3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 3

[TEITS]

On a slightly different note I will add that the models tonight have completely backed away from it turning milder. After Tues the risk of snowfall is significantly less but we should keep our lying snow. Rather worrying with regards to our levels of grit.

[Long haul to mild]

It will snow everywhere across the region tomorrow and into Monday, but there's a risk of it turning sleety near the coasts. Currently (and unexpectedly, since there's nowt on the radar) snowing in Norwich.

Yes, the METO seem to be accounting for this marginality in their forecasts tonight, which talks of outbreaks of "sleet and snow" across the region tomorrow.

I am still hoping that the marginality may help to be offset by the large snow cover we have here which I understand can have a small effect in these situations?

WIll be keeping an eye on those Dewpoints!

Edited January 9, 2010 by Chalk Serpent

[matt69l]

The BBC forecast is wrong.

Their is a large band of PPN heading towards the region which could last till Monday/Tuesday.

Let's hope so!

[meltz!]

On a slightly different note I will add that the models tonight have completely backed away from it turning milder. After Tues the risk of snowfall is significantly less but we should keep our lying snow. Rather worrying with regards to our levels of grit.

and if your a driving instructor!!!

[NothingHappensInNorwich]

N24 just showed the good forcast again - Snow in Norwich from this evening through 'til Monday

[Ben_Cambs]

Exactly, as TEITS predicted that we will see some very persistant snowfall and the heaviest of this will fall on Sunday Evening into Monday morning

[Mrsf16]

Im very confused .. so we're not getting the big area of precip from the continent and we're getting something else instead? Can someone explain, in simple terms, what to expect please. Thanking you .

[simon65]

well i dont know about you people but all that great wet stuff seems to be disapearing ,oh well bring on the great thaw lol

to say im disapointed it putting it mildly ,im off to kick my weather station !

Edited January 9, 2010 by simon65

[Ben_Cambs]

The band from the Low countries is now taking a more Easterly track. You may think it doesnt look big but it is much bigger than the 2 bands that affected EA on the 17th of December. Yes it has somewhat weakened, but as it comes over the North Sea convection because of a strengthing Easterly wind will pep it up and continue to feed more moisture into the system as it reaches EA later tonight. It is likely to be light but persistant, and even light snow over a period of time can bring good falls....

Edited January 9, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Timmytour]

My deffinition on that post was that the poster mentioned it's not due till and after midnight and people should not worry, that's why I thought it was an intelligent post becasue people are expecting it to be coming now or it will be developed soon.

You seem to think I am talking about the persons intelligence, I am not, I am talking about what is in the specific post I quote and not whether the poster is inteligent etc.....

Saint, I'm being a bit tongue in cheek anyway because as you know I want it to snow badly. But i think you'll agree that if somebody asked when's the big dump coming and got a reply of it's not happening, we'll get flurries or a dusting at best, you wouldn't be calling that reply intelligent!

You do seem to have been bigging up those who have been calling the big amounts of snow for us and somewhat dissing those who doubted it's going to happen. That's especially so to anyone coming on asking will it snow or not. I think it's as well not too get too carried away by the optimistic forecasts when replying to those people but remember there always is more than one point of view.

I think TEITS is a fine fine forecaster. But sometimes I have seen him take a contrary position to others on the forum I regard as fine fine forecasters. That doesn't make one of them wrong, it just comes down to the interpretation of what they see, hear and feel. There's always more than one point of view and that's a good thing. What's important is that the likes of TEITS have the knowledge to make a reasoned forecast

For my part i saw the BBC forecast a couple of days ago which had the continental front coming half way up the country and started to express a doubt that it would even reach London which others had as well. No real science in that I admit, but a gut feel from having seen those "great opportunities" fall down so many times in the past. I think there's unfortunately pretty widespread agreement about that now. some of our "new" area might get some nice amounts of snow from the showers but I know that I'm certainly not placed to see this where I live.

[Matt12]

Well, it seems the BBC have backtracked now (for the thousandth time today:rolleyes:) and are going for snow across all south eastern areas, including Hertfordshire. Looking at what's ahead, I think we will get at least an inch or 2 in the next 48 hours, maybe more.

Edited January 9, 2010 by Matt12

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I'm going back to the Kent board until later this evening to much confusion and disagreement on here at the moment, at least I shall have a positive time over on there lol sort it out you lot PLEASE,

[Matt12]

Saint, I'm being a bit tongue in cheek anyway because as you know I want it to snow badly. But i think you'll agree that if somebody asked when's the big dump coming and got a reply of it's not happening, we'll get flurries or a dusting at best, you wouldn't be calling that reply intelligent!

You do seem to have been bigging up those who have been calling the big amounts of snow for us and somewhat dissing those who doubted it's going to happen. That's especially so to anyone coming on asking will it snow or not. I think it's as well not too get too carried away by the optimistic forecasts when replying to those people but remember there always is more than one point of view.

I think TEITS is a fine fine forecaster. But sometimes I have seen him take a contrary position to others on the forum I regard as fine fine forecasters. That doesn't make one of them wrong, it just comes down to the interpretation of what they see, hear and feel. There's always more than one point of view and that's a good thing. What's important is that the likes of TEITS have the knowledge to make a reasoned forecast

For my part i saw the BBC forecast a couple of days ago which had the continental front coming half way up the country and started to express a doubt that it would even reach London which others had as well. No real science in that I admit, but a gut feel from having seen those "great opportunities" fall down so many times in the past. I think there's unfortunately pretty widespread agreement about that now. some of our "new" area might get some nice amounts of snow from the showers but I know that I'm certainly not placed to see this where I live.

Stay positive mate. I reckon we'll all get a few surprises in the coming days.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Well, it seems the BBC have backtracked now (for the thousandth time today:pardon:) and are going for snow across all south eastern areas, including Hertfordshire. Looking at what's ahead, I think we will get at least an inch or 2 in the next 48 hours, maybe more.

So have you finally made up your mind whats in store for us now Matt, give us your forecast and stick to it?

PMSL latest BBC Rob said snow in more areas now, wow that cuts it down a bit, what a joke you gotta laugh.

[Timmytour]

Stay positive mate. I reckon we'll all get a few surprises in the coming days.

Well that BBC foreast was a lot more positive than I've seen lately... but I'm concerned that i live in that patch above London that never quite seemed to get a white daub on it!!!!

[hobbielancie]

News 24 weather just now. Heavy snow for us all Tonight, Tomorrow and Monday. Mind you we knew that anyway

[remymartin]

I believe we will do ok for snow in the coming days

[Matt12]

So have you finally made up your mind whats in store for us now Matt, give us your forecast and stick to it?

I didn't forecast anything originally. All I said is (and I'll quote ALL of the contents of my previous posts, in order):-

"Yeah, but my main concern was (and is) that this will mainly affect East Anglia and areas South of London, with areas just above London getting next to nothing. I never had any doubt that Kent and East Anglia will get a pasting."

"Yeah, I think anything is still possible. Snow events like these often just evolve and surprise everyone, with some areas that weren't expecting much getting a pasting!"

"Well, as I said the situation will inevitably evolve, so we may well see some heavy snow still in Herts. We'll see!"

Those were all of the posts btw<_<

Edited January 9, 2010 by Matt12

[saint]

Well that BBC foreast was a lot more positive than I've seen lately... but I'm concerned that i live in that patch above London that never quite seemed to get a white daub on it!!!!

How much snow did you get Tuesday/Wednesday?

[bbtablet]

Well, I've just watched the 20.00 hrs forecast on BBC Channel 80, and that was a considerable escalation of the snow risk on earlier reports.

If Rob is right there is hell to come across the whole country in the next few days.

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

cant see any thing va the lamposts any one else in ipswich about radar saying it should be!!!

[Matt12]

I didn't forecast anything originally. All I said is (and I'll quote ALL of the contents of my previous posts, in order):-

"Yeah, but my main concern was (and is) that this will mainly affect East Anglia and areas South of London, with areas just above London getting next to nothing. I never had any doubt that Kent and East Anglia will get a pasting."

"Yeah, I think anything is still possible. Snow events like these often just evolve and surprise everyone, with some areas that weren't expecting much getting a pasting!"

"Well, as I said the situation will inevitably evolve, so we may well see some heavy snow still in Herts. We'll see!"

Those were all of the posts btw<_<

And these weren't my forecasts/opinion - I was just going by the BBC anyway. To be honest, I don't have enough weather knowledge to form forecasts.

[Southernman]

Francis Wilson on Sky says East and West Sussex and Kent will get the worst of it. Any comments?

[bbtablet]

How much snow did you get Tuesday/Wednesday?

I wouldn't worry about their "patches". All evening the BBC have been saying bad for Essex (no mention of Suffolk or Norfolk), but the solid blocks of white on their map are NOT on Essex and ARE on Suffolk and Norfolk! I think it is called "hedging their bets"!

Incidentally, I was born in Homewood Road, St. Albans.

[Summer of 76]

I notice my outside temperature has gone up inthe past hour to just under freezing and I have seen a report from Swaffham, Norfolk of rain and a thaw taking place.

Anyone in that direction can confirm this and just wondered what everyones air temperatures are at the moment