North West Cold Spell Discussion

[lukemc]

Hi,

Is this snow for later tomorrow frontal snowfall? with bands of snow moving up northwards/northwestwards? (as opposed to snow showers?) And also what sort of minimum temps could I expect tonight (South Liverpool)? Would -8C be possible?

Luke

[dodge]

The worlds greatest weather forecaster on BBC news just metioned proper blizzard conditions on the tops of the Pennines overnight Sunday into Monday.

[iand61]

The worlds greatest weather forecaster on BBC news just metioned proper blizzard conditions on the tops of the Pennines overnight Sunday into Monday.

is that the tops of all the Pennines including my vertically challenged 1440ft top or just the one's suitable to take up a career in Basketball.

either way bring it on!

Ian

[Snow_Fan_Man]

That precipitation to the East has been obliterated

[toon]

really hope we get a bit more snow up here in carlisle, always seem to miss the big events!! part from it being freeeeeezing -5oc at 17.00

[damianslaw]

well its looking better and better for snow in the NW, and im sure there will be nothing marginal about it, east or north east winds so no air will be blown in from the irish sea into western areas.

my temp has not got above freezing for the last 4 days max today was -2.0c, the cold is embedded and reluctant to go anywhere fast with many struggling to get above 0c and even then looking at 1 and 2c max in the upcoming week, and winds coming from a frozen continent my concern now is how far north that low will push its ppn as that could be one hell of a blizzard with very heavy snowfall and near gale/gale force winds recipe for MAJOR disruption, but it will most likely not get this far north.

before than we have sunday and mondays snow event which is looking interesting it all depends on the ppn we can get up here but its looking good for now, and a strong easterly wind, and if the met office upgraded there warning to red for heavy drifting snow i wouldnt be surprised....

hoping they wont backtrack on there current forecast for us.

Yes indeed the past 7 days have been very cold here in Cumbria, I have not recorded any temp in the positive since last saturday evening - probably have to go back to the period 23rd dec - 31st dec 95 as a equal comparable.

I have spent a wonderful day in the central lakes near St Johns in the Vale walking in the powder snow. Derwent water is nearly totally frozen over, about half of Thirlmere is frozen and Rydal and Grasmere are frozen solid. The fells looked stunning, it was a joy to be amongst it all, and with a blue sky and plenty of sunshine very clear sparling air. However, some snow flurries appeared by mid afternoon and on my return I was greeted by a short but rather surprising snow shower which has given about a cm dusting to all surfaces.

As for tomorrow, I'm expecting the snow to arrive into the South lakes by early evening, though more hillier terrain will see the heaviest stuff especially in the east I imagine, however, it is going to be a case of wait and see just how heavy it becomes as it bumps into the high ground, it looks like it is going to get heavier as it heads north and very much is lkely to hang around for Monday.

Beyond, I wouldn't be so certain that the precipitation from the SW will not make it to our neck of the woods, it looks like the front is going to advance far enough west to affect us, there is potential for a 5/6 fen 96 event here, which saw huge amounts of snow in the Lake District at all levels, watch this space, we could be on course for a very hefty dose of snow mid month as the front stalls against the block to the east - its a classic atlantic/continental match.

a very exciting week coming up, and one i feel that will be remembered and we will be saying down the line ''remember the winter of 2010''

enjoy folks....

:lol:

[Liam J]

temp falling fast now current -6.5c DP -8.7c

[damianslaw]

Just have to excuse me with my above posting I accidently inserted my text into another thread I meant to simply reply.

[Liam J]

february 1996 i got snowed in at keswick school and when i finally got home there was 6 ft snow drifts and a foot or so level was fantastic....

lets hope we can repeat it..... was that the same set up as this week? i was to young to take any notice!!!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

temp falling fast now current -6.5c DP -8.7c

Quite bizarre! I'm 40 miles inland, 600ft up, yet it's just -0.9C here!

I'm not whinging; I just find the difference very odd!

[snowdrifter]

february 1996 i got snowed in at keswick school and when i finally got home there was 6 ft snow drifts and a foot or so level was fantastic....

lets hope we can repeat it..... was that the same set up as this week? i was to young to take any notice!!!

Judge for yourself...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960205.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif

Def an east-west battle. I got 50cms of snow in Worcestershire.

[damianslaw]

Judge for yourself...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960205.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119960206.gif

Def an east-west battle. I got 50cms of snow in Worcestershire.

Comparing the synoptics being progged for Tuesday and Wednesday with those shown above for 5/6 Feb 96, the overall pattern is very similiar i.e. cold block to the east and mild atlantic air pushing in on a SE flow, however, there are some differences in the position of the low pressures and also the flow of air to the rear of them. In 1996 the low pressure system was much further NW, compared to the one being progged for next week which is further SE, however, 1996 had NW winds to its rear side, hence colder air embedded within it, compared to next weeks which has much milder tropical air within it with a mild SW flow to its rear.

In 1996 we saw a bit of a stalemate occur after the 6th with the high to the east trying to advect back westwards but with the atlantic continuing to throw fronts from the west. In the end I think from memory the colder air won out, but it took some time to come back properly. From recollection the country was battered by a very cold NE airstream on the 19th and the rest of Feb 1996 and indeed much of March 1996 saw extensive northern blocking and a very weak atlantic.

Unlike 1996 we have a more favourable synoptical evolution for allowing undercutting to occur, aiding those strong heights to the north east to advect west more quickly this time.

But I will remember 5/6 Feb 1996 for a long time, we also had the week off school with 18 inches by the middle of the 6th, the town was effectively cut off for 2 days, having seen anything like it since, but who knows..

Edited January 9, 2010 by damianslaw

[HotCuppa]

Quite bizarre! I'm 40 miles inland, 600ft up, yet it's just -0.9C here!

I'm not whinging; I just find the difference very odd!

sounds like inversion to me, but it could also be because of high level cloud

Just had a very very light snow shower nothing to write home about. Lots of cloud about..but just too light

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Won't be an inversion here as despite being 600ft up, everything around me is higher. In fact, I normally benefit from an inversion for that very reason and which is why I'm in a frost hollow. Now -0.7C!

[HotCuppa]

Won't be an inversion here as despite being 600ft up, everything around me is higher. In fact, I normally benefit from an inversion for that very reason and which is why I'm in a frost hollow. Now -0.7C!

Do you have any high cloud or anything around?

Temps rising here very slightly.

Temp -2.2C + 0.1C

Cond: Cloudy

Wind: N

DP -5.1C

Not expcting wind to veer to the east until later tomorrow afternoon.

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[snowdrifter]

Glad to see BBC forecast still showing decent snow Monday for the NW. I hope there's no downgrades - we live in such a 'will-it-won't-it' area with those blasted hills to cross.

[Liam J]

temp rising now due to cloud rolling by, now at -5c DP -7.5c had clear skies all day up until now

[HotCuppa]

Glad to see BBC forecast still showing decent snow Monday for the NW. I hope there's no downgrades - we live in such a 'will-it-won't-it' area with those blasted hills to cross. :unsure:

10 years from now, whats betting they will be bulldozed..land is at a premium and those hills are just in the way

[Liam J]

arrrrrgh temp now climbed to -4.5c!! i bet we all end up back to marginal for the snow make the most of what you got its gonna be washed away by rain...

[Backtrack]

-1.7c cloudyyyy

had a VERY VERY light snowshower.

[HotCuppa]

arrrrrgh temp now climbed to -4.5c!! i bet we all end up back to marginal for the snow make the most of what you got its gonna be washed away by rain...

cant see any snow being rain, whats your dp?

My temp is holding steady at -2.2C

and so is my dp

current conditions cloudy

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Liam J]

DP -6.6c my temp keeps rising due to cloud...

page 15 model thread, john holmes said 50 miles in from coast is most likely snow fall, and rain/sleet/wet snow elsewhere

Edited January 9, 2010 by james12

[snowdrifter]

DP -6.6c my temp keeps rising due to cloud...

page 15 model thread, john holmes said 50 miles in from coast is most likely snow fall, and rain/sleet/wet snow elsewhere

East orest coast though, or both?? Too much embedded cold I would have thought, but I'm not as in the know as JH. Hope he's wrong...

[Snow free zone]

East orest coast though, or both?? Too much embedded cold I would have thought, but I'm not as in the know as JH. Hope he's wrong...

Think he's referring to the sw and se coasts.

[dodge]

Rob on the BBC weather, hints at 15:00hrs tomorrow as being the first signs we'll catch of the snow coming up from the South East. He says it will be a long spell of mainly light snow, but the more noticeable aspect being the 'drifting'.

Edited January 9, 2010 by dodgeredee