Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[J10]

Guys I have been telling you this will happen for last few days. Its already drizzle here (of the rain variety).

I could see the DAM and HPA being blown north the whole time. IM not an expert but I can read charts.

I predicted mid wales for snow but even thats only for a limited time. The adlantic is a lot stronger than people think it is. You also have to bare in mind this cold snap has out lived most cold snaps in the last 30 years.

There is still plenty of winter left yet a whole 8 weeks or so. Even March can bring heavy snowfall.

There is still plenty of actvity in the arctic and things can and probably will take a turn in Feb.

What is the Adlantic (sic) you keep talking about?

You have been calling this for a few days, if we do get the GFS scenario over the next few days, then I will say well done, but it hasn't happened yet.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Not all the links i posted seem to be working but you can get the UKMO ppn charts and upper temps from the meteociel website:

http://www.meteociel...tations/24h.htm

Certainly looks like a snow event on the UKMO 12Z

[impster]

trying to rain very finely now in Machynlleth!

[Bobby]

UKMO and NAE would certainly deliver a snow event for most of Wales, especially the south. But I'll believe it when I see it.

[benb]

Let's compare the GFS and UKMO.

1. The 850s are not conducive to snow, on the GFS from 9am Tuesday For SW Wales, and from around midnight Tuesday for teh rest of Wales. In comparison the UKMO has 850HPA temps below zero, for all of Wales until midnight Tuesday, and then a small areas right in the centre of the low over SW Wales midday Wednesday. So the UKMO means a largely snow event, and a complete snow event for much of Wales. Hardly surprisingly the NAE tends to agree, with very cold upper until 12H Tuesday, not out beyond this yet.

2. Not that relevant is such situations

3. The winds stays south east on the UKMO but not so much on the GFS whihc goes southerly for a time.

4 and 5. Answered by 3.

So in summary, despite insignificant synoptic differences between GFS and UKMO, whichever happens has a major impact on snowfall amounts into next week.

GFS = Largely non event, UKMO = Major Snow Event for many in line with current Met Office warning.

Which is more likely, I'll let you know after the event.

Good answer! Thanks.

[Snowyowl9]

Had some freezing snizzle here(a mix of drizzle /snow particles and grains froze on contact and now given another crusty layer to the 2nd lot of snow currently back to light snow and drifting on top of that layer now.

-0.3c

Once that stops there won`t be any drifting now,that happened in feb 1986 alot lots of snow grains blizzards then stopped once the light snow stopped.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[mrmonopoly]

What is the Adlantic (sic) you keep talking about?

You have been calling this for a few days, if we do get the GFS scenario over the next few days, then I will say well done, but it hasn't happened yet.

Please dont think im crazy, but this has proven to work for me many many times. I print the charts out, and I use a pendulum to give me some signs on whats likely to happen to systems that are in place. I guess in many ways this is no differant to trying to apply maths to a system that has no constant (Equations) so far my pendulum is about 80% accurate.

Feb is looking intresting however, so watch this space. The adlantic is only going to win for a short time. Something is going to happen over the northen hemisphere thats going to drag more cold over much of the north. When those charts start to show in FL I give you what I think then.

This is how I picture you:

The picture didnt show, if its an insult thats probably a good thing, smug laminate floor lols. Not being smug just dont be so quick peeps to dissmiss what I say next time

Edited January 10, 2010 by mrmonopoly

[Ukwoody]

Please dont think im crazy, but this has proven to work for me many many times. I print the charts out, and I use a pendulum to give me some signs on whats likely to happen to systems that are in place.

:lol: :lol: B) B)

ruddy heck, I fell off the settee then.

woody

[Marcus_surfer]

Evening folks. Have not had a big snow event with Mild atlantic air and cold air for many years, maybe 10 years. Will this be the time we get heavy snow from the atlantic? We will just have to find out! x

[Ukwoody]

derek brockway the other evening was showing old footage of bad events around wales. What struck me about what he was showing, was that they seem to occur between every 11 - 15 years here (going all the way back to the thirties) so that makes it roughly 1995 - 1999 should have been the big last event. I know before that it was '82 (83?). So is one due or over due now, historians? has there been a biggy between 82 and now? if so how many years have passsed?

woody

Edited January 10, 2010 by ukwoody

[Marcus_surfer]

is there any snow on the way for soth west wales tonight??

unlikely, but i would not rule out a flurry

[pascalsbongo]

If you want the snow you got to go to it.

Travelled up the A4067 past Dan Yr Ogof ,and pulled into a small farmers cut into a field ,a few miles past the small village of Crai.

Found a lovely steep hill and had a good three hours of boarding,sledging ,snow men blah blah blah with my son,all thoroughly enjoyable.

On leaving about 4pm it was still snowing moderatly up there all be it ranging from very fine to medium size flakes at times.

By the time we got back down just before Ystradgynlais im sure there was even fine drizzle in the air.

As for in general forecast....what a load of overcooked over cautious crap.

Thats it for now.

South Wales went out with barely a whimper.

I thought it would be the Atlantic which would defeat us , but infact the eastern system switched sides and cheated on us, on a par with Thierry Henrys handball versus the Irish it was a shockingly bad deception.

However if this is to be the last cold spell then its been great whilst it lasted,radar watching, will it wont it, GFS ABC XYZ,Fergie says this Fergie says that,the various snow shields,the usual gloating of those in higher areas etc etc ,been really great.

Dont believe the forecasts for the week ahead,its rain rain rain.....

Am gonna miss you guys ....

(likely this wont be reciprocated lol)

[Marcus_surfer]

If you want the snow you got to go to it.

Travelled up the A4067 past Dan Yr Ogof ,and pulled into a small farmers cut into a field ,a few miles past the small village of Crai.

Found a lovely steep hill and had a good three hours of boarding,sledging ,snow men blah blah blah with my son,all thoroughly enjoyable.

On leaving about 4pm it was still snowing moderatly up there all be it ranging from very fine to medium size flakes at times.

By the time we got back down just before Ystradgynlais im sure there was even fine drizzle in the air.

As for in general forecast....what a load of overcooked over cautious crap.

Thats it for now.

South Wales went out with barely a whimper.

I thought it would be the Atlantic which would defeat us , but infact the eastern system switched sides and cheated on us, on a par with Thierry Henrys handball versus the Irish it was a shockingly bad deception.

However if this is to be the last cold spell then its been great whilst it lasted,radar watching, will it wont it, GFS ABC XYZ,Fergie says this Fergie says that,the various snow shields,the usual gloating of those in higher areas etc etc ,been really great.

Dont believe the forecasts for the week ahead,its rain rain rain.....

Am gonna miss you guys ....

(likely this wont be reciprocated lol)

Still got Feb and March to go, don't give up!!!!!!!!!!

[andymusic]

Snow will occur much before that - all forecasters are agreeing that tuesday into wednesday will give us a lot of snow in wales!!!! and the cold still isn't gonna dissappear too readily after that - admittedly it won't be the biting cold we had last week but it'll still be cold enough for snow events. Onto the coming weeks - and after a brief warming but nothing really above 6 -7 centigrade we will probably be heading back into the freezer for more of the same! An unbelieveable winter so far and like the poster said above the rest of this month still to come plus february and March and April - who knows how much worse it may well get.

Edited January 10, 2010 by andymusic

[A-Dizzle]

Still very light flurries here, is there any more snow tonight?

[andymusic]

Still very light flurries here, is there any more snow tonight?

Yep

[DeepSnow]

We have a bit of light snow here now! I must say dont give up on winter yet, we are only what, half way through? still got plenty of time. Its just going to get a bit warmer for a while, that happens, im sure we will get plenty of cold and snowy spells over the next month and half or more!

Yep

how much? lol

[Elnonio]

BBc are forecasting the most boring, pointless weather ever for Cardiff tonight - drizzle. I could cry!

[Jamie.]

Looking at the radar and the front moving NW into Irish Sea has barely moved! If it was 100+miles further East we'd be having constant moderate/heavy snow fall Today - like originally predicted .

[Marcus_surfer]

light flurry here

[pascalsbongo]

Still got Feb and March to go, don't give up!!!!!!!!!!

Oh no i not given up,but it could be the last time.

Have had a great time and if there is nothing else ,well then im satisfied with what ive had, and anything else is a bonus.

However, after this winter, i shall expect similar next winter, and may well be seriously let down , but thats a long way off.

I would never normally have ventured so far out to find decent snow,but now i have, further trips up the tops of the beacons will be had.

It may shnizzle and drizzle in Swansea, but at least we have some reasonable high ground thats not too far away, which should yield snow in cold, but not so cold as now conditions.

I will be watching the next few days events, but fully expect nothing here in Swansea,and im not just saying that to be negative,i really think this part of the winter for Swansea anyway has ended.

A small amount of lying grey mushy snow tucked behind a non exposed wall ,or the carcass of a long dead snowman is not proper winter for me.

The innards of Frosty the snowman or the above may technically be counted as a snow day,but its rather meaningless to be honest.

Full reset back to green green grass of Wales then reload hopefully.

Edited January 10, 2010 by pascalsbongo

[welshwizard]

SAME HERE

[Bobby]

The medium/longer term outlook from the models is looking increasingly glrim for the continuation of this cold spell... I think it's time to accept the end is now drawing near. It can't last forever after all.

Hopefully we can go out on a bang with big blizzard on Tuesday/Wednesday before normal service is resumed from the Alantic. Then hope for more fun late Jan-Feb.

[welshwizard]

SAME HERE

[Bobby]

A small amount of lying grey mushy snow tucked behind a non exposed wall ,or the carcass of a long dead snowman is not proper winter for me.

The innards of Frosty the snowman or the above may technically be counted as a snow day,but its rather meaningless to be honest.

Full reset back to green green grass of Wales then reload hopefully.

True, if we're going to get a return to wet Alantic weather lets have a big blizzard on Tuesday and then tropical temps to get rid of the snow quickly. Nothing I hate more than cold and slowly rotting snow cover. Depressing.