North West Cold Spell Discussion

[Liam J]

Think he's referring to the sw and se coasts.

i think he does mean away from coasts with onshore wind....i hope!! and also just found this very interesting piece of info may work in our favour....

21Z Update -

Need to likely reduce Snow amounts except far SE, ECMWF 12Z has completely reduced Snow amounts in the South. Upstream Imagery indicates most will fall across Northern England and Later N Ireland as the precip leaving the Dutch Coast moves inland. Its fair to say models have struggled with this setup - though the GFS appears to have been largely correct with its uniterested Precip Signal in the south and more activity across the North.

[snowdrifter]

21Z Update -

Need to likely reduce Snow amounts except far SE, ECMWF 12Z has completely reduced Snow amounts in the South. Upstream Imagery indicates most will fall across Northern England and Later N Ireland as the precip leaving the Dutch Coast moves inland. Its fair to say models have struggled with this setup - though the GFS appears to have been largely correct with its uniterested Precip Signal in the south and more activity across the North.

Well posted James - this is encouraging.

[Liam J]

Well posted James - this is encouraging.

according to the gfs 18z my max temp all week is not going to get above 1c !!

lets hope so, we need more snow!!! met office have taken southern england off warning now for monday....

Edited January 9, 2010 by james12

[gearbox1001]

according to the gfs 18z my max temp all week is not going to get above 1c !!

lets hope so, we need more snow!!! met office have taken southern england off warning now for monday....

Ive seen various forecast's today and each one saying something completely different. The latest really giving us in our region another lovely sunny day with snow refined to the east of the region.

I think in my opinion they really don't have a clue for the next few days, because the in tenseness of the charts are also changing from heavy to light depending on your forecaster.

Have to wait and see, but nice to think the cold weather is lasting to Wednesday at least in our region.

Edited January 10, 2010 by gearbox1001

[Liam J]

clear skies atm temp -5.2c DP -7.8c barely any wind helping to maintain quite a low temp, i think this may the last crystal clear night for a few now...but if its snowing then i will be equally happy

looking at some inland temps in cumbria

keswick 0.4c

shap -1.6c

its colder towards the coast!! strange indeed, pherhaps cloud cover?? not looking good for snow if they keep rising imo

Edited January 10, 2010 by james12

[fluffytrollop]

Ive seen various forecast's today and each one saying something completely different. The latest really giving us in our region another lovely sunny day with snow refined to the east of the region.

I think in my opinion they really don't have a clue for the next few days, because the in tenseness of the charts are also changing from heavy to light depending on your forecaster.

Have to wait and see, but nice to think the cold weather is lasting to Wednesday at least in our region.

LOL that must be why the current obs for m21 say snow and the wispy cloud is not giving anything out!

Personally I think anyone brave enough to even try to forecast snow esp in these conditions gets my vote for having courage!

[HotCuppa]

Ive seen various forecast's today and each one saying something completely different. The latest really giving us in our region another lovely sunny day with snow refined to the east of the region.

I think in my opinion they really don't have a clue for the next few days, because the in tenseness of the charts are also changing from heavy to light depending on your forecaster.

Have to wait and see, but nice to think the cold weather is lasting to Wednesday at least in our region.

Id like to see either more snow or a ton of rain to wash this compacted ice crap of the pavements..its lethal..its also just as lethal on the roads.

clear skies atm temp -5.2c DP -7.8c barely any wind helping to maintain quite a low temp, i think this may the last crystal clear night for a few now...but if its snowing then i will be equally happy

looking at some inland temps in cumbria

keswick 0.4c

shap -1.6c

its colder towards the coast!! strange indeed, pherhaps cloud cover?? not looking good for snow if they keep rising imo

worry about the dp's not the temp

Well posted James - this is encouraging.

we knew this already through the NAE, its just a matter of how much and were is all.

Edited January 10, 2010 by HotCuppa

[stoke weather watch]

In Macclesfield its 0c at the Moment and Dew point is -5.

What is The Temp range for Snow and also the Dew point range to get Snow?

I though the Temps may be a bit lower then what they are as when day light comes then wont they get well above 0c if thats the temp at mo??

[Snow free zone]

Met office now going for a dry day here with sleet overnight, also sleet for tomorrow. A bit of a change from last night. Local BBC forecast now has no snow at all in the forecast (for here) dry today with sleet tomorrow.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snow free zone

[iand61]

Met office now going for a dry day here with sleet overnight, also sleet for tomorrow. A bit of a change from last night.

agreed, it does look like a bit of a downgrade from last night although last nights was a major upgrade from earlier in the day.

looking at the News 24 forecast map, most of the heavy snow appears over and to the East of the Pennines although it stil shows it covering much of our region through the duration of the fall.

as regards the timing of the snow; it was always going to be late afternoon onwards and more likely overnight when we saw it so nothing much has changed there.

i still feel that, whilst they seemed to have pulled back slightly from last nights "Day After Tomorrow" forecast, many of us will be pleasantly surprised in the morning.

temperatures have been higher overnight than on previous nights with ours in Bacup currently at 0.6c.

to me the lack of really cold air is more of a worry than precipitaion at the moment although some of the more experienced chart viewers than myself may be able to settle my nerves a little.

Ian

[Weather-history]

Here is the Met Office forecast for our region

Headline:

Gradually turning cloudier bringing spells of snow. Bitter winds.

Today:

Mostly dry to start with a few isolated snow showers. Then gradually turning cloudier from the southeast through the day bringing some spells of snow, although Cumbria staying mostly clear. Bitter east or northeasterly winds. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Tonight:

Cloud and spells of snow spreading across all parts. Snow should be mainly light but turning heavier at times over hills. Staying rather windy. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Monday:

Remaining cloudy with further spells of snow across the region, although these should ease through the day. Winds easing a little and becoming southeasterly. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Updated: 0335 on Sun 10 Jan 2010

Its already cloudy now! The symbol charts for Manchester has it sunny at 9am and 12pm. The BBC weather one is just as poor. A reason why you should take those symbol charts with a huge dose of salt.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Solar Cycles]

Met office now going for a dry day here with sleet overnight, also sleet for tomorrow. A bit of a change from last night. Local BBC forecast now has no snow at all in the forecast (for here) dry today with sleet tomorrow.

I think the problem being, is that they rely far too much on computer models when making these forecasts. This is why each forecasts is at odds with the previous one, more human input is needed from the boys at the MetO!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[martinj2]

Morning all-well I've got the sun lounger ready with a nice tall glass of rum and coke with ice-positively tropical here now at -0.2C.

[Snow free zone]

Which is why it seems a bit daft to me. What do you look at quickly if you are on the way out ? The symbols or read the forecast ? Not having a go at the beeb and meto but the written forecast is no where near the same as the basic one with the symbols, the same could also be said of last nights BBC forecast.

[Liam J]

-1.0c here and rising, noticed some places are reporting 2-3c now, lets hope the ppn stays away as id rather not see rain falling after such a nice clear and frosty weather....

you know when the met forecast heavy snow its not gonna happen, an the plus side when the temps rise above freezing i can finally wash my car!

[k19]

I actually think its disgraceful the way BBC forecasts change a large amount daily. In fact 90% of the time they are useless, im not ranting at the snow thing, because, i dont actually want it tonight, but generally the BBC chop and turn after every run.

[Snow free zone]

We are at 1.4c here. No melt though as it's cloudy.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

2.3C here; a staggering 17 degrees warmer than it was on Friday morning. Quite remarkable.

The GFS and Met Office charts suggest snow could fall over me for 48 hours, albeit never too heavy. I find that hard to imagine.

[R.P. McMurphy]

1.8C here too, not rising much now either. Same with mee too Oz. 18C difference from Friday.

[Thunder Snow]

Shame looks like i will miss most of snow, temp of 3c and a dew of -2.

[Oakwell]

Temperature has risen to +0.5 and mainly overcast with gap in the clouds to the SW

[Thunder Snow]

I think its gonna be very border-line with higher routes seeing snow. Lower areas wet snow/sleet maybe.

[Liam J]

not sure why the temps are rising like they are, when we had a westerly wind it was the coastal areas that warmed up to 3/4c and inland they got snow easy, however the easterly seems to be affecting all of us and warming most up, snow will be reserved for the hills im sure, a full day of sun never could get the temps to rise so fast!!

my temp -1c with a clear patch overhead, but has risen from -5.5c overnight DP -2c

[James M]

All the way up to -0.6°C here atm, feels positively tropical!

[Thunder Snow]

What are peoples thoughts for tonight then?