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East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

Jayces

By Jayces
in Spring Weather Discussion

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jackie Newbie

jackie

Posted
  • Location: Cliffe, Rochester
  • Location: Cliffe, Rochester
Posted

Very thick slippery covering of frost/ice proper crunchy school run this morning with the kids, still had frost on the ground from yesterday.

Very confusing watchng the difference in the forcasts from just yesterday ! to be honest ive not a clue what to expect here in N Kent .... can someone with some knowledge say if N Kent is in line for some snow at some point...I was kind of expecting some this Thur/Fri but again very hard to pick info from threads....

thx

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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted (edited)

Does anyone think the showers in the channel will become more extensive once the low starts to develop and winds back more ssw :whistling: or cyclonic?

Edited by TN9
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Jan_Bromley Enthusiast

Jan_Bromley

Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
Posted

My thoughts for the far South and East (East Sussex/Kent) ...

Best chances are from midnight, tonight, to about 6am. Here's the GFS' Vertical Velocity charts up through the atmosphere for that time period:

post-5986-12626809117825_thumb.gifpost-5986-12626808966125_thumb.gifpost-5986-12626809041925_thumb.gif

Vertical Velocity is the combination of vorticity and temperature movement. If it's a negative number clouds will form, the more negative the more cloud will form, and the more cloud forming, the more precipitation happens.

Other processes are modelled in an OK way with the convection index (for the same time period):

post-5986-12626810802625_thumb.gif

So, where these charts highlight (ie West Kent, and East Sussex) are the most likely places to see snow. However, we are talking about 30/40 miles, here, on a global model that is relying on the accurate position of a small low pressure system.

Everything could, and probably will, change. All the potential is there ... nowcasting this evening is the key for our area - although we should have the luxury of the 6z output, and potentially, the 12z output too.

Thanks for that villageplank. What a nightmare trying to forecast. There's plenty of energy in those charts which "could" suggest a wider spread. Just have to wait and see.

Jan

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

As VP Says there is still uncertainty towards the coast even for the showers that may clip Sussex and Kent later due to the fact the Surface Low that will develop in the base of the Upper Trough will always have Milder air to it's South and East Side, so temps could be as high as 4c near the coast but closer to 1c about 10-15 miles in from the coast.

Can see quite clearly the front stalling around Manchester and the wrap around starting to Pivot which will bring an area of Heavy Snow from Birmingham down to Dorset this evening,and as this area is North and West of the Low then all Snow here for sure, the Low is expected to then drift down towards Alderney for around 00z (Wed)

Paul S

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted

That first band is now starting to fizzle out over East Mids and Cambs.

Second band looks great !!!

Phone call from family member in Bolton 25cm of snow wallbash.gifwallbash.gifwallbash.gif

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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted

On the latest Sat24 loop, am I not seeing a LP centre forming around Liverpool? :whistling:

Looks like it,you can see it on the met radar too?

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snowfish Newbie

snowfish

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
Posted

Just seen Carol's forecast two mins ago and the snow does look like spreading further East later this pm. She also showed the snow just sitting over the SE tomorrow.

Interestingly though, Met O do not have a warning for Kent. Would have thought we should have by now? What's happened to the warning for saturday? We are still on for that deluge as well ? :whistling:

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Discombobulation Man Newbie

Discombobulation Man

Posted
  • Location: East London, Leytonstone
  • Location: East London, Leytonstone
Posted

On the latest Sat24 loop, am I not seeing a LP centre forming around Liverpool? :)

I dont know if it's going to be the centre of the low that comes out of all this but it's certainly a key protaganist for us in the south east if I'm reading it right. That little cluster that you're referring to off the coast of Liverpool acts as some sort of linch pin which is going to hold everything up before it gets shunted SW. . . the further east that 'linch pin' cluster gets between now and 14ish then the better our chances in London IMO.

If it just ambles due south then that does bot bode well for us in London and SE (imo) at least not for this particular event.

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snowfish Newbie

snowfish

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
Posted

Very thick slippery covering of frost/ice proper crunchy school run this morning with the kids, still had frost on the ground from yesterday.

Very confusing watchng the difference in the forcasts from just yesterday ! to be honest ive not a clue what to expect here in N Kent .... can someone with some knowledge say if N Kent is in line for some snow at some point...I was kind of expecting some this Thur/Fri but again very hard to pick info from threads....

thx

Jackie, as you can see from my location, I would hazzard a guess and say that by 5pm we could see some flurry activity overnight could be interesting and certainly by rush hour tomorrow a very heavy band of snow could be falling from the skies for north kent followed by heavy snow showers....that's my take on it anyway, hope this helps. !! :)

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Blizzard_of_Oz Apprentice

Blizzard_of_Oz

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Interestingly though, Met O do not have a warning for Kent. Would have thought we should have by now? What's happened to the warning for saturday? We are still on for that deluge as well ? :)

Good morning, Sky weather just said up to a foot of Snow in some of the home Counties by morning, yes it has moved to the East as a few thought it would on here.:)

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snowfish Newbie

snowfish

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
Posted

Good morning, Sky weather just said up to a foot of Snow in some of the home Counties by morning, yes it has moved to the East as a few thought it would on here.:)

Thanks Blizzard of Oz!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Nobody has mentioned the showers from the north sea that might be due later this week , any updates on that?

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Wayneywoo Newbie

Wayneywoo

Posted
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

I have to say that if this is centre around Liverpool is a major player, then it looks to drag everything on a SW course and although it pains me to say it, looks like the SE is going to miss all that's around today.

Keep your eyes on this little feature. It's course needs to be S/SE for us in the SE to see anything today.

Edited by Wayneywoo
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Jan_Bromley Enthusiast

Jan_Bromley

Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
Posted

Good morning, Sky weather just said up to a foot of Snow in some of the home Counties by morning, yes it has moved to the East as a few thought it would on here.:good:

Sadly I think those home counties will be to the west of london

Jan

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Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted

Good morning, Sky weather just said up to a foot of Snow in some of the home Counties by morning, yes it has moved to the East as a few thought it would on here.:good:

You do realise the home counties accounts for quite a large number of locations, did Sky suggest northern home counties or southern or all? Or were they as vague as they normally are, hoping that the viewer did not notice.

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gornaldo Newbie

gornaldo

Posted
  • Location: Clapham, Wandsworth, South West London
  • Location: Clapham, Wandsworth, South West London
Posted

This is going to be a classic case of radar watching to be honest. I'll be watching with baited breath from 6pm onwards..

Plenty to look forward to, tonight into the early hours could be cracking.

Let's see what happens.

I'm gonna be very optimistic about this one.

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Tn9 Seasoned

Tn9

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted

Sadly I think those home counties will be to the west of london

Jan

We will know by tomorrow morning,i find hindsight much easier than forecasting :good:

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

Just seen Peter Gibbs on N24. Looks like W London may get a bit tonight. The further E you are forget it, maybe a dusting. Tomorrow late morning/early afternoon looks like we may get lucky though, as a trough moves in off the N.Sea.

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icy toes Explorer

icy toes

Posted
  • Location: Grafham Water, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Grafham Water, Cambridgeshire
Posted

Had light snow since 8am, but it's still covered everything. The first band seems to be fizzling out over north Cambs and East Midlands. It'll be interesting if the band following makes it here because there's some heavy stuff in there.

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted (edited)

Hang on tight the 06Z is moving the risk of heavy snow further E. More in a min.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs183.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs213.gif

Nightmare to forecast!

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Jan_Bromley Enthusiast

Jan_Bromley

Posted
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
  • Location: Bromley, Kent
Posted

Just seen Peter Gibbs on N24. Looks like W London may get a bit tonight. The further E you are forget it, maybe a dusting. Tomorrow late morning/early afternoon looks like we may get lucky though, as a trough moves in off the N.Sea.

Do you know, it's just typical. You wait weeks for trofs/lows, then three come along all at once

Jan

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Just seen Peter Gibbs on N24. Looks like W London may get a bit tonight. The further E you are forget it, maybe a dusting. Tomorrow late morning/early afternoon looks like we may get lucky though, as a trough moves in off the N.Sea.

Would not pin your hopes on that trough tomorrow LS - Looks a weak affair at the moment with Light Snow and probably only get a dusting from that, thats if it is even where it is tomorrow, could be further South and Kent and Suusex get the heavier parts of tomorrows Snow. Still not convinced yet of much in the way of penetrating showers for Thurs and Friday either as the flow is very slack and winds are more North of East than East of North.

Paul S

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