South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Wynn D Woo]

Here are some pictures from earlier today :-D

Snow looking splendid in the sunshine.

[/quote

Great images, the last one but for the lack of lifts could be a scene from a ski resort, what sort of depths were up there?

[dogs32]

anyone beat -6 at present in Glos

[westysweather]

hi all, been watching the forums since dec and finally decided to join up, also signed upto the netweather extra last week thats quite interesting although slightly adictive!!!! im one of those people who just love unusual events of any kind so i suppose my interest was bumped up over the last few weeks. i hope to build a good understanding of how things work so will be staying around, not here for just the snow events, so wont pester you all to see if its going to snow in exeter lol! any chance??? only kidding!

[lfcdude]

so how much snow can we expect on sunday?

[NickSomerset]

anyone beat -6 at present in Glos

-7.2 in Yeovilton. Gone up from -9.....:lol:

[Lynxus]

@dogs

-8.0 in abbeymead

and -8.9 in elmbridge

[Wynn D Woo]

anyone beat -6 at present in Glos

Ive got -8.6C at the moment and falling, looking on wunderground other stations in the near vacinity are between -7.9C and -9.3C

[Ian Fergusson]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

[Lynxus]

hi all, been watching the forums since dec and finally decided to join up, also signed upto the netweather extra last week thats quite interesting although slightly adictive!!!! im one of those people who just love unusual events of any kind so i suppose my interest was bumped up over the last few weeks. i hope to build a good understanding of how things work so will be staying around, not here for just the snow events, so wont pester you all to see if its going to snow in exeter lol! any chance??? only kidding!

Hi and welcome.

The SW thread is the friendly-ist thread on here

Currently, its hard to tell who will get what , So keep an eye out on friday evening / sat.

Also on another note.. While the forums are quite active now.. You should see the fun and games we have in the summer when the storms come out to play and the NW guys go off storm chasing in the USA.

They also took a Dog last time.

[Snowman15]

Yeah, of course we got it wrong on Tuesday night, too.

Await the amendments - the graphics are merely representing how the (last run of) UKMO global model suggests the worst through on Sunday and clearing overnight - albeit slowly - into Monday but very probably leaving a nasty legacy.

Still great uncertainty on disruptive impact, hence UKMO retaining advisory but keeping powder dry on early warning - for now. Prudent science, versus hyperbole.

Ok thanks for that - I think i will just sit back and wait and see what happens nearer the time!

[03jtrickey]

Great images, the last one but for the lack of lifts could be a scene from a ski resort, what sort of depths were up there?

Thanks, yes it was rather alpine up there in the snow! The depths were very variable. On average there was about 7 inches, but it ranged from 1 inch where the wind had blown the snow off the tops of surfaces to several feet where the snow had collected in gullies and/or drifted.

Thanks for the update Ian. Another one to watch!

[NickSomerset]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

Thanks Ian, so what we can all take from that is..... that its going to snow. Now that should keep everyone happy... Gonna try to bring in the words "vorticity advection" at work tomorrow....gonna wow everyone with that one..(better look it up first..:lol:)

Edited January 7, 2010 by NickSomerset

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Finally, the breeze has gone, and temperatures are dropping accordingly!

[dogs32]

cheers everyone for the temp's

Im the lowest..lol...the highest temp so far..

Thanks Ian for the update..

One quick Q. When you say 2cm-5cm widely in the South are you including us North of the county.

I say this as the BBC web site have the heavier band further North across the Midlands

N.Glos northward's

Cheers.

Edited January 7, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul T]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

Thanks for the info - I do worry about it falling as rain on the south coast, however, it would appear that the models keep on slightly decreasing the temps expected, as we near Sunday. Fingers crossed i guess if you love snow!

Also, you posted a 6 panel ppn image, spaced at 3hour intervals on Tues eve : 17:45ish - it was so accurate, it was fantastic.

Paul

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

Thanks for that Ian, I guess thats where David Braine was coming from.

Could be nasty as none of the snow from the other night has melted here yet, and with colder temps over the coming days (max -1.7C today and yesterday) I can't see much going and any new stuff will top up the frozen snow.

[Herefordweather]

-9.8oc up the road in Hereford dogs.

[dogs32]

-9.8oc up the road in Hereford dogs.

everyone as lower temp's than I

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Dropping again here, -6.5C now.

Long way to go from when I was in Finland... routinely -40C. (Up near Ruka)

[pyrotech]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

Hi Ian,

sorry to do this to you but can u answer following for us.

Will the warmth of Bristol channel effect convection for South Wales and North Sommerset?

Are the totals just for Sunday or for Monday too, as forecast i believe to be rather persistant.

What are the chances of this becoming a " signifigant" event for south west or wales, as mentioned last night and by sky tv today. Has that risk eroded or is it still there.

Thanks Ian for your valued input to the forum

[khodds]

Finally, the breeze has gone, and temperatures are dropping accordingly!

Oh good.. I'm still only reading -1.7c.... must be wrong. By the way, I like your cow picture - we used to have Highlands on my parents farm

[rowieboyz]

Temp is up and down like a yo yo at the moment, currently -5.5C

Fingers crossed for sunday/monday.

Anyone see the live report from up here by sky at 10 o clock?

Jase

[snowking]

Worth keeping an eye on the new NAE just coming out

The remnants of the stuff in the NE currently now shown to head towards the north of our region (albeit fairly sporadic affair likely by then)

Then looks as though the showers tomorrow from the east may make it across the east of the region - certainly wiltshire and dorset, possibly glos too

Obviously only little flurries, but I know how much even falling snow excites you all :lol:

SK

[snowlight robbery]

Ok - for those in the likes of S Dorset, Devon, etc - panic not. We await a very different set-up to that of Tuesday night.

The UKMO GM paints a widepread 2-5cm of snow on Sunday across pretty much all of southern England. Add, then, the fairly significant easterly and it's a notable spell of weather, to say the least. Less snow totals than Tuesday night / Wed morning? Probably. But a good deal colder feel and risk of blizzards? Yes.

Now, for you on those southern coastal districts, the comparatively warm sea temperature will tend to boost the convective element to the precipiation (snow) and based on our latest modelling, could provide up to 10cm locally as a consequence during Sunday.

An upper vortex, with the added 'oomph' of rather weak vorticity advection, will be fairly close to the southwest on Sunday and as a result, we're watching the developments closely as heavier snow could well affect the SW Peninsula during the day.

When we have some better regional prognosis, the warnings will duly follow, I am sure.

Many thanks yet again Ian for some late evening input,I like many others in the South West that have just recently joined up to the forum have learnt so much about weather charts and patterns from the weather Guru's on this site.Completely addicted and fascinated by all of this and like so many Dorset people on the extreme south coast are again desperately hoping that this time our moment has surely come.Keep up the excellent work everyone!, Martin

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Oh good.. I'm still only reading -1.7c.... must be wrong. By the way, I like your cow picture - we used to have Highlands on my parents farm

Does you car have a temp reading? Would be a good way to give a rough comparison.

Temp is up and down like a yo yo at the moment, currently -5.5C

Fingers crossed for sunday/monday.

Anyone see the live report from up here by sky at 10 o clock?

Jase

Hi mate,

saw it earlier when they got stuck up there :lol: