East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Jan_Bromley]

If the ECM is right tonight/tomorrow could be a taster of things to come!

Have to say the uncertainity with regards to tonight/tomorrow is fasinating. The questions that need answered is where will this band of heavy snow develop? how far NE will it move before retreating S? You then have to throw in the complication of a band of snow moving into Norfolk, Cambs from the N.

A very long night ahead of us tonight which I may stay up for. Having said this my attempt at getting up at 4am this morning was a disaster!

This does remind me of Jan 87. My daughter was 6 weeks old and ill. the doctor had to walk 2 miles in 18 inches of snow to come and see her. bless him. Major disruption ahead methinks

Jan

[Southender]

Dry for most of our region at 6pm

But by midnight, that area over the South coast, heads back NE

Edited January 5, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[TEITS]

Have to say i've been looking at the 06Z NAE precip accumalation upto +48hrs. I have come to the conclusion that these charts are utter crap. For example it suggests Manchester will see a total precip accumlation of 6mm uotp +48hrs. Well looking at the radar they have had this amount already!

I feel today is one of these days where you might aswell chuck the models in the bin. Im sticking with the radar/Sat.

[winterfreak]

Yea,drags in relatively warm 850s,only for a short while though,its the fuel for it and it mixes out quite quickly

Hi John , how are you? Hope for a bit of sledging soon eh?!

[Jan_Bromley]

I'm a bit miffed though as to where these bitter temps are TEITS? Some saying the coldest winter for a generation but still mildish here at the mo in Tonbridge. I appreciate that IMBY may not be where the most snow, lowest temps are etc but for a generational cold spell i want to know where it is????? 1991 it aint here!

Hi WF

I think temps will plummet once the front coming down from the north has moved through. It's holding up temps in the far se corner

Jan

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Dorset and Wiltshire really on target to get a pasting!

[TEITS]

I'm a bit miffed though as to where these bitter temps are TEITS? Some saying the coldest winter for a generation but still mildish here at the mo in Tonbridge. I appreciate that IMBY may not be where the most snow, lowest temps are etc but for a generational cold spell i want to know where it is????? 1991 it aint here!

Despite being freezing here the very cold temps haven't really arrived yet and remain to our NE. However based on the models we're going to see upper temps drop to around -12C over the next few days.

If the ECM verifies come this weekend you will struggle to get above freezing with large amounts of powder snow which will drift in the strong winds.

[winterfreak]

Despite being freezing here the very cold temps haven't really arrived yet and remain to our NE. However based on the models we're going to see upper temps drop to around -12C over the next few days.

If the ECM verifies come this weekend you will struggle to get above freezing with large amounts of powder snow which will drift in the strong winds.

I'll take that thanks TEITS! I can't wait!!

[Tn9]

I'm a bit miffed though as to where these bitter temps are TEITS? Some saying the coldest winter for a generation but still mildish here at the mo in Tonbridge. I appreciate that IMBY may not be where the most snow, lowest temps are etc but for a generational cold spell i want to know where it is????? 1991 it aint here!

Maybe not a 91,but that wind aint gonna go around you

[Optimus Prime]

Well had a look at the regional BBC cloud/precip animation for later. Wish I hadn't I'm more confused then what I was.

I think the chopping and changing will continue until 3ish this afternoon when it starts to trawl near to our region. Some places will get a foot while other just a rather thick covering. More especially the west at first but spreading to the east as well later on.

[winterfreak]

Maybe not a 91,but that wind aint gonna go around you

Ha ha!!

As a newbie i don't understand the charts as well as the more experienced of you. Judging by those isobars on your chart, is that going to be a weak, moderate or reasonably strong Easterly?

[Tom D]

Whilst the GFS and NAE are now better for our region, my advice would be to watch the radar, as this band is very messy and broken, with some really heavy bursts and some lighter areas.

The next 48 hours could be very snowy for some areas, then down the road rather disappointing... but that's generally always the situation with snow events in this country.

[Jan_Bromley]

Well had a look at the regional BBC cloud/precip animation for later. Wish I hadn't I'm more confused then what I was.

I think the chopping and changing will continue until 3ish this afternoon when it starts to trawl near to our region. Some places will get a foot while other just a rather thick covering. More especially the west at first but spreading to the east as well later on.

Thanks OP. Sounding good

[Hammer]

I'm a bit miffed though as to where these bitter temps are TEITS? Some saying the coldest winter for a generation but still mildish here at the mo in Tonbridge. I appreciate that IMBY may not be where the most snow, lowest temps are etc but for a generational cold spell i want to know where it is????? 1991 it aint here!

Mild? What temperature are you recording at the moment near you?

Isn't it a bit lazy with the wealth of information on this site, to ask someone else to tell you. Go search.

In summary, it's cold, getting colder and very likely snowier.

[Coast]

but that's generally always the situation with snow events in this country.

Assuming of course, that this is going to be like the 'general' snow of recent years...... :o

[Tn9]

Hi John , how are you? Hope for a bit of sledging soon eh?!

Im always up for sledging mate,happy new year to you,exciting times ahead ......maybe :o

[Hammer]

Whilst the GFS and NAE are now better for our region, my advice would be to watch the radar, as this band is very messy and broken, with some really heavy bursts and some lighter areas.

The next 48 hours could be very snowy for some areas, then down the road rather disappointing... but that's generally always the situation with snow events in this country.

I'll be more than dissapointed if Ware gets hammered whilst I don't here in Sawbo. :o

It will of course be your fault if this happens.

[DAVID SNOW]

Ha ha!!

As a newbie i don't understand the charts as well as the more experienced of you. Judging by those isobars on your chart, is that going to be a weak, moderate or reasonably strong Easterly?

That is a propper lazy wind... will not go round you..Just goes straight through you :o

[winterfreak]

Mild? What temperature are you recording at the moment near you?

Isn't it a bit lazy with the wealth of information on this site, to ask someone else to tell you. Go search.

In summary, it's cold, getting colder and very likely snowier.

oooohhhh! saucer of milk over to you....:o

Unfortunately our local weather staion website isn't currently on update mode at the moment.

Here

So i'm afraid i don't know but even just going outside it isn't cold, not like the 'winters of old' we once had. Jesus...

[GarethK]

From those charts above it looks like Norfolk will get hardly anything. However, it been lightly snowing for the past hour and a half and about a cm on the frozen ground, this will regardless be chaos! :o

[ribster]

Been snowing all morning here, not heavy but sure and steady and settling all the time.....

[TEITS]

Well had a look at the regional BBC cloud/precip animation for later. Wish I hadn't I'm more confused then what I was.

I think the chopping and changing will continue until 3ish this afternoon when it starts to trawl near to our region. Some places will get a foot while other just a rather thick covering. More especially the west at first but spreading to the east as well later on.

I don't want anyone blaming me if what im about to say goes wrong!

However my interpretation of what may happen today slightly differs to the forecasts. For starters I see your region OP getting a pasting later with this band of heavy snow moving NE into London and then affecting Herts. I would put the N limit of this heavy snow probably around S Cambs therefore just missing me. At the same time during the night we see a band of snow move S into Norfolk, Cambs. What then happens is this band of snow pulls S including the band thats already over S Cambs. This band of snow will affect much of the SE during tomorow giving large falls.

Remember when it comes to nowcasting you can forget about previous GFS outputs. You have to go with the latest i.e 06Z because it has the most recent data.

[janetmh71]

Temperature slowly rising currently -0.4c from a low of -4.3c last night.

Snow just stopped after being snowing lightly for about 2 hours . . have about 2cm on the ground.

Janet

[thegreat316]

laura tobin on bbc 24 saying they may issue an extreme weaher warning for the hampshire region, upto a foot of snow. would be first extreme warning in the whole country this winter

wow!

Edited January 5, 2010 by thegreat316

[NorthantsSnow]

Still an uncertain picture for Northamptonshire on the western side of the East Anglia/eastern side of the Midlands. Some models have us missing out by a few miles, others like the GFS have us right in the thick of it. Interesting to read the local forecast from Pitsford Hall:

GENERAL SITUATION ACROSS THE UK

Low pressure has developed over the North Sea and this will drive frontal systems southwards across the UK. However, with a predominantly Arctic airflow across the UK, these systems will deliver spells of heavy snow across many areas.

FORECAST FOR NORTHAMPTONSHIRE

So the very cold weather continues across Northamptonshire today. We are seeing some light snow showers across the county this morning and these will continue through the morning and into the afternoon giving a slight accumulation, more especially over higher ground. As we work into this evening and overnight there will be a tendency for the snow to become heavier and more prolonged with the potential for some travel disruption. Temperatures today will peak at around 1C with the wind, mostly light and from the south. However, with low pressure deepening over southern England this evening, we are likely to see the wind picking up from the south-east and this could produce some drifting of lying snow. Lows overnight will fall to -2C.

OUTLOOK

So there is the potential for some travel disruption tomorrow morning. There is likely to be several cms of lying snow and fresh snow will fall throughout the morning and into the afternoon. With a moderate breeze, backing easterly, we are also likely to see a fair amount of drifting and a significant wind chill. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing and with the wind chill will feel several degrees below. The snow will clear south-eastwards by evening and a hard frost will follow overnight with lows falling to -5C. The wind will continue to back becoming north-easterly, gentle to moderate.

A really exciting forecast. Can only hope it's correct. It would be ultra painful to miss out by a few miles.