Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[swales]

MetO warning for Tues/Weds showing most of Wales Heavy Snow.

^beat me to it

Edited January 10, 2010 by shaunwales

[Ukwoody]

I note the bbc news wales page has a story saying warning dropped but forecasters still say 2 -5cm overnight possibly 10cm on higher ground. Perhaps I wont quite top my self yet...

woody

[Jimbob100]

I note the bbc news wales page has a story saying warning dropped but forecasters still say 2 -5cm overnight possibly 10cm on higher ground. Perhaps I wont quite top my self yet...

woody

lol

[Ukwoody]

I wonder if the met are now in a state of flux. they are indeed issuing, cancelling, re-issuing. They are eiher desperatly trying to cover there arses, remove the egg from their face or in such a state they dont know if they're coming or going! I dont think I'm gonna pay any real attention to them unless they are flash warnings or our own "local" team on here suggest otherwise. Praise to Jackone who so far hasn't been that far of the mark.

woody

[mrmonopoly]

Well a dusting on top of what weve got is still extremely poor in my books.

that 17CM thawed quick then

Its already starting to turn to rain over the east midlands

[Cymro]

that 17CM thawed quick then

Its already starting to turn to rain over the east midlands

It hasnt thawed, what i mean is, its a let down compared to the 2 inches or so i was expecting, You seem very sarcy and wishing to prove a point, one word for you mate get in your bloody car and drive! and stop trying to make a mockery of me.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Difficult to call Tues/Wed will the front make it this far north? and if it does will it be of rain, sleet or snow?

GFS 06Z Upper air temps:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn602.png < 60h

There could well be some attempt to push these above 0C which isnt good for snow especially for those on low ground and close to the coast.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn662.png < 66h

Then the milder upper temps get forced out as the front moves in

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn664.png < 66h precipitation chart

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn724.png < 72h precipitation chart

So lets wait for the 12z data to come in see where things are going then.

[willitbsunny]

I don't want to put downers on people as no-one loves the snow more than me but we must be realistic - this cold spell was always going to end at some point and I really believe today is that day.

The snow flurries have stopped here now - lying snow is thawing very quickly this afternoon and it feels far less cold outside. I think the mild air has won over and people need to accept this. Fact.

Any precipitation of any real amount would now be sleet/rain I believe.

[ourson]

Difficult to call Tues/Wed will the front make it this far north? and if it does will it be of rain, sleet or snow?

GFS 06Z Upper air temps:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn602.png < 60h

There could well be some attempt to push these above 0C which isnt good for snow especially for those on low ground and close to the coast.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn662.png < 66h

Then the milder upper temps get forced out as the front moves in

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn664.png < 66h precipitation chart

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn724.png < 72h precipitation chart

So lets wait for the 12z data to come in see where things are going then.

As a total beginner I haven't got a clue! What's your reading of it?

[chopper66]

I don't want to put downers on people as no-one loves the snow more than me but we must be realistic - this cold spell was always going to end at some point and I really believe today is that day.

The snow flurries have stopped here now - lying snow is thawing very quickly this afternoon and it feels far less cold outside. I think the mild air has won over and people need to accept this. Fact.

Any precipitation of any real amount would now be sleet/rain I believe.

It snowed lightly to moderately here in Mumbles all morning and started to stick. I live right on the seafront - we are normally the last place to ever get snow. In fact, Mumbles is one of the only places in South Wales right now without lying snow (Excluding the sprinkling this morning).

[willitbsunny]

It snowed lightly to moderately here in Mumbles all morning and started to stick. I live right on the seafront - we are normally the last place to ever get snow. In fact, Mumbles is one of the only places in South Wales right now without lying snow (Excluding the sprinkling this morning).

Maybe so but the air feels much milder - this is the end of it i'm afraid....

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

As a total beginner I haven't got a clue! What's your reading of it?

To be honest im just looking at all the charts available trying to figure out whats going to happen myself. As we get closer to the timeframe (Tues/Wed) it will become more clear.

We dont want to see milder upper air temperatures otherswise rain/sleet more likely- we want these upper temps to remain as low as possible, and of course we want the front to push over us to ensure we get some snow.

[Marcus_surfer]

Maybe so but the air feels much milder - this is the end of it i'm afraid....

It feels so much milder because of how cold its been under clear skies over the past week or two

[benb]

Difficult to call Tues/Wed will the front make it this far north? and if it does will it be of rain, sleet or snow?

GFS 06Z Upper air temps:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn602.png < 60h

There could well be some attempt to push these above 0C which isnt good for snow especially for those on low ground and close to the coast.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn662.png < 66h

Then the milder upper temps get forced out as the front moves in

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn664.png < 66h precipitation chart

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn724.png < 72h precipitation chart

So lets wait for the 12z data to come in see where things are going then.

Good idea. How this low interacts with the high here is the key. In football terms, I'm looking for a high scoring draw between the cold air in the block and the warm air in the low.

Edited January 10, 2010 by benb

[welshwizard]

it is much milder today +3 in ogmore vale but still - 2 up bwlch mountain and even though not snowing much up there if you drive towards abergwynfi it is awful condtions,the snow has blown off mountain and blocked roads very very large drifts,in fact we had to move down to lower level because it was very bitter and blowing snow dust everywhere,i think up there it will stick if it comes but down here does feel much milder than of late,i hope if we do get some the temp drops as i cant see it doing a lot with wet roads and warmish temps(well not warm but warmer lol) road to abergwynfi is closed and very hard to get over even in 4x4 going behind tractor. my kids keep saying dad will we get drifts like that down by the house and yest i was saying i think we may by tues night but looking less likely now lads and ladys what you think, i told them its only the begining we got lots of jan left and all feb but they want it now lol.

kids in it.

[nomad098]

Do you ever get the feeling that this weather set up has got alot of the professional weather forecasters flumoxed simply because its a mix of what we have had over the last 10 years or so with what used to happen 20 - 30 - 40 years ago and the models are struggling to make sense of it leading the forecasters astray

I understand why the metoffice are giving warnings then retracting them its simply a case of the fluidity of the situation by tommorrow things will probably change and the general public should be made aware by these professionals what advisory's really mean a possibility and nothing more

[welshwizard]

Do you ever get the feeling that this weather set up has got alot of the professional weather forecasters flumoxed simply because its a mix of what we have had over the last 10 years or so with what used to happen 20 - 30 - 40 years ago and the models are struggling to make sense of it leading the forecasters astray

I understand why the metoffice are giving warnings then retracting them its simply a case of the fluidity of the situation by tommorrow things will probably change and the general public should be made aware by these professionals what advisory's really mean a possibility and nothing more

you could be right as until late last night nearly everyone was saying light snow then heavy then very heavy (some even said blizzards)and then showers and remaining very cold, then 6 hrs later its much milder,no snow and every one seems to be down beat,how can they say looking good for snow and then in such a short space of time it changes, there may be a simple explanation for this but due to me not knowing anything about weather forcasting at all, i just read these sites etc and dont understand how things change so fast in this country, yet other countrys seem to be far more accurate, maybe its due to our postion with water all around us.

[pyrotech]

Do you ever get the feeling that this weather set up has got alot of the professional weather forecasters flumoxed simply because its a mix of what we have had over the last 10 years or so with what used to happen 20 - 30 - 40 years ago and the models are struggling to make sense of it leading the forecasters astray

I understand why the metoffice are giving warnings then retracting them its simply a case of the fluidity of the situation by tommorrow things will probably change and the general public should be made aware by these professionals what advisory's really mean a possibility and nothing more

Yes but adviories are for today and monday, warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday. Now may be i am an optamist but if Meto have issued new warnings after just retracting some today when they could get away with leaving them as advisories then i would say they must be fairly confident.

[welshwizard]

Yes but adviories are for today and monday, warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday. Now may be i am an optamist but if Meto have issued new warnings after just retracting some today when they could get away with leaving them as advisories then i would say they must be fairly confident.

but maybe the warnings are so we go out shopping again and buy more food lol,i just think with the temp rising the risks are far less and also why give us these warnings in the first place if they could get away with advisories,as i said im no good at this game but i do think that our met office can be way off the mark compared to other countries.

[Ukwoody]

I must confess I get a bit confuesewd by their warnings. good example, earlier on the issued and early warning of a mod risk of severe event for most of wales. NOw they have issued advisories for some of the same counties for the same time span. Whats the real difference?

woody

[Ukwoody]

actually i notice pembs has been totally removed from the warnings for today and tomorrow now. Sadly if the temps do reach 4 tomorrow that will melt the existing snow so Tuesdays would be fresh.

woody

[DeepSnow]

Snow stopped here a while ago, temp 2.1C, fallen a bit in the last hour. Only real snow left is on the grass and still big patches there that are now clear. Not taking the new warnings that serious yet, will wait and see what they are like on tuesday then i might take it a bit more serious! I think we will get sleet or rain here though tue/wed. For tonight im not expecting much if anything atall. If we get an inch from showers then great, if we get nothing then tuff luck really, just gotta wait to see what happens as we go into tuesday. :S

I think the end of jan through to feb will be our best time, would i be right in saying that is normally when the waters around the uk are at their coldest?

Edited January 10, 2010 by Deepsnow

[bennytes]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0110/tracker.html

iceberg spotted just off Ireland. first time in 40 years.

14:58

[loadsa]

Meteox forcast looks good for tomorrow morning

Click on linky and let it run through 24hrs

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&soort=loop24uur&URL

[benb]

Not being funny, but is that not the last 24hrs? Not sure myself, but if it's not then it's a carbon copy of today!