East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Coast]

Without any doubt the Met Office will begin to downgrade the weather warnings for this week, they will have to because these are not only used by the general public but for businesses as well.

Again, as stated above by several members, this assumption is based on one run. I think the MetO will be looking at much more data in a broader spectrum and wider timescale.

Look at the bigger picture and trends, then watch the radar and lampposts, you may be pleasantly surprised and a lot less frazzled!

Could you also put your location in your profile so we can all see what area you're from (I'm beginning to sound like John Holmes!!! )

[Roadrunner]

06z has always been the most unreliable run by far! And the Met havent updated the warnings yet, as they never update warnings before the current time!

ECM 12z for me has been the most consistent so far this winter. I see Metcheck has a warning out now

[Southender]

The NAE charts show ppn from around Midday tomorrow in EA, then about 3pm for the SE. This lasts until the early hours (Weds) A lull follows for a few hours, then more snow for rush hour Wednesday. It doesn't look particularly heavy across the wider area. But as always there will be heavier falls locally. Pretty good start if you ask me. Probably 5cm across a wide area, maybe 10-12cm locally by Weds lunch-time. Thats my interpretation anyway. I could be wrong of course.

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[nick sussex]

All take note in bold above from Nick. If NOAA are discounting something then you are advised to listen! I aint got a clue what they talk about on NOAA as it's like they talk a different language. Thank god Mr Sussex has passed the GCSE in NOAA talk!

I've posted a longer description of their discussions on the model thread and would hope that people take some notice, they have thrown out the gfs for eastern areas of the USA which means that downstream in western europe it's a non starter.

[PureOcean]

Been out sledging, snow fight and had fun. Also driven the area, and Whitstable in Kent is the deepest snow and has taken a direct hit compared to others.

This is a shot of the sea, and the road by the sea and my view!

[Noshowsnow]

Again, as stated above by several members, this assumption is based on one run. I think the MetO will be looking at much more data in a broader spectrum and wider timescale.

Look at the bigger picture and trends, then watch the radar and lampposts, you may be pleasantly surprised and a lot less frazzled!

Thanks for your advice.

[Hammer]

Without any doubt the Met Office will begin to downgrade the weather warnings for this week, they will have to because these are not only used by the general public but for businesses as well. Now the front is moving further to the south than was forecast early yesterday there is very little chance of the heavy prolonged snowstorm for East Anglia and the South East. We will still have very cold nights, and a few showers from time to time.

Ok so it is possible I have taken the bait and your just a wind up merchant, but perhaps your not, the Met Office will update and amend their advisories as required. Just 6 hours ago they updated the regional forecasts indicating disruptive snow for much of this region, certainly some parts will see this it would seem. Now unless they allow the local cleaner to do those updates without any peer review, you can be sure the Met Office are quite happy there is still going to be significant snow in our region.

[Coast]

Been out sledging, snow fight and had fun. Also driven the area, and Whitstable in Kent is the deepest snow and has taken a direct hit compared to others.

Mmmmm, makes me hungry just looking at it!

[nick sussex]

Without any doubt the Met Office will begin to downgrade the weather warnings for this week, they will have to because these are not only used by the general public but for businesses as well. Now the front is moving further to the south than was forecast early yesterday there is very little chance of the heavy prolonged snowstorm for East Anglia and the South East. We will still have very cold nights, and a few showers from time to time.

I'm sorry but this is absolute nonsense, without doubt your post is misleading and given the emotional rollercoaster in this thread liable to cause more hysteria! the so called heavy snowstorm was if you bothered to listen to the forecast came with the caveat that there was alot of uncertainty. Anyway there will be loads of snow before then for the se so why worry!

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick sussex

[chestnuts roasting]

Without being rude I have to say there are some ridiculous posts on here about lack of snow showing on the 6z. Cold High with easterly flow plus low pressure to our south is going to mean snow. I find it rather annoying to be honest. Plus its cold out there in case you have not noticed and looks like that for at least 10 days plus.

If people hang on to every single run they will end up nervous wrecks and manically depressed

Cold is here and snow will follow

HERE HERE

well done snow spotter

as you get older sometimes you just know its gonna snow

[PureOcean]

Mmmmm, makes me hungry just looking at it!

And that photo I uploaded showed the Oyster beds.... So maybe I will get an Oyster for Lunch or two... Good idea

[Ben_Cambs]

I expect the Met to update their warnings and advisories and today probably put out an advisory for Friday for most of the region

[PureOcean]

I'm sorry but this is absolute nonsense, without doubt your post is misleading and given the emotional rollercoaster in this thread liable to cause more hysteria! the so called heavy snowstorm was if you bothered to listen to the forecast came with the caveat that there was alot of uncertainty. Anyway there will be loads of snow before then for the se so why worry!

Spot on! Loads of snow over teh next 10 days, will be on and off all over the country and the south east included. Friday or Saturday I think could get snow, it totally depends on how much power the low generates, but the warm sea will give it lots of moisture, I would expect action for sure in the south east. But at the end of the day its cold, its winter and its nnice to finally have a great winter rather than wind and rain!

[loveletter]

-6 a couple of hours ago when I got up -2 at the moment .

Praying to God we get no snow tomorrow hopeing he will hear my prayers lol hate the snow

[simon65]

HERE HERE

well done snow spotter

as you get older sometimes you just know its gonna snow

how true ,my mum is 73 shes got a head ache and the Grand union canal if frozen ,she said its gonna snow ,you got to love em ,mothers that is

Current data for Linslade

04 January 2010 11:18:53

Temperature (°C):

Current -3.0

Trend (per hour) +1.4

Average today -5.1

Wind chill -3.0

Heat Index -3.0

Dew Point -4.7

Rel Humidity 88%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 1.6 NE

Average Speed 0.0 ENE

Pressure (mb):

Current 1019.5

Trend (per hour) -0.5

[Roadrunner]

I've posted a longer description of their discussions on the model thread and would hope that people take some notice, they have thrown out the gfs for eastern areas of the USA which means that downstream in western europe it's a non starter.

Yeah just saw that Nick, cheers. If ECM continues the GFS "trend" i'll be worried a little but for now i aint panicing yet after hearing NOAA's observations. A Feb 91 event would be great but just a decent snow cover would do for starters.

[loveletter]

I have panic attacks in the snow so read up a lot on here to see if I will get snow.

The last few days on here felt like I been reading up on the start of the 7 years tribulation the way some people been going on lol

[TEITS]

Met O have updated tomorrows warnings. Now suggesting 15-20cm of snow for Cambs, Norfolk, Peterborough.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

[maidstone weather]

Met O have updated tomorrows warnings. Now suggesting 15-20cm of snow for Cambs, Norfolk, Peterborough.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

From what I can see, that's probably more likely for Northern England as they are part of the same advisory?

[Southender]

Met O have updated tomorrows warnings. Now suggesting 15-20cm of snow for Cambs, Norfolk, Peterborough.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

Yep. I expect the rest of the region to follow...

[maidstone weather]

ooh there goes the SE too

doesn't really say much though!

So.. an early warning for the Midlands then? or just nothing at all! :lol:

Edited January 4, 2010 by maidstone weather

[TEITS]

From what I can see, that's probably more likely for Northern England as they are part of the same advisory?

No its for Peterborough, Cambs, Norfolk. :lol:

If these areas aren't at risk then they wouldn't be included. Also looking at the NAE, GFS this fully supports the idea of snow around Wash, Lincs, E midlands area.

[Matt12]

Met O have updated tomorrows warnings. Now suggesting 15-20cm of snow for Cambs, Norfolk, Peterborough.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Do you think it's quite possible/likely that the snow will reach further inland on Wednesday, say to East Herts, TEITS?

[FetchCB]

From what I can see, that's probably more likely for Northern England as they are part of the same advisory?

but it is an upgrade for the South East as previously the weather warning only included the eastern areas of the South east but this extends a lot further west with the warning of travel disruption

[Hammer]

From what I can see, that's probably more likely for Northern England as they are part of the same advisory?

Not correct. The advisory of 15-20cm's is for the regions stated by TEITS. In fact pretty much for the overall region that this thread relates to, the important statement to consider is as follows.

"snow will become heavier during Tuesday afternoon and evening, with an increasing risk of disruption to transport networks."

Edited January 4, 2010 by Hammer