East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Jan_Bromley]

Good morning everyone. Very hard, harsh frost this morning. I am as unsure as everybody else today concerning the snow. The safest bet I think is just to look out of the window

Jan

[liltbrockie]

Good morning everyone. Very hard, harsh frost this morning. I am as unsure as everybody else today concerning the snow. The safest bet I think is just to look out of the window

Jan

The radar helps quite a bit I find.

[JJB McCabe-deluxe edition]

Just drove through Wisbech, Cambs about 30 minutes ago and was coming down fairly hard and settling readily. Now arrived at March and it's snowing lightly here.

Regards

JJB McCabe

Edited January 5, 2010 by JJB McCabe-deluxe edition

[Neilsouth]

Carol on news 24 showing that SE/Home Counties/London most at risk tonight & tomorrow afternoon and forecasted up to 25cm

[maidstone weather]

Carol on news 24 showing that SE/Home Counties/London most at risk tonight & tomorrow afternoon and forecasted up to 25cm

did the graphics suggest that or did she herself say that?

Can't see how London and Surrey get an early warning when Kent doesn't?

[Barometric]

I for one am delighted that Central Southern England are due the bulk of the snow. I still have lying snow here in Iwade and know that we may not get much in the next 18 hours but then again we were never forecast to get any until wednesday, so all this is a massive bonus.

My interest lies in tomorrow and then for the next 7 days, when I think the SE and especially Kent will see plenty of its own snow. Micheal Fish has already indicated that from tomorrow into the weekend, Kent is going to see snow every day; I can live with that!!!

All incredibly fascinating and although I said I would bank the ECM run from 2 days ago I have decided to give that to charity and bank the 00z instead. An absolute snow fest if that was to come off.

I am loving this cold spell already and with another possible 10 days to go, it can only get better and better.

James

[TEITS]

Fantastic start to the day with a light covering in Peterborough. Im relieved because last night I was worried I wouldn't see a flake. Im hoping the heavier snow to my N makes it here later.

Definately a day to look at the radar rather than the models!

[pureasthedriven]

did the graphics suggest that or did she herself say that?

Can't see how London and Surrey get an early warning when Kent doesn't?

If it's approaching from the NW though...? Regardless, Kent is quite clearly in for a proper pasting, especially once this system runs through, I would suggest.

[Tn9]

Sorry to be an imby, but am I looking good for snow in West London (Ealing)?

Not with that big fire in Barnes

[Neilsouth]

did the graphics suggest that or did she herself say that?

Can't see how London and Surrey get an early warning when Kent doesn't?

She said that , however the forecast before that didn't say anything of the sort.... I'd hate to have these forecasters in the states " Your going to have tornados today beware , no your not... Maybe further west , could be further north ".

[Timmytour]

Harsh frost this morning..currently -3, but surprisingly easy to scrape off the car windows..

I was hopeful of a bit of snow overnight from some of the earlier forecasts yesterday but this hasn't materialised. Now I've been away since just after Christmas but kept an eye on what's been happening, or supposed to happen and now I'm back it seems to me a pattern is setting in.

Snow is forecast for the area but moves north, south, west or east of it! Would it be right to say there has not been one post Christmas snowflake here?

I saw a forecast this morning in which we seemed to be like a dry fulcrum around which the snow was going to hit. Actually I'm pleased this is a forecast because I think it improves our chances on current form! But I'm wary that if any one forecast of snow is going to be right (and I know how difficult a science it is), then this will be the one

[southbank]

the radar may be giving the impression its moving more se but if im understanding the situation correctly the front moving down south from the north is associated with a low out in the north sea , this is generally in a SE direction , what is happening is that at the same time a low develops in the channel , its this low that the main area of snow people arent too sure exactly where it will fall , as this low in the channel develops its competing with the low in the north sea for energy and causes the front moving south to decay , probably round NW london region ...... i think this is right , feel free to shoot the messenger , but really as more better informed people will tell u its all about the radar now as this can go either further east/west

[JJB McCabe-deluxe edition]

Fantastic start to the day with a light covering in Peterborough. Im relieved because last night I was worried I wouldn't see a flake. Im hoping the heavier snow to my N makes it here later.

Definately a day to look at the radar rather than the models!

It's snowing steadily in March now, nothing spectacular but everywhere has a good covering now. Radar seems to suggest we could see a large band of heavier snow later this afternoon.

I hear it's chaos in Merseyside down to Manchester, it's all gridlocked not much fun if you're on the motorway in that.

[sco77harris]

netweather at one point is forecasting torrential snow for me

[Coast]

More ideas about where the snow will be most prevalent:

Snow Forecast Issued: 2010-01-04 20:25:00

Valid: 2010-01-04 23:00:00 - 2010-01-05 22:59:00

Regions Affected

All of the UK.

Synopsis

A complex situation arises for Tuesday. A front coming down from the North will give many a spell of moderate snow and a light covering for most. As this reaches the Midlands it looks like it will become very slow moving with the potential for some fairly significant accumulations. Behind all this will be plenty of snow showers with coastal areas most affected giving places further spells of moderate or heavy snow and local accumulations and again perhaps significant.

Coastal areas will probably see a mix ofrain sleet and maybe wet snow.

Icy roads will be a problem for many so leave extra time for journeys. Transport disruption is likely particularly where snow hits rush hour peaks and where the snow is slow moving.

Later on in the evening is the potential for a significant event but alot of uncertainity remains. Much of Central Southern England and into the Midlands could see some prolonged heavy snowfall giving large accumulations with 5-15cm likely over a wide area. Upto 30cm is possible over the hills. However much could still change so stay tuned for local forecasts on this event

[Neilsouth]

Sleet... Not here no , heavy snow on the ground in some areas and temps still -2

[maidstone weather]

Well if the 0z NAE is anything to go by there will be what look like a squall/band of intense showers moving northwards across the SE during the late evening, then throughout the day on Wednesday there will be persistent light snow for much of the SE. Not too bad, but not the 25cm further west. But as Tamara says, be careful what you wish for.

[Rich44]

Well that chart is already wrong as it's snowing nicely here now already, sleet my a***

[VillagePlank]

My thoughts for the far South and East (East Sussex/Kent) ...

Best chances are from midnight, tonight, to about 6am. Here's the GFS' Vertical Velocity charts up through the atmosphere for that time period:

Vertical Velocity is the combination of vorticity and temperature movement. If it's a negative number clouds will form, the more negative the more cloud will form, and the more cloud forming, the more precipitation happens.

Other processes are modelled in an OK way with the convection index (for the same time period):

So, where these charts highlight (ie West Kent, and East Sussex) are the most likely places to see snow. However, we are talking about 30/40 miles, here, on a global model that is relying on the accurate position of a small low pressure system.

Everything could, and probably will, change. All the potential is there ... nowcasting this evening is the key for our area - although we should have the luxury of the 6z output, and potentially, the 12z output too.

Edited January 5, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Neilsouth]

Well that chart is already wrong as it's snowing nicely here now already, sleet my a***

Probably based on last nights runs... Hence the complete inaccuracy

- Thanks VillagePlank

[yamkin]

Biggin Hill -3.3c Carol Kirkwood on BBC said snow tomorrow over the South/South East will be heavy and slow to clear 5 day forecast for Biggin Hill heavy snow Wednesday then snow rest of the week and not getting above freezing all week -

Just seen Carol's forecast two mins ago and the snow does look like spreading further East later this pm. She also showed the snow just sitting over the SE tomorrow.

[snowfish]

Morning all ! , rough night sleep again... oh well lets have some snow

Morning Neil

Why rough night's sleep? My sleep has been capputt since I have had swine flu - second week (hopefully recovering slowly) !!! Not remembered much about Christmas or New Year at all!!!

Anyway, hoping the front comes eastwards so that by 5pm snow is falling here! Lucky for me, I don't have to go back to work until next week now with illness, so will be able to catch some of the action as it happens (one SMALL bonus in the scheme of things!)

Looking at the forecast with Carol on BBC, she seems pretty confident about our deluge for tomorrow morning onwards.....That band looked thick and I reckon could last a good few hours solid....Your thoughts?

[TEITS]

It's snowing steadily in March now, nothing spectacular but everywhere has a good covering now. Radar seems to suggest we could see a large band of heavier snow later this afternoon.

I hear it's chaos in Merseyside down to Manchester, it's all gridlocked not much fun if you're on the motorway in that.

Yes later this afternoon into this evening looks good for us.

Have to say the models are also fantastic especially the ECM. The risk of heavy snow continues into the weekend. If anything today is going to be a dusting in comparison.

[maidstone weather]

-5.2C at the moment!

[VillagePlank]

Well that chart is already wrong as it's snowing nicely here now already, sleet my a***

There is a risk of sleet, would you believe! Here's the charts I would use in determining whether stuff will fall as rain/sleet/snow:

As you can see there is, relatively speaking, a mild bit stuck in this low pressure system. Associated with that are marginal parameters. There is also a chance that GFS has modelled this as slightly too cold (according to the ensembles)

So the risk is there, but I wouldn't call rain for this one, and I'd edge over for snow. For higher ground, snow is virtually a certainty, but at sea-level especially near coasts ..... not sure.

Edited January 5, 2010 by VillagePlank