East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Snow storm]

Massive Flakes here! Better snow event than dec 09/ feb 09 already for me!

[Neilsouth]

Neil, to be fair it was forecast. It was on the graphics even last night, a separate band moving north. I posted this morning about a squall like feature moving north this evening, into the Thames Estuary by midnight.

Actually they said RAIN , want me to post the picture from kaddy? last night or this morning

[kold weather]

Strengthening cell heading towards S.London over the next 90 mins or so, my location could well be far enough west to get that cell as well, spreading NNE...so there is still a little bit of eastward motion yet before the front pivots and the front gains more of a northerly motion...

[desperately seeking]

Woaa!

AT this rate ALL of kent will see snow

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/united_kingdom.html

Didn't expect that

That is a very good view.. You get a great idea of the rotation and it looks like the bulk of the heavy stuff may hit considerably further east (Gtr London-wise) than was originally thought...

Here's hoping

DS

[snoweyowl]

snowing in hertford...yayyyy

[Neilsouth]

Put your postcode in and voila

Nice one fella!!

[nick sussex]

The SE has snow chances for at least the next five days, if you think it's cold now wait for that easterly flow to come in!

[SussexmarkyMark]

Yeh but the flow is coming up from a cold france , whereas those areas have the thames estuary in the way

I don't think that's the reason mate, the air is circulating around a depression in the Channel, not a true southerly all the way from France !

We now have heavy graupel in amongst the softer snow.

[meltz!]

snowing quite heavily now in Leighton Buzzard, south beds almost a centimetre in 20 mins or so and settling very well!!

[totalhysteria]

Still snowing out my window atm

Yup, my bad for not looking hard enough (dark garden). Nice coating of snow now.

Current stats are 0.4°c

Dew point of -0.6°c

[Upgrade]

Woaa!

AT this rate ALL of kent will see snow

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/united_kingdom.html

Didn't expect that

The extent of snow is larger than expected i think.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

At last it's started Snowing, didn't think it would make it, only light Snow but Snow tonight makes good for tomorrows Dump and during the night.

[Helvellyn]

blackwater estuary streamer?? where the hell did this snow come from..!

[stewfox]

Winter forecast

........

So a cold end to December with snow north of the M4. A CET of around 3.3c

This brings us on to January

For early Janurary around the 5th I can see heavy snow from the midlands south with up to a foot in places

........

Glad to see my winter forcast made last summer continues to be spot on

Edited January 5, 2010 by stewfox

[saint]

Could the front/low please move slighlty more Eastwards, thanks!

Edited January 5, 2010 by saint

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm coming to the view when looking at the PPN projections and what the radar is showing that we won't do so badly tonight in East Herts and Western Essex from the snow band moving North. My wild guess is that the factor that it will get as far north as the hills a bit north of here , say around Safron Walden, when we will then start to see it all coming back with the band from the north/east tomorrow.

All in all, comparing the radar and the 12z and then 18z basic PPN projections, they have not been too far off so far.

Kold - many thanks for hosting this one so well.

[BucksSnow]

very heavy snow in high wycombe have 3cms in matter of an hour

[Snow Cat]

Snizzle in the wind here, something I suppose. Think it's more of a calm before the storm though.

[Snowy Bob]

Light Snow In Folkestone mixed with Hail...

[maidstone weather]

Actually they said RAIN , want me to post the picture from kaddy? last night or this morning

lol - any picture you like

I never expected it to be rain here, always expected snow. -2.5C is dewpoint here currently.

[jojobut]

We now have heavy graupel in amongst the softer snow.

[Roo]

Could the front/low please move slighlty more Eastwards, thanks! :cold:

What? Not enough east for those in the west? Shocking.....

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I'm coming to the view when looking at the PPN projections and what the radar is showing that we won't do so badly tonight in East Herts and Western Essex from the snow band moving North. My wild guess is that the factor that it will get as far north as the hills a bit north of here , say around Safron Walden, when we will then start to see it all coming back with the band from the north/east tomorrow.

All in all, comparing the radar and the 12z and then 18z basic PPN projections, they have not been too far off so far.

Kold - many thanks for hosting this one so well.

Hi Tim lets hope so, looks good for later.

[SMU]

Evening All-

Im going to try & get this at the top of the page-

This is about as up to date forecast you get & is valid inline with the models until 10pm-

& try to make sense of the gazillion posts on here-

A VERY COMPLEX Pattern here in the SE corner which has been developing in the models for a day or 2-

Basically the jet stream has been flowing down from Scandi in a SW direction- Hence that system moving down the North sea-

However as the jet exits SW through western scotland its developed a loop that runs in an easterly direction across the Channel-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/euro5.00hr.png

the lift that this generates coupled with the convegnce has developed a small shortwave that is funneling the PPN North East-

again,most models have picked this up, with varying degrees of momentum North & East-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010518_0512.gif

Notice the isolines curved NE- the around the top back west- this means the PPN will move NEwards out of Portsmouth, reach the Western posrtions of London & the home Counties & then start to curve west & LOSE momentum NE-

Key here - for the NORTHERN extent of the PPN will look to stall out around 10pm- so If it hasnt reached you ( north side by then) then you may well be out of luck-

THen look at the T 9 & 12 charts-

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010521_0512.gif

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/05/basis12/ukuk/pslv/10010600_0512.gif

10- Midnight is the MAX Northern & Eastern Extent of the PPN, also note a more curved signature of the isolines,in terms of its PPN sheild means you will get Extension East away from the Main core - However this will INFLECT more & more- so even though it may appear that its marching further & further North, at some point that will stall -

Therefor, the jackpot zone is the shires west of london - 30-40 cm top depths- LUCKY LUCKY!!!!

There will also be a line of snow ESE of that heavy core spreading East across london towards Kent-

The Eastern boundry looks to Be say Ashford- the northern extent>>>???? Thames----- maybe South Essex-

This zone away from the core 2-5cm although where it stalls out may get up to 10cm-

Those that miss out then wait for the Easterly-

Jackpot zones-- Surrey, Berks, Hamps, London West, NW london- SE Bucks, W Herts

Then the Eastern zone-

West Sussex , west side of East sussex south London, SE london , NW kent ,west Kent- SE essex- although Please be aware this is subject to change- poss south or North....( coastals could be rain & sleet)

S

Edited January 5, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Kent Snow]

Woaa!

AT this rate ALL of kent will see snow

http://www.meteogrou...ed_kingdom.html

Didn't expect that

Fingers crossed. Temperature still -2c here in Canterbury.