East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

I have to admit the GFS looks ok but it has a bais which is very relevant here and thats it really badly overdoes the coverage of light precip and I've got a feeling this is probably the case here.

Another issue that will become increasingly obvious in the far east is we are importing less cold air slowly but surely and looking at the profiles those temps/dew points look very marginal for any settling snow for the far east come Sunday afternoon...of course we could have a decent amount by then anyway but as we saw today the coasts can get very marginal very quickly...

So probably light snow Saturday afternoon, maybe a bit heavier for the eveing hours and overnight, temps become very marginal on coasts and during the daytime snow turns sleety by the coasts, inland probably staying as snow and probably still settling bar maybe the peak afternoon hours. After that and who knows...the wind profiles look decent for dragging showers in quite inland and colder air tucking back in again with snow back for the coasts.

That would be my punt, looks like a rather dragged out event so some areas inland could well get rather lucky...esp if any streamers do set-up...

[SMU]

I think people are underestimating the convective potential from the ENE flow from about t42 out to the event Sun-

Theres some 48 hours worth of flow with embedded troughs to pep things up-

realistically with this type of flow & circa -12c uppers we are talking 30cms for the favoured spots & 10-15 widely across the region-

If you top that off with the sunday event & tomorrow + whats on the ground now- somewhere will get close to 50cm......

incidentally the 18z goes for another 30 hours of direct easterly after the sunday event- in -8c upper air

Steve

Edited January 6, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Mr.Plow]

Just went through the precipitation charts from the 18z and Norfolk/East Anglia and then the South East is predicted a right pasting. Thursday from about 6 in the am throught to early hours Saturday for Norfolk then starting again on Sunday!

I think back to the forecast I think it was Ian Mcascill - of the 1987? North Easterly.

I wonder what the North Sea wil brew up for us?

Anyone want to hazard a guess?

Or even better show links to thise other precipitation charts - NAE?

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah! Oh how good would that be! Just reliving it by reading http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/26580-january-1987-how-was-it-for-you/

God

I forgot I started that thread nearly 4 years ago

[kold weather]

The dewpoints and the 2m temps look abit dodgy for coastal regions of Essex, Suffolk, E Norfolk and much of Kent.

Temps of 2/3C!!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs874.gif

The GFS could be over doing the effects of the N Sea.

Depends on exactly the how the precip ends up coming in...if its frontal in nature then its going to be another screw job for the coasts, if its convective then it'll be less of an issue.

Probably going to end up being very marginal here in SW Essex again as well, having a proper covering on the ground is going to help as will the fact Europe should be snow covered by then, all little things that will help.

[Downpour]

Oh is this how modern winters are meant to feel?

A thousand snowed-in up near Chesterfield

It's freezing cold outside but it it looks so nice

And it's okay because we're all sorted out for snow and ice

In the middle of the night

It feels so right

But then tomorrow morning

The Tube breaks down

Oh yeah the radio said the schools were closing down

After someone skidded over up in Camden Town

And the younger kids think someone's throwing rice

But that's okay because we're all sorted out for snow and ice

In the middle of the night

It feels so right

But then tomorrow morning

The train breaks down

What if this never breaks down?

[Great Plum]

No BUT crippling accummulations so well in excess of 25cms and drifting too.

BFTP

I assume Fred that this would be on top of the amount we already have... (which is a fair old bit!)

[twiglet98]

I'm off to bed now, going to be an interesting day at work tomorrow trying to drop a van load of posties off for their deliveries and then trying to drive round and do mine Have fun everyone

Hi all, great site and forum...

Post not collected from work this pm due to blizzard conditions in Stevenage early pm. Only 2cm or so lying here now, lanes icy over a thin layer of snow, clear and still outside.

All very pretty, not so good for doing livestock but the dog loves it! And it certainly beats mud.

[cat0511]

north east but blowing about in the blustery winds, thats off a weather station

thanks

[kold weather]

I think people are underestimating the convective potential from the ENE flow from about t42 out to the event Sun-

Theres some 48 hours worth of flow with embedded troughs to pep things up-

realistically with this type of flow & circa -12c uppers we are talking 30cms for the favoured spots & 10-15 widely across the region-

If you top that off with the sunday event & tomorrow + whats on the ground now- somewhere will get close to 50cm......

incidentally the 18z goes for another 30 hours of direct easterly after the sunday event- in -8c upper air

Steve

I quite agree actually Steve, I think if the flow is disturbed enough to create two troughs (Friday morning then Saturday) then there must clearly be a lot of instalbity...so constant showers IMO onto the usual places that do well in NE/ENE flows probably 10-15cms possibly as you say, 4-8cms a little further inland thanks to the troughs and a few rouge showers coming in.

[Ocean Transit]

Steve,

About Sunday... I'm still concerned about temps/dps. Today for example parts of Eastern Essex (even 10 miles inland and over 100m) temperatures rose to 2C at one point.

Looks good on the models but as kw has mentioned today, I still feel some will be disapointed in places . (sleet etc)

Edited January 6, 2010 by Ocean Transit

[TEITS]

I do agree with Steve that the potential from the convection is huge and im certainly underestimating it. However I do tend to be cautious until I literally see those huge clusters heading my way.

Ideally I don't want to see those silly blue speckles on the radar (Met O radar) give me huge yellow clusters.

[Icebox]

The dewpoints and the 2m temps look abit dodgy for coastal regions of Essex, Suffolk, E Norfolk and much of Kent.

Temps of 2/3C!!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs874.gif

The GFS could be over doing the effects of the N Sea.

Agreed it could turn out to be a very damp squib!

[simon65]

right ,one last try at another pic

Current data for Linslade

06 January 2010 22:15:01

Temperature (°C):

Current -4.6

Trend (per hour) -0.6

Average today -1.1

Wind chill -7.4

Humidex -8.1

Dew Point -6.4

Rel Humidity 87%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 11.4 NW

Average Speed 3.8 NNW

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.9

Total yesterday 0.0

Total this month 4.5

Total this year 4.5

Pressure (mb):

Current 1008.9

Trend (per hour) +0.4

Edited January 6, 2010 by simon65

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

any noticed those wintry showers are now coming more in land in Norfolk cant wait for when i look again at 5 !!! before i fight the elements to work,

[twiglet98]

Oh is this how modern winters are meant to feel?

A thousand snowed-in up near Chesterfield

It's freezing cold outside but it it looks so nice

And it's okay because we're all sorted out for snow and ice

In the middle of the night

It feels so right

But then tomorrow morning

The Tube breaks down

Oh yeah the radio said the schools were closing down

After someone skidded over up in Camden Town

And the younger kids think someone's throwing rice

But that's okay because we're all sorted out for snow and ice

In the middle of the night

It feels so right

But then tomorrow morning

The train breaks down

What if this never breaks down?

LOL!

[Snowy Bob]

Starting to snow lightly again in Folkestone.

Moving ahead towards Sunday, and a question to our experts.

Why would it be so marginal for snow down here on Sunday, when it has been so cold for the past few weeks, and so surely that would be the case for the sea as well.

[Paul Sherman]

I think people are underestimating the convective potential from the ENE flow from about t42 out to the event Sun-

Theres some 48 hours worth of flow with embedded troughs to pep things up-

realistically with this type of flow & circa -12c uppers we are talking 30cms for the favoured spots & 10-15 widely across the region-

If you top that off with the sunday event & tomorrow + whats on the ground now- somewhere will get close to 50cm......

incidentally the 18z goes for another 30 hours of direct easterly after the sunday event- in -8c upper air

Steve

Steve

I am certainly lookin forward to some Thundersnow as I posted about around 6 pages ago. I think it starts sooner than T42 Though, may get some Showers at T30 From around 3am Friday Morning by the looks of things all the way through to Saturday!

Paul S

[Tom D]

God

I forgot I started that thread nearly 4 years ago

I wasn't born then (1987) but my home county is Hertfordshire. I'd imagine by your account there was some pretty hefty snowfall here too. That is an amazing account and really seems to me to be a once in a hundred year event, maybe longer.

Temp has plumetted here, -6.1c at the moment but fairly steady. Might not be as cold as it could get as clouds might drift in with the snow showers forecast over Norfolk. Otherwise, if it stays clear, -10 is not out of the question. More realistically -8c might be reached here.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[jdp80]

Oh is this how modern winters are meant to feel?

A thousand snowed-in up near Chesterfield

It's freezing cold outside but it it looks so nice

And it's okay because we're all sorted out for snow and ice

Move over Jarvis!

[LynM]

I'm new to this.....and as I have no work tomorrow....just demolished a bottle of wine......hic.....thanks again for totally accurate predictions....I luv this site

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think people are underestimating the convective potential from the ENE flow from about t42 out to the event Sun-

Theres some 48 hours worth of flow with embedded troughs to pep things up-

realistically with this type of flow & circa -12c uppers we are talking 30cms for the favoured spots & 10-15 widely across the region-

If you top that off with the sunday event & tomorrow + whats on the ground now- somewhere will get close to 50cm......

incidentally the 18z goes for another 30 hours of direct easterly after the sunday event- in -8c upper air

Steve

Someone with a snow pack of 2cm doesn't believe you!

When you say "favoured spots", in a NE flow you should be specific, and say you meant Kent and Norfolk, Suffolk/Cambridgeshire.

South Essex will NOT get 10-15cm from a NEly. South Essex will get 0 cm - 3 cm, per strike, unless you happen to live in Leigh/Southend where you can catch a little of the Kent streamer.

[SMU]

Steve,

About Sunday... I'm still concerned about temps/dps. Today for example parts of Eastern Essex (even 10 miles inland and over 100m) temperatures rose to 2C at one point.

Looks good on the models but as kw has mentioned today, I still feel some will be disapointed in places . (sleet etc)

Yep it is a concern, it really depends on the lapse rates within the PPN band & how saturated the air is-

One thing to remember about today was the flow was from the south & SW until the system moved through......

thats what raised the dewpoints-

( favoured spots are suffolk, North & central Kent )-

S

Edited January 6, 2010 by Steve Murr

[Snow Queen one]

Steve thank you at last someone has mentioned that there is a central or Mid Kent. It is not mentioned enough and i never know where i am in marginal situations

[blackprince]

I'm new to this.....and as I have no work tomorrow....just demolished a bottle of wine......hic.....thanks again for totally accurate predictions....I luv this site

Hi LynM Welcome to the site,Ive been using Netweather for years and watching the forum for just as long and I would rather rely on the forecasts from this site than any other group of forecasters.

It has been a buzz reading whats predicted in the way of snow etc and I am sure you will get hooked to the forum,

:o