Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Ukwoody]

benb I agree

woody

[loadsa]

Not being funny, but is that not the last 24hrs? Not sure myself, but if it's not then it's a carbon copy of today!

Could be havent a clue all I know it starts at 15.30

Saying that if you click on the 3hr expected it looks similar to the first 3 hrs of the link

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

I don't know about anyone else - but this weather disappearing into a sad 'milder' versions is like a favourite Aunt having been here for Christmas and finding out she just decided to leave on the next train withou any warning. Strange analogy I know but how some probably feel, me included!!!

Anyway, South Wales now taken off the warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday - still on the coloured graphic, but the wording specifies Mid & North Wales - I think we can describe the current situation the same as the weather the next few days - messy with a lot of grey areas!

JK

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Dont really like the GFS 12Z it brings in milder upper temps still for Soutern parts of Wales and the SW of England:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn482.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn542.png

The front is over us and looking quite heavy on the 12Z:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn544.png

Best really for Mid Wales and The Midlands on this.

The front goes across much of the country by weds:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn604.png

Wont be to happy if it turns out like that i have to say. Will wait for the UKMO 12z now.

[benb]

Could be havent a clue all I know it starts at 15.30

Saying that if you click on the 3hr expected it looks similar to the first 3 hrs of the link

Kinda sounds like my day...

[loadsa]

no you are right

Saying that the clouds in the south west could be heading this way on the 3 hr expected

[DeepSnow]

Not being funny, but is that not the last 24hrs? Not sure myself, but if it's not then it's a carbon copy of today!

Yes i think it is, at the bottom it says reload page every - then drop down bar to chose, but i believe it is over the last 24hour up until now!

Hi Guys,

I don't know about anyone else - but this weather disappearing into a sad 'milder' versions is like a favourite Aunt having been here for Christmas and finding out she just decided to leave on the next train withou any warning. Strange analogy I know but how some probably feel, me included!!!

Anyway, South Wales now taken off the warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday - still on the coloured graphic, but the wording specifies Mid & North Wales - I think we can describe the current situation the same as the weather the next few days - messy with a lot of grey areas!

JK

Where have we been taken off the warnings? met office still have warning for us tue/wed.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wl/wl_forecast_warnings.html

[Ukwoody]

Hi Guys,

Anyway, South Wales now taken off the warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday - still on the coloured graphic, but the wording specifies Mid & North Wales - I think we can describe the current situation the same as the weather the next few days - messy with a lot of grey areas!

JK

no, we'rr still on trhe early warning at the very top of the list.

[loadsa]

Anyway, South Wales now taken off the warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday - still on the coloured graphic, but the wording specifies Mid & North Wales - I think we can describe the current situation the same as the weather the next few days - messy with a lot of grey areas!

Its still there

JK

[nomad098]

I am fairly sure the met have got it right for tues/wed as an atlantic attack is a scenario they have seen before

The question is will the atlantic keep pushing through and give us rain or will it be repeled and give us a good dumping

My wife would rather the former as we will be able to send the kids to school and I favour the latter I just love snow!!!

Having read alot of posts on here over the last 3 weeks it seems to me that of the big ups and downs have been due to timings,

a delay with the wind changing from ne to east or ppn pushing in earlier or later than expected cause quite a change to our weather with the knock on effects changing the set ups

Don't you just love living on an Island that can see such extremes in a year

[benb]

Dont really like the GFS 12Z it brings in milder upper temps still for Soutern parts of Wales and the SW of England:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn482.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn542.png

The front is over us and looking quite heavy on the 12Z:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn544.png

Best really for Mid Wales and The Midlands on this.

The front goes across much of the country by weds:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn604.png

Wont be to happy if it turns out like that i have to say. Will wait for the UKMO 12z now.

If the GFS is to be believed, it looks really dodgy for Tues/Wed and this is a consistently developing trend...

1) Poor (very) 850s

2) That dam line blown miles away

3) Strong SE wind blasting air in sourced from the Atlantic, not really being modified by the continental cold

4) Low heading of NW leaving us in S/SE winds

5) Weakening high not forcing in colder air from the East

If anyone has any charts that show different, please post them!

I suppose the MetO updated their warnings positively today and there's still the feeling that GFS over plays breakdowns. Let's hope so!

Edited January 10, 2010 by benb

[Bobby]

Another big dissapointment, several inches forecast, instead half a centimeter of slush. Bring on the mild tropical SWlys, torrential rain and gales I say. Tuesday/Wednesday looks like a rainfest unless you're on a mountain or further North, or both.

Basically whatever the Met Office say, expect the opposite. BBQ summer, rainfest. Mild winter, coldfest. Snow, no snow. No snow, snow.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Barb-

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

If the GFS is to be believed, it looks really dodgy for Tues/Wed and this is a consistently developing trend...

1) Poor (very) 850s

2) That dam line blown miles away

3) Strong SE wind blasting air in sourced from the Atlantic, not really being modified by the continental cold

4) Low heading of NW leaving us in S/SE winds

5) Weakening high not forcing in colder air from the East

If anyone has any charts that show different, please post them!

I suppose the MetO updated their warnings positively today and there's still the feeling that GFS over plays breakdowns. Let's hope so!

Just looked at the latest NAE...

GFS upper air temps: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs482.gif < @ 48H

Now the NAE for the same time: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/10/basis12/ukuk/t850/10011212_1012.gif

As you can see the NAE has much lower temps for the SW of England + South Wales

And you can see the front moving in: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/10011212_1012.gif

Much better for snow on that.

[Kookylou]

who knows - there are so many variables and after the fuss of today nothing happened. and part of me hopes it will all clear up(but mainly because i have to go to work whatever happens so will be tucked away missing everything!!!)

[benb]

Just looked at the latest NAE...

GFS upper air temps: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs482.gif < @ 48H

Now the NAE for the same time: http://expert.weathe...011212_1012.gif

As you can see the NAE has much lower temps for the SW of England + South Wales

And you can see the front moving in: http://expert.weathe...011212_1012.gif

Much better for snow on that.

Great info- nice one.

Jeez, one of these models is going to get sooo much egg on their face! I'd hate to have to call it for real.

My personal take on this is that most of Wales (south and particuarly the west) will get a couple of hours of heavy wet snow followed quickly by rain, then the cold returning (not like we've had it, but still below average) later in the week.

Have to wait and see!

[CLH the red dragon]

Stunned at the speed of the thaw today. Stunned.

[ourson]

Stunned at the speed of the thaw today. Stunned.

Agree - too quick! Should freeze up again overnight tho

[J10]

To be honest im just looking at all the charts available trying to figure out whats going to happen myself. As we get closer to the timeframe (Tues/Wed) it will become more clear.

We dont want to see milder upper air temperatures otherswise rain/sleet more likely- we want these upper temps to remain as low as possible, and of course we want the front to push over us to ensure we get some snow.

Absolutely and you have said a lot of sense in this thread over the past couple of week(s).

[mrmonopoly]

Guys I have been telling you this will happen for last few days. Its already drizzle here (of the rain variety).

I could see the DAM and HPA being blown north the whole time. IM not an expert but I can read charts.

I predicted mid wales for snow but even thats only for a limited time. The adlantic is a lot stronger than people think it is. You also have to bare in mind this cold snap has out lived most cold snaps in the last 30 years.

There is still plenty of winter left yet a whole 8 weeks or so. Even March can bring heavy snowfall.

There is still plenty of actvity in the arctic and things can and probably will take a turn in Feb.

[J10]

Hi Guys,

I don't know about anyone else - but this weather disappearing into a sad 'milder' versions is like a favourite Aunt having been here for Christmas and finding out she just decided to leave on the next train withou any warning. Strange analogy I know but how some probably feel, me included!!!

Anyway, South Wales now taken off the warnings for Tuesday & Wednesday - still on the coloured graphic, but the wording specifies Mid & North Wales - I think we can describe the current situation the same as the weather the next few days - messy with a lot of grey areas!

JK

Where does it specify Mid and North Wales?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Absolutely and you have said a lot of sense in this thread over the past couple of week(s).

Cheers!

Do you know where i can access the short range ECM details for precipitation, im sure you posted it before but forgot to save it. :lol:

UKMO 12 Updated...

So heres the precipitation charts for Tuesday.

@ 48h

And the upper air temps to go with it:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U48-7.GIF?10-17

Looking very good.

The front comes right over by wednesday and upper temps remain quite low around -1c/-2c for South Wales

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U60-594.GIF?10-17 < precipitation

upper air temps

So really you have GFS vs NAE + UKMO

So now we have to see what the latest fax charts say when they update.

Edit: hopefully links are fixed

Edited January 10, 2010 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[Snowmadsam]

is there any snow on the way for soth west wales tonight??

[J10]

If the GFS is to be believed, it looks really dodgy for Tues/Wed and this is a consistently developing trend...

1) Poor (very) 850s

2) That dam line blown miles away

3) Strong SE wind blasting air in sourced from the Atlantic, not really being modified by the continental cold

4) Low heading of NW leaving us in S/SE winds

5) Weakening high not forcing in colder air from the East

If anyone has any charts that show different, please post them!

I suppose the MetO updated their warnings positively today and there's still the feeling that GFS over plays breakdowns. Let's hope so!

Let's compare the GFS and UKMO.

1. The 850s are not conducive to snow, on the GFS from 9am Tuesday For SW Wales, and from around midnight Tuesday for teh rest of Wales. In comparison the UKMO has 850HPA temps below zero, for all of Wales until midnight Tuesday, and then a small areas right in the centre of the low over SW Wales midday Wednesday. So the UKMO means a largely snow event, and a complete snow event for much of Wales. Hardly surprisingly the NAE tends to agree, with very cold upper until 12H Tuesday, not out beyond this yet.

2. Not that relevant is such situations

3. The winds stays south east on the UKMO but not so much on the GFS whihc goes southerly for a time.

4 and 5. Answered by 3.

So in summary, despite insignificant synoptic differences between GFS and UKMO, whichever happens has a major impact on snowfall amounts into next week.

GFS = Largely non event, UKMO = Major Snow Event for many in line with current Met Office warning.

Which is more likely, I'll let you know after the event.

is there any snow on the way for soth west wales tonight??

Probably Not.

[dingdong]

Stunned at the speed of the thaw today. Stunned.

Hardly any thaw in caerphilly

ghastly ukmo thus evening. Thankfully no support from GME and i'd be suprised if the ECM were to follow

GFS is not as bad as it seems if you read between the lines.

That low hitting Upper air temps of around zero with dew points at or just below zero and running into a very dry continental air feed spells plenty of snow imo though i'd expect back edge rain and sleet for low lying aresa in the far south and west

cheers

Edited January 10, 2010 by dingdong

[CLH the red dragon]

Just to give some views on the "thaw." I ran last Monday, beautiful day, crisp, gorgeous. Super day to be alive. And utterly freezing.

Today, crap, overcast, miserable, thawing. Bitter in the wind.

My recollection is that last Monday was a max of 2 degrees. Today was the same. Whilst the snow is melting this is no mild spell.