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East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

kold weather

By kold weather
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Guest FireStorm

Guest FireStorm

Posted
Posted (edited)

I'm not understanding the earlier downbeat nature on here from the 18z.

Jet stream is still heading south, low pressure isn't too much of a concern, the only possible difference is that there might not be as much snow as everyone's been expecting??

I still believe this week coming nothing much will change. We are still in for the cold front moving south, we are still bitterly cold, there is still going to be snow - Where's the problem??

If the SE overall was to get the apparent dumping I feel everyone's been lead to believe we are due and it results in the SE being "cut off from the rest of the UK" to quote other posts - yes it would be very dramatic and exciting but I cannot see that being good in the long run.

I Presume most if not all of us are of able body meaning we can venture out into the snow, snowball fights and act all silly. But there's 2 sides to every coin.

What if your elderly? Cannot get out? People cant get to you to check on you because your out in the sticks? That would be pretty frightening. I'm in my mid 20s and still fret over an icy pavement!

It does not take alot to grind the SE to a halt and even the 18z would be disruptive whether it shows 1987 snowfall or not.

I am still very pleased with the output. A Touch of realistic thought will not go a miss.

Go back over the posts of the past 48hours and count how many complaints there are of "idiot drivers", look over the news archives of the December snow. GFS is giving us what I feel to be a more reasonable stab at the week to come. Remember that the charts are more then likely to be accurate on a scenerio in the middle of what is forecast, never the extreme of one end.

In a modern day winter - we need to be thankful for the snow we do get and this week we should be kissing the snowballs of the snowmen built for the luck of snow this winter.. 20yrs odd a winter of this possible magnitude has not been seen, that alone should be savoured and with the next 3-5days? How can people be reaching for Prozac?

I Bid you all goodnight, snowy dreams and to remember, We are truely blessed in this season.. Let's not ignore that fact!

Edited by FireStorm
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Very good post FS, I think the problem was the 12z GFS and the UKMO were both showing possible exceptional snowfalls, then added to that the hints thrown the beeb and I think a lot of us got very excited...the 18z was a bit movement away from that even though in its own right it is still a fairly snowy run and at times severely cold run.

Anyway down to -2C here, not a patch on what places further to the north have right now as the Thames is doing its usual modifying job, still its giving a good frost from the looks of things.

Luton is one of the cold spots at the moment down at -5C, the further SE you go the less cold it becomes...makes a change from having to use the word milder in winter thats for sure!

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Recent BBC forecasts have shown the snow for Tuesday and Wednesday being confined to the coast.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

I'm not understanding the earlier downbeat nature on here from the 18z.

Jet stream is still heading south, low pressure isn't too much of a concern, the only possible difference is that there might not be as much snow as everyone's been expecting??

I still believe this week coming nothing much will change. We are still in for the cold front moving south, we are still bitterly cold, there is still going to be snow - Where's the problem??

If the SE overall was to get the apparent dumping I feel everyone's been lead to believe we are due and it results in the SE being "cut off from the rest of the UK" to quote other posts - yes it would be very dramatic and exciting but I cannot see that being good in the long run.

I Presume most if not all of us are of able body meaning we can venture out into the snow, snowball fights and act all silly. But there's 2 sides to every coin.

What if your elderly? Cannot get out? People cant get to you to check on you because your out in the sticks? That would be pretty frightening. I'm in my mid 20s and still fret over an icy pavement!

It does not take alot to grind the SE to a halt and even the 18z would be disruptive whether it shows 1987 snowfall or not.

I am still very pleased with the output. A Touch of realistic thought will not go a miss.

Go back over the posts of the past 48hours and count how many complaints there are of "idiot drivers", look over the news archives of the December snow. GFS is giving us what I feel to be a more reasonable stab at the week to come. Remember that the charts are more then likely to be accurate on a scenerio in the middle of what is forecast, never the extreme of one end.

In a modern day winter - we need to be thankful for the snow we do get and this week we should be kissing the snowballs of the snowmen built for the luck of snow this winter.. 20yrs odd a winter of this possible magnitude has not been seen, that alone should be savoured and with the next 3-5days? How can people be reaching for Prozac?

I Bid you all goodnight, snowy dreams and to remember, We are truely blessed in this season.. Let's not ignore that fact!

I'm 67 years of age and have nothing like the agility that I once had but I find that walking in fresh dry snow there is no problem, you just take a little more care. The problems really arise on the icy bits but I will walk on the snow rather than the ice. The same applies to driving - people these days have no idea how to judge the different ice/snow/slush covered surfaces in fact there are many different types of such surfaces from the extremely s***e - how did I get myself into this mess to the being able to make progress at reasonable speeds.

Although I love the lovely warm summers most of all, for a winter I would still prefer a constant -5C max (which we very rarely get). Funnily enough it feels warmer most of the time when it is like that and there is a reason for it which is very complicated.

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

OK, time for the 00z and it never seems to be good news...The last BBC forecast (BBC News 24 at 3:30) has bugger all ppn up to Wenesday now. The carrot and the donkey again??

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

OK, time for the 00z and it never seems to be good news...The last BBC forecast (BBC News 24 at 3:30) has bugger all ppn up to Wenesday now. The carrot and the donkey again??

All night the forecasts have shown snow confined to the coasts. Cant understand it to be honest.

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

Fingers, toes and eyes crossed eh?

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Fingers, toes and eyes crossed eh?

The latest models have shown more widespread snow in eastern areas tuesday to thursday havent they? Or am i mistaken.

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

The GFS has only got to Tuesday 18:00 on the NW datacentre. Are you looking at Wetterzentrale?

But yeah, as far as it goes, the band coming down from Scotland on Monday night/Tuesday does seem to hold some strength and it gets to the SE around 15:00 Tuesday, so either the BBC or GFS are wrong, even at this timeframe.

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

The GFS has only got to Tuesday 18:00 on the NW datacentre. Are you looking at Wetterzentrale?

But yeah, as far as it goes, the band coming down from Scotland on Monday night/Tuesday does seem to hold some strength and it gets to the SE around 15:00 Tuesday, so either the BBC or GFS are wrong, even at this timeframe.

Its currently out to +51hrs, and looks good for convection off the north sea in a fairly still north-easterly to me.

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

Looking even better for Kent at +60 on the 00z, heavy band of ppn coming in off the N Sea!

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Looking even better for Kent at +60 on the 00z, heavy band of ppn coming in off the N Sea!

Looking good. Out to +72 and the NE'lies look fairly potent off the north sea. Should move showers quite far inland by my reckoning.

Out to +99 and the low in the med seems to be rapping itself up nicely, and moving slowly north. Will it get far enough north?

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

Well, for a change, it seems that the 00z is looking good. But it does seem that the ppn from the low over Europe wont get to the UK by Saturday, the main bulk of it at least.

I have just got to 3:00am on Saturday (aka +123) while saying that, but really need to get to bed, so will check how it varies with the 6z. Anyway night all, or is it just Danm here? Night Dan!

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Well, for a change, it seems that the 00z is looking good. But it does seem that the ppn from the low over Europe wont get to the UK by Saturday, the main bulk of it at least.

I have just got to 3:00am on Saturday (aka +123) while saying that, but really need to get to bed, so will check how it varies with the 6z. Anyway night all, or is it just Danm here? Night Dan!

Night mate! Having seen the whole run, the 00z is an even bigger downgrade than the 18z for friday/saturday.

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southbank Enthusiast

southbank

Posted
  • Location: south london, sutton
  • Location: south london, sutton
Posted

Rather ironic that the models are now starting to trend away from the potential snow storm this coming weekend . Looks like the low doesn't get far enough north / west for the uk . It was always a tough call doing a week long forecast on Sunday as what the models were initially trending too was right on the cusp of realistic forecasting but they did say "potentially" could happen ....... So it was basically in the typical UK weather scene a classic Jim Bowen moment of " Take a look at what you could of had"

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smith25 Contributor

smith25

Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
Posted

Its not the "models" that have downgraded slightly its just 1 model and thats the GFS which since its upgrade it has been acting funny. I would pay more atttention to the ECM and the METO for the coming week to be honest and start getting worried if they start downgrading.

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fatyido Explorer

fatyido

Posted
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs
  • Location: St. Neots, south west cambs
Posted

Its not the "models" that have downgraded slightly its just 1 model and thats the GFS which since its upgrade it has been acting funny. I would pay more atttention to the ECM and the METO for the coming week to be honest and start getting worried if they start downgrading.

Im sorry, but everyone is getting so excited at something that im now convinced is not gonna happen. This has been the biggest 'build up' since ive been on here, and now the snow is getting further and further away, especially for central areas. Where are the frequent heavy snow showers from the east ? Where is the bitter strong easterly wind ? All we are hoping for now are weather fronts moving down from the north, which will obviously weaken as they track south. The 'snow storms' that I read on here for the week end are no where to be seen on the charts. Please people this is not New York..!! The showers will continue to affect around the coasts and kent, but do not penetrate inland. All in all, a major let down - yet again - and I really think everyone on here should lower their expectations by quite abit. The majority will by very cold and dry, maybe affected with a passing light dusting from fronts moving through. Im not doom and gloom, and will continue to watch every forecast, just being alittle realistic. Good luck to all though...

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Looks outside , nope staying in lol! :clap:

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Hurricane Debby Enthusiast

Hurricane Debby

Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
Posted

Good lord, not saying it was cold last night here but I just had to take a double take outside and thought it had been snowing but its actually frost ! My weather station is recording -3.7 this morning. Why couldn't this have happened when I was off !! I've got to go back to sodding work this morning

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Neil

Are the roads bad in canterbury...I've got to drive from herne bay to canterbury and wonder if it's worth it!!

Well the roads are bad here , the motorway was awful in the early hours

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Updraft Rookie

Updraft

Posted
  • Location: Dover, East Kent | 34m asl
  • Location: Dover, East Kent | 34m asl
Posted (edited)

Nothing measurable here, a little on the grass and cars and a few roofs and paths.

Minus 3 though with a realfeel of minus 16 ouch!

Edited by Updraft
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