East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[simon65]

I have to disagree.

What if we are in the start of a period of severe winters for 10 to 20 years or even longer? This is possible and we must adjust accordingly. For too long now we have been spoilt with mild winters and hot summers (spanning approximately 25 years). The economics of Scandinavian countries (or Canada) are not affected by cold snow bound weather.

spoilt with cars aswell ,i allways walk if its bad and if im in the wrong town/city at the time more the fool me

Current data for Linslade

04 January 2010 10:29:41

Temperature (°C):

Current -3.5

Trend (per hour) +1.3

Average today -5.2

Wind chill -3.5

Heat Index -3.5

Dew Point -5.2

Rel Humidity 88%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 0.7 W

Average Speed 0.0 W

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.0

Total yesterday 3.3

Total this month 3.6

Total this year 3.6

Pressure (mb):

Current 1020.1

Trend (per hour) -0.3

[Shunter]

Well the 06z op downgrades precipitation in the SE corner considerably between 24-96 hours. I would guess a total snow coverage of around 5cm tops by Saturday based on this run. Little or no precipitation tonight or from tomorrows front. Weds to Fri sees fewer showers penetrating inland due to the greater Northerly wind component.

Cold yes, memorable snow event,no, not by this run.

Will be interesting to see if the MO update their SWW's for the SE in the next hour or so. If they dont then I would say that the downgrading is more than probable.

[West Sussex Kate]

-4 right now.

[chestnuts roasting]

Beautiful winter sunshine..... harsh frost and still -3

not looking more than 2 days ahead as it WILL change so lets all enjoy this great winter

as TEITS knows once the front passes through tomorrow we will get decent snow showers that will spread inland

ENJOY

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I have to disagree.

What if we are in the start of a period of severe winters for 10 to 20 years or even longer? This is possible and we must adjust accordingly. For too long now we have been spoilt with mild winters and hot summers (spanning approximately 25 years). The economics of Scandinavian countries (or Canada) are not affected by cold snow bound weather.

I'm not sure I have suggested anywhere that this country doesn't need to be better prepared for cold weather? It does indeed.

I further believe that trends are dictated more by natural factors and the cold winters could well become increase in number again. I hope that is the case.

However, what I am also saying is that if, hopefully, tha majority if not all of us end up with, say, 10 to 15cms of snow and very low temps to keep it there - then surely this is enough to keep us happy whilst at the same time being able to enjoy it whilst still having a cosy house and running hot water etc at the same time.

Days of snow showers from the north sea along with some pleasant winter sunshine and hard frosts is more my idea of fun than a dislocating blizzard that is all I am saying.

No doubt the majority will disagree with that, There was a time when I would have too, but then you learn to be more realistic about things.

Edited January 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Coast]

Will be interesting to see if the MO update their SWW's for the SE in the next hour or so. If they dont then I would say that the downgrading is more than probable.

Based on one run?

[nick sussex]

I asked this yesterday but think it got lost and i didnt get a reply.

In the USA in place around the great lakes, NYC and Washington DC, do you think there are people on weather forums such as this one biting their nails to see if their wish of deep snow arrives or is their snow more or less nailed on from T144 once it appears on the charts? Is this simply because the lakes are so huge a greater amount of convection occurs and snow is more or less guaranteed?

Lake effect snow is more an early season situation for areas normally on the southern and se areas of the Lakes, this doesn't effect NYC or Washington D.C., these are too far away. Normally later in the winter the Lakes freeze if its been cold and this therefore negates the Lake Effect, they still have scenarios with lots of uncertainty generally where you get those big east coast storms where the track isn't nailed until much closer in. Sometimes we see those active cold fronts moving se and these are normally quite easy to forecast, because of the large landmass its easier generally though to forecast very cold conditions as there is so much cold air to draw on to the north.

In the UK easterlies by their nature often have a relatively narrow pool of the coldest air which gets advected westwards on the southern flank of the high, in terms of the North Sea this is great at acting as a snow machine but you need the right set up, deep low to the south with a strong flow and some instability. The colder the upper air the better as you're looking for the biggest differential between the sea temps and the flow across it.

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[Southender]

Errr?

Rain heading our way?

That cannot be right?

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[pureasthedriven]

Based on one run?

Despite the variations, still looks a pretty tidy run for this neck of the woods, with plenty of snow opps out to 168 and another shot at a 'proper' scandi high out into la la land. Oh, and pretty damn cold throughout, too!

[maidstone weather]

I'm interested in the MetO's "risk of a more significant disruption event on Friday." in the SE summary today - the charts are still not showing it on the FAX's etc, despite Tomasz showing it yesterday and Dan Corbett playing it down to a certain extent and pushing it into Saturday instead.

This setup reminds me of the beginning of March 2005 when 30cm fell on the Downs because a stationary area of Low pressure was located over the SE.

[Shunter]

Based on one run?

Sorry no..based on all runs since yesterdays 06z when they initially issued their warning. If their own models show increased precipaitation from Tues to Friday in the SE then I would expect the SWW to be upgraded as per normal process. We can then happily disgard the 06z op.

[Southender]

I'm interested in the MetO's "risk of a more significant disruption event on Friday." in the SE summary today - the charts are still not showing it on the FAX's etc, despite Tomasz showing it yesterday and Dan Corbett playing it down to a certain extent and pushing it into Saturday instead.

This setup reminds me of the beginning of March 2005 when 30cm fell on the Downs because a stationary area of Low pressure was located over the SE.

Isn't that the low that is now progged to head way to our S and E now?

Maybe just maybe it will head the right way and give us a pounding although this looks unlikely judging the last couple of model outputs.

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Discombobulation Man]

Well I've loved all the highs and lows of the models over the last 3 days, the ECM 12z from Friday is still the chart of dreams for my area, closely followed by yesterdays GFS 12z. . .

But alas, after all the amazing projected synoptics and as we get nearer the time I'm left with mainly dry apart from some snizzle from the tuesday/wednesday saga and maybe a few flurries from the weekend.

However the LOW that was projected to bring in the beast for the weekend hasn't even formed yet so there's potentially still a lot up for grabs and that low could easily shift back NW and bring us back in to play

[Tom D]

Ignore that snow/rain chart, I'm pretty sure there's a glitch there.

As for the 00/06z GFS runs, don't worry that it isn't showing the easterly it has previously been showing, by this evening it may be there again.

The ECM, GEM and to a lesser extent the UKMO all came into agreement that the low would be further north and west over Europe with the High the same, thus bringing an easterly to England and possibly Scotland depending on how much it changes.

The other scenario is that the GEM will go back to what it has said all along (which is similar to the GFS 00/06z runs) and the 12z ECM will show the same, which is the high building over the UK.

[Roadrunner]

Lake effect snow is more an early season situation for areas normally on the southern and se areas of the Lakes, this doesn't effect NYC or Washington D.C., these are too far away. Normally later in the winter the Lakes freeze if its been cold and this therefore negates the Lake Effect, they still have scenarios with lots of uncertainty generally where you get those big east coast storms where the track isn't nailed until much closer in. Sometimes we see those active cold fronts moving se and these are normally quite easy to forecast, because of the large landmass its easier generally though to forecast very cold conditions as there is so much cold air to draw on to the north.

In the UK easterlies by their nature often have a relatively narrow pool of the coldest air which gets advected westwards on the southern flank of the high, in terms of the North Sea this is great at acting as a snow machine but you need the right set up, deep low to the south with a strong flow and some instability. The colder the upper air the better as you're looking for the biggest differential between the sea temps and the flow across it.

Cheers Nick, i should have added that does the atlantic play its part for NYC and Washinton DC - my geography isnt that bad!!! Cheers for the answer pal and hope the orders for prozac are kept at a minimum over the next few days.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I expect something of a half way house. A less extreme version of yesterday, but still with the high far north enough to give snow showers across a wide enough area.

And staying very cold. The best of all worlds as far as I am concerned - so I hop that sceanio comes off tbh.

[Hammer]

Well the 06z op downgrades precipitation in the SE corner considerably between 24-96 hours. I would guess a total snow coverage of around 5cm tops by Saturday based on this run. Little or no precipitation tonight or from tomorrows front. Weds to Fri sees fewer showers penetrating inland due to the greater Northerly wind component.

Cold yes, memorable snow event,no, not by this run.

Will be interesting to see if the MO update their SWW's for the SE in the next hour or so. If they dont then I would say that the downgrading is more than probable.

Shunter, the Met Office will not be sitting there clicking through the frames of the 06z GFS run to determine what they will do with their advisories or warnings for the week ahead. The word downgrade is used far to often after 1 run. If you read the Met Office site, you will see in the early hours of this morning, they actually put together quite a wintry outlook from Tuesday onwards, nothing in the last 6 hours has changed that.

[nick sussex]

Well the 06z op downgrades precipitation in the SE corner considerably between 24-96 hours. I would guess a total snow coverage of around 5cm tops by Saturday based on this run. Little or no precipitation tonight or from tomorrows front. Weds to Fri sees fewer showers penetrating inland due to the greater Northerly wind component.

Cold yes, memorable snow event,no, not by this run.

Will be interesting to see if the MO update their SWW's for the SE in the next hour or so. If they dont then I would say that the downgrading is more than probable.

If you're looking at the gfs precip charts you're wasting your time as they are useless with convective scenarios, as for the gfs 06hrs run its been often way off during the last 10 days. In european blocking set ups the ecm and ukmo are the ones to follow, even though the gfs 06hrs run brings me upper air near -16 down here i'm discounting it!

In terms of your projected snow amounts your area is likely to see way above that, i'd put the eastern area of the north Downs as one of my very favoured locations with significant snowfall. In terms of the pattern I expect the se to see significant disruption, these areas have more margin for error with the trend in the models.

By the way NOAA across the pond have discounted the gfs 00hrs and its ensemble mean which would then suggest the gfs 06hrs run is also a pile of tosh as that has a similar upstream pattern.

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[Shunter]

Shunter, the Met Office will not be sitting there clicking through the frames of the 06z GFS run to determine what they will do with their advisories or warnings for the week ahead. The word downgrade is used far to often after 1 run. If you read the Met Office site, you will see in the early hours of this morning, they actually put together quite a wintry outlook from Tuesday onwards, nothing in the last 6 hours has changed that.

Hope you are right mate.

However in order to back up their forecasts, standard procedure would dictate an updated SWW to compliment this as the event is only 24-48 hours away.

[snowspotter]

Without being rude I have to say there are some ridiculous posts on here about lack of snow showing on the 6z. Cold High with easterly flow plus low pressure to our south is going to mean snow. I find it rather annoying to be honest. Plus its cold out there in case you have not noticed and looks like that for at least 10 days plus.

If people hang on to every single run they will end up nervous wrecks and manically depressed

Cold is here and snow will follow

[Coast]

Just crept up to the heady heights of -3.0 DgC in Burgess Hill. Am I going to brave it lunchtime for the first post-Christmas, weight loosing, bike ride in the freezing fog and risk hypothermia?

[Hammer]

Hope you are right mate.

However in order to back up their forecasts, standard procedure would dictate an updated SWW to compliment this as the event is only 24-48 hours away.

Shunter, sure the Met Office will update and adjust their advisories and warnings, I guess the point I was making is the GFS 06z is not really of any interest to them in the sense they will be taking in to consideration the data they have to hand. Esp with regards to PPN etc.

[Roadrunner]

If you're looking at the gfs precip charts you're wasting your time as they are useless with convective scenarios, as for the gfs 06hrs run its been often way off during the last 10 days. In european blocking set ups the ecm and ukmo are the ones to follow, even though the gfs 06hrs run brings me upper air near -16 down here i'm discounting it!

In terms of your projected snow amounts your area is likely to see way above that, i'd put the eastern area of the north Downs as one of my very favoured locations with significant snowfall. In terms of the pattern I expect the se to see significant disruption, these areas have more margin for error with the trend in the models.

By the way NOAA across the pond have discounted the gfs 00hrs and its ensemble mean which would then suggest the gfs 06hrs run is also a pile of tosh as that has a similar upstream pattern.

All take note in bold above from Nick. If NOAA are discounting something then you are advised to listen! I aint got a clue what they talk about on NOAA as it's like they talk a different language. Thank god Mr Sussex has passed the GCSE in NOAA talk!

[Noshowsnow]

Without any doubt the Met Office will begin to downgrade the weather warnings for this week, they will have to because these are not only used by the general public but for businesses as well. Now the front is moving further to the south than was forecast early yesterday there is very little chance of the heavy prolonged snowstorm for East Anglia and the South East. We will still have very cold nights, and a few showers from time to time.

[Ben_Cambs]

All take note in bold above from Nick. If NOAA are discounting something then you are advised to listen! I aint got a clue what they talk about on NOAA as it's like they talk a different language. Thank god Mr Sussex has passed the GCSE in NOAA talk!

06z has always been the most unreliable run by far! And the Met havent updated the warnings yet, as they never update warnings before the current time!