Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 15

[Snowplough33]

Some showers from this chart tonight???

If only charts gave us showers!

Edited January 6, 2010 by Snowplough33

[su rui ke]

Theres no doubt about that SRK.

Right on top of us , probably cold and dry in the immediate short-term. We'd keep the snow cover and depending on how much cloud is wrapped up in it, then we could test some low tempeartures in the interior.

If it sat to the east/north-east of us, then probably bringing a moderated north-sea influence. Depends on the uppers and the cold at the source (Norway, Denmark, Low-countries ?) - but most likely we could end up with a chilly rather than outright cold fetch to the east coast. Immediate east-coast could get some mushing up of existing snow but still with the majority of us holding onto most of it.

Unless we get a direct cold-fetch/good cold uppers though, we're likely to see any High in our immediate proximity begin to mix-in some atlantic/north-sea air over time, so thats got to be a moderating influence I'd think.

Thanks, BT. So there's likely to be a trend towards less cold wherever the high is?

[Zenarcher]

There's loads of snow here the best its been in 2 years

[Sunny Leith]

I put in so many qualifiers there SRK that - in almost metoffice style - I'd say the actual answer lies somewhere betweeen "possibly" and "probably".

Personally I'd rather we had the high sat on top of us for another week to prolong things and see if we can land the -20c somewhere or not. We could take a chance with the ECM easterlies with the high a bit further out to our north/east and fetching in some air from the north-sea ... as many will testify though from the last 3 weeks, that air is far from frigid for us and might mush things up a bit from Wick to Berwick.

As usual the weather will do what it wants anyway so que sera sera. :lol:

Thanks, BT. So there's likely to be a trend towards less cold wherever the high is?

Edited January 6, 2010 by by-tor

[Snooz]

BBC24 just had a borders reporter on..

"Borders one of the worst areas affected" 18" last Night!!

to be fair the reporter, speaking from inside his house as he's very definitley snowed in, was very calm and the pictures told it all, the newscaster said, "surely you're used to this" in Scotland, reporter replied very calmly that the 18" that fell on top of the already existing 2 weeks worth meant it was an unusual situation too..

When you see pictures of diggers and tractors have to physically take the snow elsewhere it should bring it home to them.. shouldn't it?

Anyway crisp clear morning here -2.9c DP -4

that little low rolling off Norway, seems to be having a big impact on the overall formation of the high - and stopped the Easterly? That is the same little low that Monds called pathetic the other day, it's nae doing too badly so far for the borders anyway

There's loads of snow here the best its been in 2 years :lol:

WOOT! Enjoy :lol:<br>

Edited January 6, 2010 by Snooz

[NorthernRab]

Thanks, BT. So there's likely to be a trend towards less cold wherever the high is?

Regardless of the upper air temperatures it would be very, very cold. There is very little wind on these charts, uppers of +5'C still give us day time max temperatures of around 0'C so there would be very little in the way of melt.

[snowy owl]

Yep definitely a look towards a moderating influence and perhaps as you say by-tor a mushing up near the coasts and likely sleet rather than snow.

GFS seems to be differing again from ECM/UKMO again.

Looks like some cold frosty nights to come though!

[Guest]

I put in so many qualifiers there SRK that - in almost metoffice style - I'd say the actual answer lies somewhere betweeen "possibly" and "probably".

Personally I'd rather we had the high sat on top of us for another week to prolong things and see if we can land the -20c somewhere or not. We could take a chance with the ECM easterlies with the high a bit further out to our north/east and fetching in some air from the north-sea ... as many will testify though from the last 3 weeks, that air is far from frigid for us and might mush things up a bit from Wick to Berwick.

As usual the weather will do what it wants anyway so que sera sera.

It's a shame that what has given the east coast (and borders in particular) so much snow in the past two weeks is also going to take the snow away again. I think the orientation of the high will cause some warmer temps on the east coast, but away from that slack breeze temps could well slump away.

Edited January 6, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[NorthernRab]

I really don't think it will be much of a moderating influence guys. This is high pressure in January, with existing snow cover and freezing fog would be likely to form...

[Sunny Leith]

Agree. As long as any fetch is slack/light winds - and not aggressively and continuously pulling that modifying 7c air from the middle of the north-sea - then surface cold will probably prevail anyway away from the very immediate coastal fringes that are right beside the sea - "at the shore" I Guess you could say.

Put it this way, I'm at the top of Leith Walk and don't see any immediate prospect of us losing snow cover up to and over the weekend, the ground just isn't going to give it up. More sledging to come on Calton Hill yet for my 8 year old I think

Regardless of the upper air temperatures it would be very, very cold. There is very little wind on these charts, uppers of +5'C still give us day time max temperatures of around 0'C so there would be very little in the way of melt.

Edited January 6, 2010 by by-tor

[Guest]

I really don't think it will be much of a moderating influence guys. This is high pressure in January, with existing snow cover and freezing fog would be likely to form...

I hear what you're saying Rab, I just wasn't sure how far inland the influence would be :) Temperature inversion anyone??

I reckon the "interior" as by-tor called it () will see some very cold temps.

10/10 to the Beeb's emergency snow show!!

Reporter from Inverness says we're all "scunnered" with it

Edited January 6, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Sunny Leith]

Its still a bit if, but and maybe CMD. Whatever happens I think we'll have to live with our local cold pool/cold surface temps for a week or so and hope that its not nibbled away too badly from one direction or another.

Not being a pessimist, just that the prospects for arrival of "new" cold air don't look too obvious in the immediate short-term ????

It's a shame that what has given the east coast (and borders in particular) so much snow in the past two weeks is also going to take the snow away again. I think the orientation of the high will cause some warmer temps on the east coast, but away from that slack breeze temps could well slump away.

[Guest]

Its still a bit if, but and maybe CMD. Whatever happens I think we'll have to live with our local cold pool/cold surface temps for a week or so and hope that its not nibbled away too badly from one direction or another.

Not being a pessimist, just that the prospects for arrival of "new" cold air don't look too obvious in the immediate short-term ????

It doesn't seem obvious, it all depends on where the HP ends up. As long as it is close by we don't need "new" cold air. So something of a hiatus for the next 4-5 days. Time to go back to watching models I think...

[su rui ke]

It doesn't seem obvious, it all depends on where the HP ends up. As long as it is close by we don't need "new" cold air. So something of a hiatus for the next 4-5 days. Time to go back to watching models I think...

Was just watching the BBC and they are still going for the possibility of -20 somewhere this weekend so it looks like they are favouring the 'local cold is enough' option for now.

[LadyPakal]

Nice group of snow cloud heading for Aberdeen at the moment - with a bit of luck we'll run through it lengthways...

[Snooz]

It doesn't seem obvious, it all depends on where the HP ends up. As long as it is close by we don't need "new" cold air. So something of a hiatus for the next 4-5 days. Time to go back to watching models I think...

Agreed, it's fascinating though Never seen the model thread so quiet either!

The News24 programme is quite balanced really, not too dramatic..

That's the Northerly band of showers just reaching us now, temps rose quickly to -0.4 DP -2 just in advance of it, to my West it's been quite dark for a while and now it's flaking slightly

[Highland Snow]

Morin all

A lot of disappointed people this morin in Perth, no snow made its way here . They all want a snow day in my office. Talk of snow tonight and Possibly Thursday, I'm less convinced .

Hi Ally. If it hadn't been for that 9 inch dump on the 26/27th we would be apopleptic! After nine Winters living in Perth, what we have now is more than all of them combined.

Perth is sheltered from the North by the Cairngorms/Grampians, is too far inland from the East Coast and marginal from the South and West so we should be glad we have anything I guess.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Highland Snow

[JoeShmoe]

Whens the next forecast snow? Tonight?

[Snooz]

Nice group of snow cloud heading for Aberdeen at the moment - with a bit of luck we'll run through it lengthways...

fingers xxx'd LadyP, it seems to be moving quite slowly or stalling getting ready for a more NE flow, in which case Aberdeen could finally get lucky.

DH made it into work today (whether he'll get home remains to be seen!) and says it like a different world as soon as you get over the Tyrebagger:pardon:

[Methuselah]

Dry, sunny and -6C the now...Heavy falls of snow expected North Scotty later... :o :D

That does, of course, beg the question: north of where exactly?? :huh:

[GraemeB]

MetO giving another warning for tomorrow .. for Central, Tay and Fife of Heavy Snow..

[su rui ke]

One thing about this cold spell is that it's great for learning how the models etc. translate into real weather. I still don't know much but it's a lot more than I did a few weeks ago!

Perhaps we should have a big party when it's all over ...

[Guest]

One thing about this cold spell is that it's great for learning how the models etc. translate into real weather. I still don't know much but it's a lot more than I did a few weeks ago!

Perhaps we should have a big party when it's all over ...

A wake for the snow and ice!! We could all bring a snowball from our gardens and have a sacrificial melting to the snow gods

[shuggee]

Whens the next forecast snow? Tonight?

The NMM suggests this evening for Edinburgh Joe. But who can really say?!

[Snowplough33]

A wake for the snow and ice!! We could all bring a snowball from our gardens and have a sacrificial melting to the snow gods

I may have to borrow some, as dont want to breach my limited supply!!