East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Lol No worries Mate!

BTW The front seems to be much further South than what they expected it to be atm

Also some unexpected precip about o move into the Peterborough Area by the looks of the radar!

Paul S

Yes, that's been mentioned on one of the other threads too. So everything is certainly not set in stone

yet. I can't make up my mind whether to watch the radar for a bit longer or not

[kold weather]

Also worth watching in case the front that is attached to the main low can swing up far enough north, the front could well stall over Kent as the low continues to deepen but moves away. This was hinted at on several of the models today including the 12z/18z NAE and also the 18z NMM model NW runs...best chances probably in the SW portion of the zone.

Main risk once again on the southern side of the region but its one to watch, probably rain nearer the coast but something to keep an eye on...as is the second front, models increasingly suggestive of 3-5cms coming from this BUT once again much depends on timings, and once again favours more southern location as the front is progged to strengthen as it comes further south.

Still enough uncertainty to still need real close watching.

ps, tomorrow I'll be paying very close attention to the wind reports across the country, this will give us a good clue as to where the LP forms, we've seen these pull big surprises before.

Edited January 5, 2010 by kold weather

[danm]

Also worth watching in case the front that is attached to the main low can swing up far enough north, the front could well stall over Kent as the low continues to deepen but moves away. This was hinted at on several of the models today including the 12z/18z NAE and also the 18z NMM model NW runs...best chances probably in the SW portion of the zone.

Main risk once again on the southern side of the region but its one to watch, probably rain nearer the coast but something to keep an eye on...as is the second front, models increasingly suggestive of 3-5cms coming from this BUT once again much depends on timings, and once again favours more southern location as the front is progged to strengthen as it comes further south.

Still enough uncertainty to still need real close watching.

Definitely going to be a busy day of radar, tv forecast and model watching tomorrow! A few shifts and we could be in line.

Its amazing though, that we're the one area progged not to receive anything significant tomorrow, but our thread is the most busy and longest. Just shows how many people inhabit this overcrowded corner of the country.

[Icebox]

Also worth watching in case the front that is attached to the main low can swing up far enough north, the front could well stall over Kent as the low continues to deepen but moves away. This was hinted at on several of the models today including the 12z/18z NAE and also the 18z NMM model NW runs...best chances probably in the SW portion of the zone.

Main risk once again on the southern side of the region but its one to watch, probably rain nearer the coast but something to keep an eye on...as is the second front, models increasingly suggestive of 3-5cms coming from this BUT once again much depends on timings, and once again favours more southern location as the front is progged to strengthen as it comes further south.

Still enough uncertainty to still need real close watching.

ps, tomorrow I'll be paying very close attention to the wind reports across the country, this will give us a good clue as to where the LP forms, we've seen these pull big surprises before.

It looks to me that the front is moving down a bit quicker than anticipated......... Do you think that could lead to some other outcomes?

PS Excuse my ignorance but I am a newbie!

[patrickshere]

Definitely going to be a busy day of radar, tv forecast and model watching tomorrow! A few shifts and we could be in line.

Its amazing though, that we're the one area progged not to receive anything significant tomorrow, but our thread is the most busy and longest. Just shows how many people inhabit this overcrowded corner of the country.

For this event it should be split into three areas really.. As it's going to be very varied as to who gets snow etc. I'd say something like one for Home Counties, one for London/rest of south east and one for EA or something.

[kold weather]

May make a slight difference, I've not really had a good look at that side of things however if we can get that front over the SE+EA then the wraparound that develops will have to move through our location again...

The honest answer though is it depends a lot on other variables as to what it really means.

0z's should firm up on the details a little more I'd imagine.

[dallas]

It looks to me that the front is moving down a bit quicker than anticipated......... Do you think that could lead to some other outcomes?

PS Excuse my ignorance but I am a newbie!

To me it looks liked it has sped up slightly, sort of front we could do well out of as it has some heavy bursts in it

[Guest]

This has got me on tenterhooks, first she says Yes, then she says No, then she says Yes, then she says no again, moving her affections to the west.

[Sno' problem]

Well Newcastle is getting a pasting right now:

http://www.tynebridgewebcam.com/north.htm

Anyone any idea on why none of the bbc webcams seem to be working anymore?

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Mmm watching the radar and spreading down quite fast, imo it looks marginly a bit more Easterly direction now, you could be right you know Kold I think you are, oh and if you want to watch the snow now here try this.

http://www.tynebridg...m.com/north.htm

sorry above poster already posted Toon link.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Blizzard_of_Oz

[Sno' problem]

HAHA, how random is that? Great minds etc...

Edited January 5, 2010 by Sno' problem

[danm]

Well Newcastle is getting a pasting right now:

http://www.tynebridgewebcam.com/north.htm

Anyone any idea on why none of the bbc webcams seem to be working anymore?

Not only Newcastle, check out Manchester: http://www.gmpte.com/corporate/webcam.cfm

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

HAHA, how random is that? Great minds etc...

Aye I'm originally from up there, South Shields like lol, bookmarked camera. lol

[cj114]

Mmm watching the radar and spreading down quite fast, imo it looks marginly a bit more Easterly direction now, you could be right you know Kold I think you are, oh and if you want to watch the snow now here try this.

http://www.tynebridg...m.com/north.htm

sorry above poster already posted Toon link.

Yes radar is still a little Easterly. Maybe the wind may change? It does seem to be petering out as it comes South though.

[kold weather]

First tentative signs of the low developing looknig at the wind field further north. At the moment still a very long way but starting to see some wind shifts that would suggest a disturbance is in the first stage of developing along the front.

I'm probably going to go to bed soon but will try to get up fairly early to see how the set-up is developing.

[Sno' problem]

Good call there KW, sleep well everyone, and let's hope things begin to sway our way over the next few hours. Night, night all!

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

First tentative signs of the low developing looknig at the wind field further north. At the moment still a very long way but starting to see some wind shifts that would suggest a disturbance is in the first stage of developing along the front.

I'm probably going to go to bed soon but will try to get up fairly early to see how the set-up is developing.

Well the main band certainly looks like it's heading East to me, wait and see, wait and see Kold you could be right about the Easterly afterall.

[kold weather]

Looking at the pressure field it seems to agree with my thoughts that there is some development starting to occur along the front near the NW, pretty much exactly where the models progged from the 18z suite, still too early to know whether it'll track the same however if that is the case it does lend some confidence on the 18z solution.

[Ocean Transit]

Down to -6.4 deg. C now. Coldest since 2005. Stansted reporting -7!

Something has caught my eye but awaiting the 00Z NAE run before I get excited.

[kold weather]

Yep OT severe cold I'd have thought in some places, my area is actually mild compared to some down at -3C but it feels very cold out there has to be said...certainly these mins are packing a punch in this cold spell...

Also would you be able to expand those thoughts, I'm quite interested!

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

They are starting to get nervous on the Central thread, pulling towards more of the East Midlands now, could be, could be.

[Squigglytay]

Aye I'm originally from up there, South Shields like lol, bookmarked camera. lol

Hey Blizzard

Im originally from Sunderland. How do u think our southern homes will fare? The family up home have had a bit in the last few week.

[Ocean Transit]

Yep OT severe cold I'd have thought in some places, my area is actually mild compared to some down at -3C but it feels very cold out there has to be said...certainly these mins are packing a punch in this cold spell...

Also would you be able to expand those thoughts, I'm quite interested!

You mentioned Kent in a earlier post, something which I noticed earlier (especially the Dutch model) stalls the front over Kent. If the HIRLAM is to be believed Kent (and Essex into East London) have sustained snow all through Tuesday night and even into Wednesday afternoon.

OT, lol I've been mis-quoted in today's Express

(I said rivers not seas would freeze)

Edited January 5, 2010 by Ocean Transit

[danm]

I hope this is a trend in the right direction. But from what i remember on the bbc forecasts, the snow moved in a south easterly direction, before almost stalling over the midlands, and then pivoting slightly and heading straight south.

But i am really hoping that it moves east!

[kold weather]

Ah yes very interesting OT, its something I've been suggesting could happen, the 18z NMM that Net-weather runs also shows a rather similar idea with the front coming up from the south and stalling, at the same time the front to the north comes down...could yet see a local bullseye zone with whoever gets the first front for longest and the second front as well...as you say for now the areas you mention have the greatest risk.

Well worth watching, thats why I've been suggesting 5-7cms looks quite possible for some, threat biggest further south of course...

ps, the 18z NAE isn't that far away from that either really

Edited January 5, 2010 by kold weather