East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Shunter]

You wouldn't believe all this weather thats being banded around...here in Gravesend its sunny, calm and around +2c. Slow thaw atm.

[Neilsouth]

Looks much the same... but now we have Met warnings for Essex and Kent from Weds to Sat

Wouldn't discount tonight yet!

Cheers OT!

[Paul Sherman]

Latest from Paul Blight (Meteogroup) PJB On Ukww

The Warmer nose is squeezed out tonight and all precip overland is largely of Snow by 03Z, with further accumulations in places as a very cold ENE airflow moves SW. The 06Z NAE and GFS are both much slower to clear the precip away to the South tomorrow and infact produce another 5-10cm across CS England during the day finally clearing the snow away after dark tomorrow evening.

However by this time a new low is moving towards East Anglia and Eastern England with heavy Snow moving back into these areas for Thursday.

He has done some great and accurate Synoptic Forecasts over the last few weeks, Interestingly no mention of tomorrow Snow from the trough coming from the North Sea until Thursday, De Ja Vue again

Some places could be extremely unlucky in the South East, places like Eastern Kent, Coastal Suffolk, Coastal Essex, Norfolk and not see much until later this week and then we rely on hit and miss showers.

But for Western areas of our region it is bonanza time and it just goes to show what a Channel Low can do, Incidentally watch out for Thundersnow Reports along the South Dorset Coast tonight as well

Paul S

[yamkin]

Any updates for ea,se end of week?

The fun and games for us in the SE really starts later tonight into Wednesday and onwards. The bitter winds will push snow showers into the E/SE as the week progresses.

MetO have issued a revised severe weather warning to the Croydon Borough for heavy snow later tonight to extend into Wednesday. They seem to be very concerned about the rest of the week into the weekend.

[Bright Boy]

Thank you Brighton & Hove is now included in the Orange zone for later...it's spreading east...

[Tom D]

She said a foot and a half in many places, I couldnt believe my ears. Even if we don't get that here in Herts. it will be amazing to see that tomorrow in England when was the last time of that amount 1978?

I just hope that people now are taking the warnings seriously and are very careful. Folk on this forum were aware days ago about this but the B.B.C. have been slow to issue warnings imo. I want to but hope no deaths occur out of this extreme weather.

Indeed, slow doesn't quite cut it. They were saying it would be light patchy rain just yesterday morning.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

That's great Coast as there is always a risk of rain on the seafront.

Yes, in my experience from living close to the sea there is often an issue with marginality when the wind is onshore, which it is likely to be through today and indeed much of tonight. It is possible that dewpoints may go the wrong side of zero close to the coast. They are creeping upwards close to that now. Further inland this isn't an issue.

The channel still has SST's around 9 or 10C

Edited January 5, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

There could be more than a foot and a half in places

So places not that many places , sorry I need a new hearing aid, like I said couldnt believe my ears.

[Coast]

Incidentally watch out for Thundersnow Reports along the South Dorset Coast tonight as well

[Ocean Transit]

Just posted on weather-online:

Simon: Extreme weather warnings now for whole of Wales and southern half of England. I remain unconvinced about the positioning of the heaviest snow over the far south of England. Could be anywhere from Aberystwyth-Birmingham-Essex south that could get above 20cm, but 10 to 20cm most likely.

Essex. Nah

[kold weather]

Paul I'd watch the second front very closely, the GFS and the NAE both agree on giving our region about 5cms from it, which whilst isn't amazing compared to what happens out west is not bad really compared to what could have happened...

I think Paul B hasn't mentioned it simply because there are more important issues at hand, the front that gives 5-10cms to CS also will have to give us some as well as it passes through since its coming from the north. VERY good model agreement on that feature now, just some uncertainty about events before it...

I'd make a sneaky punt and say south Kent gets a lot more snow then some are expecting...

[Nick.F]

Still a chilly -0.7c here

[kold weather]

Also just worth a little notice of whats happen synoptically right now because I';m seeing something that could be a little interesting...the pressure charts show a region of relative low pressure over the West Midlands down to 1001mbs. Whilst it could just be an eddy I think I'm seeing first subtle signs of another center forming on the lown pressure system sliding SW. I'm going to watch it for another hour but if it does form it will swing the frontal system further east.

These complex lows can become very tricky to forecast, also watching out for another low to form on the front which will become the dominant one, BUT how far east the front goes before this happens will determine who gets nailed.

ps, also interesting Paul Blight goes for heavy snow on Thursday when the models aren't even hinting at that, however he has a heck of a lot of experience in these set-ups sometimes its best to go with what usually happens, I for one agree with the idea he puts forward, notice the showers coming into Scotland on the back of the low.

Edited January 5, 2010 by kold weather

[Snowydays]

Paul I'd watch the second front very closely, the GFS and the NAE both agree on giving our region about 5cms from it, which whilst isn't amazing compared to what happens out west is not bad really compared to what could have happened...

I think Paul B hasn't mentioned it simply because there are more important issues at hand, the front that gives 5-10cms to CS also will have to give us some as well as it passes through since its coming from the north. VERY good model agreement on that feature now, just some uncertainty about events before it...

I'd make a sneaky punt and say south Kent gets a lot more snow then some are expecting...

Hi kola your like the god of this forum .will tunbridge wells in south west Kent get snow?

[Steve Edgefield]

Yes, in my experience from living close to the sea there is often an issue with marginality when the wind is onshore, which it is likely to be through today and indeed much of tonight. It is possible that dewpoints may go the wrong side of zero close to the coast. They are creeping upwards close to that now. Further inland this isn't an issue.

The channel still has SST's around 9 or 10C

Interestingly, there are a few reports of temperatures and dewpoints rising in a few places through the Midlands at the moment. A very complex situation still developing.

[Neilsouth]

Paul I'd watch the second front very closely, the GFS and the NAE both agree on giving our region about 5cms from it, which whilst isn't amazing compared to what happens out west is not bad really compared to what could have happened...

How far east is this second front going to stretch ? , i'm just wondering if i'll be on the edge

p.s A member of the family has plans to go to suffolk over the weekend , shall i tell her not to go?

[ChartViewer]

Temps 1 Dewpoint -4

Crisp cold and bright.

Wouldnt want any precip here until after dark as when temps fall will be perfect for any snow falling.

Doubt London will see the amounts being seen further West and North but expect some covering by m orning into tomorrow.

Well done to all those regions seeing heavy snow and stay safe everyone..

Edited January 5, 2010 by ChartViewer

[John Snow]

I think I am too far east for the juicy stuff but my mother is meant to be flying from Heathrow tomorrow morning, got a feeling Heathrow is going to be closed all of tomorrow as they are right in the zone

[Essex Boy]

Lovely bright blue skies here in Chelmsford, Essex. Hoping its going to snow overnight though. Watching the rest of the week and weekend unfold with interest. Total accumulations by Sunday could be mammoth if the rampable models come off....

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Paul I'd watch the second front very closely, the GFS and the NAE both agree on giving our region about 5cms from it, which whilst isn't amazing compared to what happens out west is not bad really compared to what could have happened...

I think Paul B hasn't mentioned it simply because there are more important issues at hand, the front that gives 5-10cms to CS also will have to give us some as well as it passes through since its coming from the north. VERY good model agreement on that feature now, just some uncertainty about events before it...

I'd make a sneaky punt and say south Kent gets a lot more snow then some are expecting...

Well, well where have all the prozac members gone lol? What a difference a few hours makes then Kold, we were watching the radar during the early hours which was very interesting to say the least. Just want to congratulate you on your spot on forecast, more likely to move East you said, but as we know this could all change in the net 4-5 hours but now it looks more certain that even the Far Eastern area of our region will get some snow, well done.

[Steve Edgefield]

Can quite easily see the development of the low by following the Met Office radar. Will be interesting to watch how it all progresses.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Steve Edgefield

[runboy]

Well in Norwich mother nature has been giving us a very light dusting of snow, really fine stuff that hasn't stuck everywhere. Blue skies in patches now and now more snow dust. Is that it for today and do we have to wait until later this week or is the PPN just too far west for us?

[john w]

Make no mistake

I would expect the orange areas in the S and SE to be upgraded to red by midnight. Yellow areas next to orange areas to become red.

If Yamkin receives similar bespoke meto updates to us then the sentiment in his thinking will probably be the same.

Interesting, I think places just slightly further East than the main hot spot will see much more than they are hoping for. I expect Reading will be really a town to watch as will winchester, and basingstoke.

[Shunter]

Still a chilly -0.7c here

Quite strange, the temp has actually dropped from 2c to 0.5c as the clear slot passes through North Kent.

[Paul Sherman]

Darren

Just a quick question, where is the front for tomorrow situated atm, cant for the life of me see where this is or will it become apparant this evening/overnight ?

Neil I would say she should not have a problem getting to Suffolk, remember on Sunday a lot of places had yellow advisories for Snow only to either get a dusting or about 1cm, these are just advisories at this time and are not set in stone for any particular areas, remember this is an ever changing situation and events further down the line could be affected.

Paul S