Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[madian2]

where is all that wind

NE 1.6km/h

temp 1.7c

very calm here in port talbot

something aint right here we always get wind but i could fa*t more wind

still got the flakes about but not much

[Marcus_surfer]

heavier snow sticking, but just as it starts to stick, it stops

[Ukwoody]

there is still technically a warning out for some of us today, so theorectically some hope, but I'm off to walk the dog in my bikini and sandals...

woody

[DeepSnow]

where is all that wind

NE 1.6km/h

temp 1.7c

very calm here in port talbot

something aint right here we always get wind but i could fa*t more wind

still got the flakes about but not much

Yep there is hardly any wind, or snow, its a bit to warm aswell!! Quite boring atm!! Not looking too good :S

[Marcus_surfer]

Stopped here now! Thats it for us today!

[mrmonopoly]

Yep there is hardly any wind, or snow, its a bit to warm aswell!! Quite boring atm!! Not looking too good :S

GFS strikes again. I think for many of us tommorow and tuesday its going to rain like I have been saying since friday.

According to GFS the cold is not going to return to south wales at all, looking at it saturday is up to 7oC here which is a big change from yesterday.

[J10]

Very light snow here now, and looking at the radar, nothing really set to come this afternoon.

Pity this didn't happen overnight, might well have had a few cms then.

[dyl232]

will this band reach north west wales this afternoon??

[J10]

GFS strikes again. I think for many of us tommorow and tuesday its going to rain like I have been saying since friday.

According to GFS the cold is not going to return to south wales at all, looking at it saturday is up to 7oC here which is a big change from yesterday.

At least it is snowing today, unlike the wintry mix forecast by some yesterday, the settling of light snow in daytime was always an issue.

[bennytes]

very very strange how one minute, there's a warning, then nothing, then a warning, then nothing, then a warning, then when the 'event' turns up, it turns out not to be an event at all!

very strange.

oh well, at least I'll be able to earn next week now. I'd given up hope of earning anything for ages, given the forecasts.

[Jimbob100]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecastsers to now change their minds on this ???

[TonyH]

Continuous very light/ light snow past 3 hours, a very gradual thaw underway, +1.3c, so still very cold (-6c cf Jan average Max).

The minima was yesterday evening was -10.4c, that was the fourth and final one under -10c. The run of 3 ice days has also ended.

Still have virtually intact 4-5 inches on the lawn.

Can't see it getting above average next week either if the Countrytracks forecast comes off. In spite of all the derision the BBC/ MO get on here (and the anti- English/ pseudo-political silliness from certain quarters which is frankly putting me off from contributing here)- the Week ahead forecasts do give a good indication and are usually close to the mark.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Tonyh

[DeepSnow]

GFS strikes again. I think for many of us tommorow and tuesday its going to rain like I have been saying since friday.

According to GFS the cold is not going to return to south wales at all, looking at it saturday is up to 7oC here which is a big change from yesterday.

At all as in the rest of winter? if so i doubt that! Im still hoping feb will be a good month for snow! Also saturday is a long way off, so it will change, but like some have said before, it will get milder at somepoint, thats just what happens here but it will also get colder again. Just a waiting game now!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Deepsnow

[mrmonopoly]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecastsers to now change their minds on this ???

As GFS suggested earlier, the adlantic is going to push in through next week swinging the winds from south (usuall ish direction) pushing the cold air further north across the country. This will significantly increase the upper temps and will stop the easterly we have depended on to keep the cold. This will also increase the ground temp causeing a thaw.

I think the high points will see snow/wet snow for a time, before the air is pushed back. I think that low out to the adlantic was not over estimated like many suggested looking at GFS earlier in the week.

This can still change tho, maybe something magical will happen and GFS will do a sudden U_Turn and that is very possible.

[J10]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecasters to now change their minds on this ???

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/60211-why-is-there-no-snow-today/page__pid__1734002__st__0entry1734002

Good article today from John.

As GFS suggested earlier, the adlantic is going to push in through next week swinging the winds from south (usuall ish direction) pushing the cold air further north across the country. This will significantly increase the upper temps and will stop the easterly we have depended on to keep the cold. This will also increase the ground temp causeing a thaw.

I think the high points will see snow/wet snow for a time, before the air is pushed back. I think that low out to the adlantic was not over estimated like many suggested looking at GFS earlier in the week.

This can still change tho, maybe something magical will happen and GFS will do a sudden U_Turn and that is very possible.

It is the Atlantic Ocean. If the GFS verifies then your analysis is not far off, but if the UKMO is right, then snow is far more likely, and that is why BBC forecasts heavy snow for many.

[Jimbob100]

http://forum.netweat...0entry1734002

Good article today from John.

It is the Atlantic Ocean. If the GFS verifies then your analysis is not far off, but if the UKMO is right, then snow is far more likely, and that is why BBC forecasts heavy snow for many.

Thanks for that

[keithlucky]

We still all downbeat? light snow that was forecaste came, Tuesday wednesday snow not going further north than swales ,you can all then gloat because we will have snow while rest of uk dry.

[benb]

Can anyone advise as to what has been the main significant change for the forecastsers to now change their minds on this ???

I think we'll find the models have been quite accurate about conditions today- light/moderate snow across much of Wales for much of the day.

I think the problems have been two-fold:

1) MetO interpretation affected by general public/media panic regarding this cold spell

and

2) It's a little warmer than forecast. The air from the East, despite having v cold 850s seems to be much warmer at the surface than expected. The idea floated that we have an impenatrable block of cold air on us that is resistant to 'attack' is, in this situation, somewhat misleading. It is being slowly eroded and this may well have further effect on Tuesday's 'event'.

2.0c now. Continued light/mod snow.

[Jimbob100]

Cheers for the explanation......

As i put in a previous note, really nowcasting is the most accurate as things change so quickly as this has proved.......

[Cymro]

I don't like this thaw at all, its graduall but fairly rapid :/.

Any snow to come tonight?

Edited January 10, 2010 by adamjones416

[derrylynne]

No thaw here with the temperature hovering around freezing and a minus dew point. I see the meto have issued an alert for Cardiff and parts of South Wales. I am sure they don't quite know what is going to happen, and in this situation it could be anything. Quite a miserable day out really with bits of snow and feeling very cold because the air is more humid...

[J10]

I don't like this thaw at all, its graduall but fairly rapid :/.

Any snow to come tonight?

The models are forecasting heavier snow for Eastern areas tonight, but nowcasting suggest this is less likely

Although a dusting is still possible, eyes look South West For Tuesday.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

[Cymro]

The models are forecasting heavier snow for Eastern areas tonight, but nowcasting suggest this is less likely

Although a dusting is still possible, eyes look South West For Tuesday.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Well a dusting on top of what weve got is still extremely poor in my books.

[Ukwoody]

I missed the met expending the snow forcast for monday. It now covers the whole of wales (i think).

as someone said, all rather confusing. it has howevr been snowing here for 5 hours now, but nothing really laid.

woody

[Jimbob100]

I missed the met expending the snow forcast for monday. It now covers the whole of wales (i think).

as someone said, all rather confusing. it has howevr been snowing here for 5 hours now, but nothing really laid.

woody

New Warnings on the MO website ---->

Heavy Snow1200 Tue 120600 Wed 13There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southwest England and South Wales.

A band of heavy snow will move slowly northeast during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before dying out. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are expected widely, with 10 to 20cm possible locally, and a low risk of up to 30cm over higher ground. The strengthening southeasterly wind is also likely to lead to drifting of snow.

This could cause disruption to travel networks and lead to problems with power lines.

Issued at: 1358 Sun 10 Jan

Trouble is - Don't know whether to believe this now.........................