard frost. Highs of -1 to 3C.

Wednesday

The extreme south of England could see heavy falls of snow through the day. Most of the snow showers are likely to be found around eastern and western coasts of England, Scotland and Wales. Otherwise mainly dry and bright with the best sunshine across central Scotland. Overnight a widespread, severe frost develops with heavy snow showers across north east England. Highs of -3 to 2C.

[yamkin]

Source Weather Online (I have no idea how reliable they are!)

Here's MetO's latest update for Day 6 to 15:

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Jan 2010 to Monday 18 Jan 2010:

Next weekend is expected to continue very cold with widespread frost, severe in places, and perhaps extreme in some rural spots. Patchy overnight freezing fog is also likely to form, mainly in the north, and which could linger all day in some inland valleys. Many northern and western parts of the U.K. will be dry with sunny spells, although some sleet or snow showers are possible here and there. More frequent and heavier snow showers are expected in the east and southeast, with perhaps some longer periods of snow here, with associated disruptive conditions. The rest of the period is likely to remain cold but become generally drier and more settled, with frost and fog the main problems. However coastal areas may still see a few wintry showers.

Updated: 1212 on Mon 4 Jan 2010