North West Cold Spell Discussion

[loobiloo]

Our temp has risen from 0.9 to 1.8 degrees since 7am. Some thawing going on, but also light snow for about the past hour and a half. The wind has picked up too. I keep watching the forecast and metcheck has consistantly predicted snow in our area starting 9am - so they got that about right - and continuing through to tomorrow. The BBC has been all over the place! Being a complete novice, it's hard to know who to believe most of the time :-/

[V for Very Cold]

not ventured out yet, but it appear not a flake fell last night. Oh and the forecast is for 3 days of continous light snow falls - really can't see that happening atm

Edited January 10, 2010 by V for Very Cold

[Liam J]

What are peoples thoughts for tonight then?

the temps are going to rise to far i feel for any snow, rain/sleet more likely but with snow over the hills (even shap is above freezing) temps seem like being alot higher than the forecasters anticipated.

getting further away from marginal as our temps rise, we wont see any more snow now until we get a return of cold air.

[Thunder Snow]

Why are temps rising so fast

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Why are temps rising so fast

It's to do with the warmth of the air.

[Liam J]

Why are temps rising so fast

im not so sure, i thought it was only going to be the east coast warm up with the onshore wind, but it seems its having an affect right accross here, keswick at 4c now im above freezing now at 0.5c.

met office will no doubt take away the warning when they notice the fast temp rise.

and yet in sw england its freezing or below and snowing, even in plymouth!!

Edited January 10, 2010 by james12

[Osbourne One-Nil]

There isn't a warning out for us anyway is there?

[Thunder Snow]

Awww what a shame

[Shaun L]

Although temps are rising dew points are still in our favour. As reported in a previous post the temp was 1.8c but it was still snowing.

Whatever we get , enjoy what we have had and it's only the 2nd week of January. Imo temps won't actually rise much above current levels now as there will be no direct sun, the increase that has occurred has been due to the increase in cloud cover.

Get out and enjoy while it's still there !!!

[Thunder Snow]

There isn't a warning out for us anyway is there?

I think its an advisery oon.

[Liam J]

this makes sense - http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/HOME/

[V for Very Cold]

so is this the beginning of the breakdown, or just a blip ?

[sconetone]

It's a balmy 1.2 here with a DP of -9.7 hmnnnn....

[dodge]

Saying 1c here. Quite suprised how much it seems to have warmed up. I thought the cold would have been much more stubborn to give way. If it keeps warming up like this, even I will probably see rain later. Hope not.

[chris78]

what a difference a night makes looks like this is all over

[k19]

what a difference a night makes looks like this is all over

Well- for now anyway, i dont think we will see much tonight into tomorrow but that doesnt mean this is the breakdown or anything'

[Backtrack]

Temps are NOT higher than forecasters said.

Check your BBC forecast, it's due to drop sharply before the band arrives.

+1.4c atm.

[Liam J]

who said the cold would not give up???!!! most are above freezing now, even 4c in places inland, and shap 1200ft elevation is above freezing...

obviously alot midler air has been picked up and is being blown accross here. i shouldm have learned from past experiences that getting excited about snow always ends in dissapointment!!!

temp 1c now DP -1c

[Thunder Snow]

The band is not likely to hit before sunset, so maybe temps will drop off. BBC forecast has now blue over our part at the moment.

[James M]

Uh oh...up to 0.1°C here now , ah well it was good while it lasted B)

Edited January 10, 2010 by James M

[sconetone]

To be honest even if this was the beginning of the end, I don't feel like complaining too much. Best spell of cold and snow for donkeys years - magnificent.

Mind you, more snow & cold would still be welcome

[Thunder Snow]

I still think there is the chance of snow tonight, when do metoffice update there warnings/watches.

[Backtrack]

Oh crap - The cloud is breaking up... Hello 5c?

[dodge]

Hey up! - there's a bit of anathrop on the way...batten down the hatches!

[Maz]

The models, from 5 days back, have always shown the SE flow from the continent raising temps to just above freezing. I'm surprised how quickly the wind has "mixed out" the cold surface layer, but that's what happened. The low dew points are typical of continental air and keep our hopes of snow going.

As to mild air pushing so far west, there is a slight fohn effect over the Pennines (hence the patches of blue sky in the lee of the hills being reported) The Kendal and Appleby reports show this most. As the front approaches, there will be more moisure in the air, dry air won't be descending our side of the Pennines, so the Fohn effect will decrease.

Still a rain shadow effect our side of the hills though which will decrease ppn. The latest NAE with mix of rain/sleet/snow and greatest intensity over Pennines looks about right. The heavier ppn is coming from what is over Holland/Denmark and southern N Sea at the moment, and is still picked up on the NAE. Ppn moving in later this afternoon and then sticking over us til midday tomorrow. Intensity slowly decreasing - which will give a tendancy for snow when more intense, turning to drizzly sleet/rain tomorrow. Higher elevations (say 200m+) all snow.