East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Archie_Lewis]

The Tue/Wed event is still on. It's just that the Tuesday snow event will be delayed and WILL slowly move further East later in the night.

Wednesday is going to be very interesting in the SE with quite a lot of snow.

Friday is really a big snowfall event to look out for as well in the SE.

Here's the MetO update for days 3 to 5:

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Snow showers or longer spells of snow will give further accumulations, risk of a more significant disruption event on Friday. Continuing very cold with severe frosts and occasionally strong winds.

Updated: 1840 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

There is a very strong SE windflow tied in with this system!

Therefore it will make things difficult to push east, if there was no windflow the system would of made a bullseye for our region!

[Southender]

to the more knowledgeable non-ramper posters..

with the current FAX charts - Channel low brings in more of an easterly flow over the coming days, this would be likely to push everything further west as GFS progged in the 12z - would this also not mean the easterly, draws back across the north sea enhancing the risk of modification so theres a likelyhood of heavy snow to affect EA/SE

Am I anywhere close or...?

Thats the way I see it. But I not knowledgeable!

It maybe a case of missing tomorrow's event, to get something better later in the week. Risky, but looks like our only hope now...

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[yamkin]

There is a very strong SE windflow tied in with this system!

Therefore it will make things difficult to push east, if there was no windflow the system would of made a bullseye for our region!

Just wait and see tomorrow night. I still believe the snow will spread further East tomorrow night. Last night I was very surprised with the light dusting of snow which was not forecast. It appeared there was a sudden change of wind direction.

[Matt12]

BTW has anyone noticed the band of snow/precip that is intensifying other the north-west of england, moving south eastwardards? I don't think this was forecasted, and may fizzle out before reaching the south-east, but worth keeping an eye on.

P.S maybe this was the first band of precip that was forecasted. Seems a tad early though

Edited January 4, 2010 by Matt12

[BarnetBlizzard]

Oh so now we miss the event for tommorow. By the time we get to friday there won't be an event :-I getting a bit fed up that evrywhere in the Uk is getting some snow apart from the western part of our region.

[kold weather]

Looking at the airmass the low pressure system develops a region of much more marginal air over our region, probably why those forecasts have rain/sleet in the lighter stuff...need that low to develop further east, very possible still!

the ECM by the way looks VERY good for Thursday eveing, a good ENE flow developing and winds look perfect for a streamer to develop...wouldn't bet against several troughs coming through as well between the Thursday-Saturday...

[tinybill]

Thats the way I see it. But I not knowledgeable!

It maybe a case of missing tomorrow's event, to get something better later in the week.

well if my maths are right Julie on BBC to-night said Tuesday night any thing up 4 inches and Wednesday we could get easily 8 inches

[Guest FireStorm]

Thats the way I see it. But I not knowledgeable!

It maybe a case of missing tomorrow's event, to get something better later in the week. Risky, but looks like our only hope now...

In which way do you see the event that is supposed to happen tomorrow and how do you see it being missed?

[Southender]

Looking at the airmass the low pressure system develops a region of much more marginal air over our region, probably why those forecasts have rain/sleet in the lighter stuff...need that low to develop further east, very possible still!

the ECM by the way looks VERY good for Thursday eveing, a good ENE flow developing and winds look perfect for a streamer to develop...wouldn't bet against several troughs coming through as well between the Thursday-Saturday...

So not only is it too far West, we have a mild sector aswell. Only in the SE!! You have to laugh really.

Kold. If you was to stick you neck on the line. Would you say the NAE has the ppn too far west?

[Guest FireStorm]

Looking at the airmass the low pressure system develops a region of much more marginal air over our region, probably why those forecasts have rain/sleet in the lighter stuff...need that low to develop further east, very possible still!

the ECM by the way looks VERY good for Thursday eveing, a good ENE flow developing and winds look perfect for a streamer to develop...wouldn't bet against several troughs coming through as well between the Thursday-Saturday...

marginal air over the region, warmer core? and your referring to the low in the north sea that appears to cross SW over the region?

Also see my previous post please - am interested on your thoughts

[danm]

Northern/Central Scotland around Aviemore is getting hammered at the moment, check out the A95 cameras: http://www.trafficscotland.org/lev/index.aspx

Give us some of that snow, god damn it!

Edited January 4, 2010 by danm

[Southender]

In which way do you see the event that is supposed to happen tomorrow and how do you see it being missed?

Snow to the W of London tomorrow afternoon/evening. Sweet spot Gloucs/Wilts/Hants. Maybe a cm or two in our region by Weds afternoon. Sleet & snow showers to follow in a ESE wind. Becoming heavier as we move towards the end of the week, which could give some very good accumulations in EA/SE, especially if any streamers setup.

But, that's a newbie perspective. Someone like Kold, Steve M will give a better guide.

[dubmuffin]

"Looking at the airmass the low pressure system develops a region of much more marginal air over our region, probably why those forecasts have rain/sleet in the lighter stuff...need that low to develop further east, very possible still!"

Here we are sitting in these sub zero temps and the low with it's chance of snow has the audacity to bring in marginal air - whatever next, someone will be promising us a snowfest in 4 days time next!

[hobbielancie]

Feeling a bit of a plonker now as I have been saying to friends that Norfolk is going to get hit hard. Ho Hum, maybe not now. Any chance the snow belt we do a loop and cross Suffolk/Norfolk?:huh::huh:

[Dean E]

I really hope I don't get rain here in south east hampshire! Would be a waste to us southerners really!

Snow is rare here :huh:

[Ruislipredbee]

It's amazing how quickly you get used to the temps when there's no breeze isn't it? I walked home from the tube just now thinking oh it's not really that cold, only to then notice a fairly hard frost on the ground and come home to the good lady moaning that I'd left a full washing up bowl outside that is now a solid block of ice!

Yes just put our rubbish out and it is fffreezing :huh:

We will get snow Tuesday evening then all the way to sunday on and off im going for a max this week of -12 i think i might get it!

[yukichon]

Can someone please explain to me, a novice, how you can get rain when the temp is 1 degree and snow at 6 degrees ??

Also, what happened to the Armageddon prediction for Friday .... like I have said before on here, there seems to be a pattern of a big build up followed by an even bigger let down :huh:

[ribster]

Completely different forecast on channel 4 just now, showed heavy snow overnight tonight and during the day tomorrow, I think they must have got that a day early!

And what has happened to the forum this winter, it seems to have been invaded by whiners, have they all come over from TWO or something?

Edited January 4, 2010 by ribster

[Roadrunner]

Channel 4 weather at 8pm just had snow over London and SE for tomorrow from lunchtime onwards plus snow in EA & SE for Thurs and Fri. just goes to show either no-one knows whats gonna happen or the BBC are, as usual, crap.

[snowfish]

how the metoffice currently see it -

Headline:

A severe frost overnight with snow for some.

This Evening and Tonight:

Continuing very cold with a severe frost but staying dry. Clear to start but the cloud will increase from the north during the night. Light winds. Minimum temperature -4 °C.

Tuesday:

Rather cloudy with snow showers or longer spells of snow at times in the far west and Kent, these giving accumulations over hills. Very cold with a severe night frost. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Updated: 1840 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

Forecast for New Forest National Park for Tuesday

Cloudy with outbreaks of snow, or sleet low down, during the day. Accumulations possible on higher ground. Remaining very cold.

Updated: 1549 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

Forecast for South Downs National Park for Tuesday

Cloudy with outbreaks of snow, or sleet low down, during the day. Accumulations possible on higher ground. Remaining very cold.

Updated: 1549 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Snow showers or longer spells of snow will give further accumulations, risk of a more significant disruption event on Friday. Continuing very cold with severe frosts and occasionally strong winds.

REALLY annoying Kaddie's take on BBC - I saw that - GGrrrr! I think we will get snow - we should do! It should all be monumental with all of the older and more experienced NW members commenting on shovels needed, etc....?????

Edited January 4, 2010 by snowfish

[dubmuffin]

LBC are predicting snow for London tomorrow morning - where do they get that from?

[kold weather]

So not only is it too far West, we have a mild sector aswell. Only in the SE!! You have to laugh really.

Kold. If you was to stick you neck on the line. Would you say the NAE has the ppn too far west?

The development of the low is what makes it more marginal...however yes I'm pretty confident the 12z suite is too far west, I'd expect probably a 50 miles shift further east come the real thing, however the mai focus will regardless be in the western portion of that region...

Man Iwish I was in Chichester right now, thats going to be fairly close to the bullseye.

[Southender]

C4 are behind with the models I think.

[snowfish]

Yes just put our rubbish out and it is fffreezing

We will get snow Tuesday evening then all the way to sunday on and off im going for a max this week of -12 i think i might get it!

WICKED!

[Ruislipredbee]

Can someone please explain to me, a novice, how you can get rain when the temp is 1 degree and snow at 6 degrees ??

Also, what happened to the Armageddon prediction for Friday .... like I have said before on here, there seems to be a pattern of a big build up followed by an even bigger let down

the tv forcasts are about 8 hours behind the latest models it wont be a let down unless between 2 and 20cm is a let down for you!