North West Cold Spell Discussion

[HotCuppa]

looking at the current setup, i can't see much of the Northwest missing out on some snowfall during the next day or so.

it's more a question of who gets what and if nothing changes i think that by Monday morning shovels will again be in use.

i do feel though that altitude will play a bigger part this time with high ground, certainly in the more Southern Parts of the region taking the brunt of the snow.

all that said, downgrade has followed upgrade and so on during the period leading up to this event so even subtle changes may make all the difference.

only time will tell.

Ian

Good forecast really. I dont even think altitude will remotely matter in the south of the region, possibly further north it may come into play.

Thing is though in this part of the country, temperatures matter quite a bit, especially here in the south.

I do think they need to sort out their advisories for what they think will accumulate. Take for example the rather large dumping we had the other day, and they throw out and advisory for 1-3cm lolz

This is the wording on the current advisory for tomorrow.

Further outbreaks of snow, some heavy and prolonged, with accumulations of 2 to 5 cm generally and locally around 5-10cm over high ground.

have you seen that streamer just north of caen? wow if only we could get something like that lol

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[seasider]

-3.2 here at the moment, is Preston getting a bit at the moment??

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/#key

[HotCuppa]

according to this, the BBC are going for snow from Sunday 6pm right through the early hours of Tuesday morning...hope they are right lol

[Snow free zone]

-3.2 here at the moment, is Preston getting a bit at the moment??

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/#key

No dry and clear here

[Osbourne One-Nil]

lets hope it doesnt get too cold or we'll completely miss out.

Not sure about that. It snowed nicely last night at mine while below -7C

[iand61]

temperature almost reached above freezing here today but thankfully peaked at -0.5c

they are now falling steadily and currently are at -3.2c.

Although the day has been almost wall to wall sunshine we had a few light showers this morning then one at 4.30pm but nothing to make a difference to current depths.

I do think that something much more substantial is set for the coming couple of days and after a difficult week at work due to the conditions it may be a case of "be careful what you wish for"

Ian

[karyo]

I've had a fun-packed afternoon on the Pennines (near Stalybridge)! There was a light but icy northeasterly wind which made the snow drift in places! Light fluries from time to time too!

Well, the bbc forecasts have moved the band of snow much further north than yesterday and the entire region should be affected starting from the southeastern areas around 3pm tomorrow and gradually extending northwards. The Pennine ares should see some heavy falls but for the rest, light to moderate snow is more likely unless we get lucky and catch some heavier pulses from the east/southeast. Very difficult to say which areas will be affected most at this stage, and certainly a case of watching the radar tomorrow!

Looking further ahead, both GFS and UKMO keep it cold for next week as the next low (Tuesday) undercuts the high pressure lock and the cold spell is extended!

Karyo

[cheshire snow]

I think the METO may have under estimated tomorrows snow event if you believe the GFS we are going to receive nearly 36hrs of light

persistant Snow i can see a good 15cm of snow for low lying areas and upto 25cm for higher ground that adding on to whats already on

the ground i may be totally wrong but that the way i see ATM

All eyes on the radar from about 1500 tomorrow the snow forecast from about 1800hrs Sun

good luck to everyone lets hope for another good event like the begining of the week LOL

C.S

[V for Very Cold]

There is potential here to dump 3 or 4 times what we have had over the next couple of days..the only down factor crippling this will be how cold it gets.

erm - we'll we've had about 8"-10" of snow over the last week - I can only dream about 3-4 times that lol

[Snow free zone]

Looking round at some of the charts on offer and taking into the account the BBC forecasts there is a fair bit of conflict.

Weather Online snow charts suggest sleet/rain for the coastal strip and for quite a way inland, GFS snow % charts on Net Weather never once suggest snow is a 100% possibility suggesting this will be more marginal than the BBC are thinking. Not getting my hopes up yet in any case.

Snow

[cheshire snow]

Now that is ramping CS ! I don't see anything like those amounts, the snow for our area will be mainly light although there is the possibility of some heavier stuff overnight Sunday into Monday morning. I would think the Southern Pennines could see up to 15cm, but more like 2-3cm for lover levels.

Fair enough Ian may be a ramp there but nothing would surprise me ATM

Oh and congratulations on your 4000 post

C.S

[Backtrack]

-2.5c and dropping nicely. I need it as cold as possible tonight so that the temps can't recover too much tomorrow. Due to the cloudcover tomorrow night, temps wont be able to get down below -1c.

[HotCuppa]

Looking round at some of the charts on offer and taking into the account the BBC forecasts there is a fair bit of conflict.

Weather Online snow charts suggest sleet/rain for the coastal strip and for quite a way inland, GFS snow % charts on Net Weather never once suggest snow is a 100% possibility suggesting this will be more marginal than the BBC are thinking. Not getting my hopes up yet in any case.

Snow

This event is likely to be very location based.

Weather Online sleet and rain thats just laughable at the very best sorry. According to that same GFS chart, my area is at 92% chance for snow after Midnight...not very likely now is it? GFS always underestimates the chance for snow or in some cases mid range over ramps it you cant win either way.

If anything its meto who are underestimating this event. Sure it will be light snow, but it will be persistent and potentially could dump quite a bit, especially for those closer to the coast getting the heaviest bursts of snow.

Certainly wont be anywhere remotely mild enough for sleet for those on the coasts

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[countvlad]

Hi everyone, im new to this but have been a voyeur for the past couple of weeks! been doing alot of lamp post watching.

temp at the mo in congleton is -1.7 with cloud cover. hoping for more snow.

[stoke weather watch]

Here in Macclesfield we have done well for Snow so far this winter but what are peoples views about tomorrows and mondays snow for Macclesfield??

[HotCuppa]

-2.5c and dropping nicely. I need it as cold as possible tonight so that the temps can't recover too much tomorrow. Due to the cloudcover tomorrow night, temps wont be able to get down below -1c.

You need to worry about you dp not your current temp, no point in worrying about snow cover it will go as and when we get milder air, that wont be tomorrow. I think we'll struggle to get much beyond 1C with most places being below this for much of the day.

[Snow free zone]

This event is likely to be very location based.

Weather Online sleet and rain thats just laughable at the very best sorry. According to that same GFS chart, my area is at 92% chance for snow after Midnight...not very likely now is it? GFS always underestimates the chance for snow or in some cases mid range over ramps it you cant win either way.

If anything its meto who are underestimating this event. Sure it will be light snow, but it will be persistent and potentially could dump quite a bit, especially for those closer to the coast getting the heaviest bursts of snow.

Certainly wont be anywhere remotely mild enough for sleet for those on the coasts

Only posting what's in the charts. They may well change, but those are the charts at the moment.

[snowdrifter]

Hi everyone, im new to this but have been a voyeur for the past couple of weeks! been doing alot of lamp post watching.

temp at the mo in congleton is -1.7 with cloud cover. hoping for more snow.

Hi countvlad - good to have you here. Hope you get more of the white stuff over the next 48 hrs.

HC - well said mate. I too can't see temps being marginal. Why do you reckon coastal areas are at an advantage mate?

[HotCuppa]

Only posting what's in the charts. They may well change, but those are the charts at the moment.

very unrealistic given they are very short range. They will change again in the next couple of hours on the next update.

Those closer to the coasts will likely get what I can only term as Lake effect snow prepping any weaker showers. I could be wrong, and we may just get stuck being cloudy in a raw easterly.

I am not so much as snow ramping but more suggesting there is far more to this than what a lot of the charts are making of it at the moment. Don't get me wrong it may just be a few showers now and then..but certainly come Monday as the snow advances further north towards us the chance will surely increase somewhat.

Here's hoping for lots of snow over the next couple of days for everyone. It's looking rather tastey for south of the region such as the wirral, liverpool, macclesfield perhaps as far north as Blackpool late on Sunday night..it will be light and it may be patchy..who cares as long as we get another top up :lol:

Edited January 9, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Liam J]

temp dropping very fast, -5.1c current, 10 mins ago it wasa -4.2c!!

no wheres that snow....

[chris78]

Hi countvlad - good to have you here. Hope you get more of the white stuff over the next 48 hrs.

HC - well said mate. I too can't see temps being marginal. Why do you reckon coastal areas are at an advantage mate?

Could that be because there is moe moisture round tne coast ....so even tnough showers are not coming of th sea they are still sort of reinvigerated by it....is this possible sounds plausable???

[Thunder Snow]

Currently -7 here, had 1cm of snow overnight, am i likly to see anything this week coming.

[weatherobsuk]

Heard on the wires that part of the Arndale Centre roof in Manchester collapsed today. Injuring 2.

[snowdrifter]

AS long as you get the PPN it will be snow - no Irish Sea factor in this set-up !

Ian, how realistic is this distribution for Monday would you say? Back-covering maybe??

[k19]

Ian, how realistic is this distribution for Monday would you say? Back-covering maybe??

To me that looks like the classic bbc "Snow will fall somewhere where white is showing" chart