Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Fax charts are out:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif < @ 48h

You can see the low here- SE flow with a warm front pushing into the SW, followed very closely by a cold front behind it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif < @ 60h

Cold front catches up with the warm front and forms an occluded front heading for us.

Looks good for Snow on the fax charts

[Bobby]

Looks like the heavy precipitation will struggle to reach here looking at those faxes. Sigh. Better for those further S though.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Barb-

[whiskers]

just looked at the south wales argus it had a severe warning for snow for tomorrow and tuesday for south wales the date it was put in there was 1.20 today is this still on?

Edited January 10, 2010 by whiskers

[bennytes]

derek brockway the other evening was showing old footage of bad events around wales. What struck me about what he was showing, was that they seem to occur between every 11 - 15 years here (going all the way back to the thirties) so that makes it roughly 1995 - 1999 should have been the big last event. I know before that it was '82 (83?). So is one due or over due now, historians? has there been a biggy between 82 and now? if so how many years have passsed?

woody

last real 'biggie' was 82. everywhere got slammed then. there have been events since, which were big for some, but not all, but 82 was definitely the big one.

on a side note, I am delivering around the Haverfordwest area tomorrow. what are the side/country roads like down there now?

[CLH the red dragon]

Countryfile then.

3 days of snow. Hmm.

[DeepSnow]

Still very light snow here. Will it be just light snow tonight then if anything?

Well looks like i might not have to worry about school being closed wednesday, and walking through loads of snow to get there! lol

[andymusic]

Just found out that the head of the Met office is on more than the prime minister - £190,000 per year - mmmmmmm well they screwed the winter forecast (mild when it should have been called mega cold like Joe B called it in America, which mean't the councils all over the UK relaxed and didn't equip themselves with enough salt for the roads) and they screwed todays forecast - making people strip the shops of supplies and panic buy when they didn't have to - SO! - I think some of the staff at the Met office should be sacked - surely if one of us makes major mistakes in our jobs, our jobs are then on the line or we get the sack so why not the met office - just because it's a "not so sure fire" science doesn't mean they can't be held accountable for the stupid mistakes they make and just like the banks they should be raked over hot coals with enquiries to find out who made the wrong decisions and then decide whether that person or persons deserve to keep their over paid jobs!

Edited January 10, 2010 by andymusic

[mrmonopoly]

Fax charts are out:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif < @ 48h

You can see the low here- SE flow with a warm front pushing into the SW, followed very closely by a cold front behind it.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif < @ 60h

Cold front catches up with the warm front and forms an occluded front heading for us.

Looks good for Snow on the fax charts

Take a closer look at the fax charts, whirling around that low is a wind pushing behind from the adlantic turning the winds to a NE directly from the sea. as it hooks round. If it snows it wont snow once thats passed over.

[andymusic]

just looked at the south wales argus it had a severe warning for snow for tomorrow and tuesday for south wales the date it was put in there was 1.20 today is this still on?

Tuesday into wednesday is looking very favourable for a blizzard - YES!

[CLH the red dragon]

Take a closer look at the fax charts, whirling around that low is a wind pushing behind from the adlantic turning the winds to a NE directly from the sea. as it hooks round. If it snows it wont snow once thats passed over.

ATlantic

[alijoe]

light sleet flurry here. Well better than nothing...

[andymusic]

light sleet flurry here. Well better than nothing...

Sorry Ali - but even I was suckered by the met office's computers on this one but we still have tuesday into wednesday in the short term and the rest of the winter in the long term

[DeepSnow]

Just found out that the head of the Met office is on more than the prime minister - £190,000 per year - mmmmmmm well they screwed the winter forecast (mild when it should have been called mega cold like Joe B called it in America, which mean't the councils all over the UK relaxed and didn't equip themselves with enough salt for the roads) and they screwed todays forecast - making people strip the shops of supplies and panic buy when they didn't have to - SO! - I think some of the staff at the Met office should be sacked - surely if one of us makes major mistakes in our jobs, our jobs are then on the line or we get the sack so why not the met office - just because it's a "not so sure fire" science doesn't mean they can't be held accountable for the stupid mistakes they make and just like the banks they should be raked over hot coals with enquiries to find out who made the wrong decisions and then decide whether that person or persons deserve to keep their over paid jobs!

Oooo, where did you find that out? thats a bit much isn't it? They could atleast try to do a bit of a better job lol

[mrmonopoly]

Sorry Ali - but even I was suckered by the met office's computers on this one but we still have tuesday into wednesday in the short term and the rest of the winter in the long term

Here here !

Trust my guys Feb is going to be awsome

[andymusic]

Oooo, where did you find that out? thats a bit much isn't it? They could atleast try to do a bit of a better job lol

Along with the bankers, the politicians and the weather guys who are all over paid - they should all be accountable to someone and if they get their jobs wrong they should have appropriate action taken against them - if not it makes a mockery of the responsible nature of these jobs and we are all suckered in to paying for these people without getting value for money

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

On the fax charts it does come right over us:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax72s.gif < @ 72h

Of course the models can change but positive signs i think from the UKMO, NAE + Fax.

Just looking at the Ensemble mean for upper air temps and precipitation on the Meteociel website and when the front comes over us at 48-54hours the mean doesnt take the upper air temperatures above 0C. That is good a good sign.

When i have looked at the GFS 06Z and 12Z i noticed that the 12Z doesnt bring the higher upper air temps as far north as the GFS 06z did.

Perhaps the GFS may slowly fall in line with the other models? the 18z may well push the slightly milder air further south again

Just a few things to think about at this stage anyway.

[soupsurfer7]

I'm very doubtful that Wales will get snow on Tuesday...It seems that in Britain whenever there is a battle between mild and cold air, the mild air wins quickly. Also many forecasts are predicting temps above zero e.g 3s,4s and 5s.

[swales]

Fair enough they made a mistake but as all of you know forecasting here is extremely difficult... we have to refer to these forums and nowcasting to give us some idea and at the same time using our local knowledge and even then things change and go wrong. People over at the Met Office will make some mistakes, like people in the real world do, like people on this forum do.

[CLH the red dragon]

I'm very doubtful that Wales will get snow on Tuesday...It seems that in Britain whenever there is a battle between mild and cold air, the mild air wins quickly. Also many forecasts are predicting temps above zero e.g 3s,4s and 5s.

So were Countryfile but that didn't stop them progging major snow.

[Bobby]

On the fax charts it does come right over us:

True but it'll be pretty weak by that point I would imagine, the heavier precip is earlier on over SW England.

[andymusic]

Just found out that the head of the Met office is on more than the prime minister - £190,000 per year - mmmmmmm well they screwed the winter forecast (mild when it should have been called mega cold like Joe B called it in America, which mean't the councils all over the UK relaxed and didn't equip themselves with enough salt for the roads) and they screwed todays forecast - making people strip the shops of supplies and panic buy when they didn't have to - SO! - I think some of the staff at the Met office should be sacked - surely if one of us makes major mistakes in our jobs, our jobs are then on the line or we get the sack so why not the met office - just because it's a "not so sure fire" science doesn't mean they can't be held accountable for the stupid mistakes they make and just like the banks they should be raked over hot coals with enquiries to find out who made the wrong decisions and then decide whether that person or persons deserve to keep their over paid jobs!

Seems to me that a lot of you weather enthusiasts could probably do a better job than the over paid £190,000 per year director of the met office so anyone want to apply for his job?

[Bobby]

Lot of uncertainty though about this. These set ups have tradionally delivered very well for us here (apart from the last one).

[andymusic]

Fair enough they made a mistake but as all of you know forecasting here is extremely difficult... we have to refer to these forums and nowcasting to give us some idea and at the same time using our local knowledge and even then things change and go wrong. People over at the Met Office will make some mistakes, like people in the real world do, like people on this forum do.

We don't get paid £190,000 to make mistakes though

[keithlucky]

Just found out that the head of the Met office is on more than the prime minister - £190,000 per year - mmmmmmm well they screwed the winter forecast (mild when it should have been called mega cold like Joe B called it in America, which mean't the councils all over the UK relaxed and didn't equip themselves with enough salt for the roads) and they screwed todays forecast - making people strip the shops of supplies and panic buy when they didn't have to - SO! - I think some of the staff at the Met office should be sacked - surely if one of us makes major mistakes in our jobs, our jobs are then on the line or we get the sack so why not the met office - just because it's a "not so sure fire" science doesn't mean they can't be held accountable for the stupid mistakes they make and just like the banks they should be raked over hot coals with enquiries to find out who made the wrong decisions and then decide whether that person or persons deserve to keep their over paid jobs!

Reason hes so well paid sombody has to stand and spout the gw debate down our throats, with facts and fiction rammed down our throat in a goverment shock horror campaign.hes not paid for for his outstanding abilities hes paid for boosting goverments gw taxation policy.

Edited January 10, 2010 by keithlucky

[CLH the red dragon]

Reason hes so well paid sombody has to stand and spout the gm debate down our throats, with facts and fiction rammed down our throat in a goverment shock horror campaign.hes not paid for for his outstanding abilities hes paid for boosting goverments gm taxation policy.

GM?