Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Wales123098]

Unbelieveable. What college is this? Penylan by any chance?

My school in cardiff is shut again iswell

[keithlucky]

It's really developing now but!!!!!! it's moving wnw - I think within the next hour definitely mid wales will see some more heavier snow and I think the back edge of this front may well give some snow to south wales also

Developing all the time andy got yellows in it could give a covering.

[andymusic]

Reports on South WEst thread of Snow....Anybody know if any of this is likely to head our way ???

If that's swindon way then that is the snow that's heading our way now

[nomad098]

loads on our country single track lane - compounded 4x4 tracks i'd say 2 - 3 inches up to 1 and a half foot drifts

I knew I should have NOT took this job in cardiff

when everybody comes into work tomorrow I might just head up to storey arms just to get a fix just love this SNOW

[andymusic]

Developing all the time andy got yellows in it could give a covering.

try this one kieth - slightly more high res

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[worldairgroup]

just been catching up with all your recent posts, internet went down earlier today so this has been a major case of catch up!

No snow here Upper Boat A470 apart from the small flakes, blowing in the wind, which I am sure you all experienced today.

Of course bitterly dissappointed with the overnight news, but this new front andy mentions is certainly interesting, not had chance to look at Monday/Tuesday as yet.

Edited January 10, 2010 by worldairgroup

[Jimbob100]

If that's swindon way then that is the snow that's heading our way now

Yes that's it.........

[andymusic]

I knew I should have NOT took this job in cardiff

when everybody comes into work tomorrow I might just head up to storey arms just to get a fix just love this SNOW

I'm originally from cardiff so I know how frustrating it is being closer to the coast in these situations - my dad had to help me out yesterday with dropping some stuff off to us as our cars were getting stuck and he came up from whitchurch and couldn't believe in his words "It's like a different world up here"

[CardiffStorm]

My school in cardiff is shut again iswell

That is Whitchurch High by any chance?

[Wales123098]

That is Whitchurch High by any chance?

Nope. Mines Bishop Of Llandaff CIW High.

[CLH the red dragon]

Has anyone seen the yards? I cannot believe there's much if anything left. What happened to "staying in at play time?!

[bennytes]

anybody got a time around when the good stuff hits our shores

dont want a late night for nothing like last night

well, using my highly scientific pencil and paper, I estimate an arrival time of around 205am, or so, for us around here MI.

that's assuming it stays on the same track and doesn't do it's usual fizzling out party trick.

[keithlucky]

try this one kieth - slightly more high res

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Even the line of showers over london given them heavy snow looking promising.

[andymusic]

well, using my highly scientific pencil and paper, I estimate an arrival time of around 205am, or so, for us around here MI.

that's assuming it stays on the same track and doesn't do it's usual fizzling out party trick.

that pencil and paper is more than the meto use as they can't get any flippin forecast right!

Edited January 10, 2010 by andymusic

[Wales123098]

Has anyone seen the yards? I cannot believe there's much if anything left. What happened to "staying in at play time?!

Its not that. Take into consideration where students and teachers live. My school is fairly fine I ve been down to that area today but soon as you go up the A470 past Tongwynlais its still 4-7inches thick. I can barely get out weve managed by parking the car at the bottom of the hill on the main road and not even trying to attempt getting it back up. Like half the teachers in my school live up the valleys iswell. You live in Pencoed where the snow isnt deep, here in the far north of Cardiff its not really melting much and the roads are still covered in at least 2inches.

[J10]

The GFS still wants to pull up the warmer upper air temps for tuesday:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn482.png

However as we get in to wednesday and a more easterly flow kicks in the warmer upper air temps are forced out:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn602.png < upper air temps

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs603.gif < Heavy Precipitation

GFS 18z gives a rain to snow event here in South Wales, better than all rain!

It starts off as snow (for 5 minutes) then rain then snow.

GFS 18hz is a better run for snow, much of Wales would see snow for a good deal of this,

looks at the slight undercut from these charts.

12 Hz Runs

18 Hz Runs

Certainly trending in the right direction.

The NAE looks like a fully snow event, upper air temps are very promising through the run (which goes to Tues 18Hz).

[Marcus_surfer]

Heavy snow reported in Gloucester

[J10]

Upper air temps on the latest NAE still remain low:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/10/basis18/ukuk/t850/10011218_1018.gif

So the front runs into the cold air:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/10/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011218_1018.gif

This is great for Snow. GFS 18Z now has a snow event also but it goes about it a diffrent way (rain to snow)

NAE goes all snow

Indeed

[Jayfromcardiff]

Unbelieveable. What college is this? Penylan by any chance?

St Davids college.

[bennytes]

that pencil and paper is more than the meto use as they can't get any flippin forecast right!

yep

that'll be £190000 please madian!

[NAOwillgetyou]

well, using my highly scientific pencil and paper, I estimate an arrival time of around 205am, or so, for us around here MI.

that's assuming it stays on the same track and doesn't do it's usual fizzling out party trick.

should be here before that mate heavy stuff just arriving at bristol now see attached reds and yellows now

[Bobby]

18z NAE

A decent area of snow is heading towards us looking at the radar... no doubt it will vanish into the ether or miss me by inches towards the N though.

[CLH the red dragon]

Its not that. Take into consideration where students and teachers live. My school is fairly fine I ve been down to that area today but soon as you go up the A470 past Tongwynlais its still 4-7inches thick. I can barely get out weve managed by parking the car at the bottom of the hill on the main road and not even trying to attempt getting it back up. Like half the teachers in my school live up the valleys iswell. You live in Pencoed where the snow isnt deep, here in the far north of Cardiff its not really melting much and the roads are still covered in at least 2inches.

I've been snow touring today, took in Gilfach, Porth, Ponty, Peterston and Cardiff. There was little not passable where I went. And all the supply teachers live in Cardiff anyway

And school's are not teacher specific. My bro has been digging himself out of Caerphily to get to Bridgend all week. I cannot believe all the closed schools have mountain dwelling teachers exclusively.

Edited January 10, 2010 by CLH the red dragon

[J10]

With the embedded cold ans s easterly dragging cold air off the continent

and the heavy precipation causing the dewpoint to fall the precipation will definately be snow cant see how rain could fall.

If the GFS is right, then when the snow falls through the clouds it thaws as it passes through the air above 0c, at 850Hpa, so turns to rain even before it reaches the ground. This happened on the event on the Tuesday after Christmas.

With NAE, 850HPa temps are -5 to -6c at 6pm Tuesday compared to -1 to +1 on GFS.

Therefore snow on NAE, Rain/Snow on GFS.

-------------------

By the way a dusting of snow outside settling on car and starting to fill the gaps elsewhere.

[Elnonio]

should be here before that mate heavy stuff just arriving at bristol now see attached reds and yellows now

looking good!!