3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 5

[bluearmy]

as the sea feed gets shorter, so the dp's and temps will drop. of course, as Dave says, we need some precip. unfortunately for us, either the low hasnt deepened to our south or the high to our north hasnt squeezed south becasue the winds are much lighter than expected. i imagine thats where where the issues with todays forecast really lie. he precip forecast for the sw on ecm;s charts for the past 5 days is there. our convective stuff in association with the upper warm front isnt. i'm sure the weaker flow is responsible.

[janetmh71]

We have a very very light sleet/snow mixture falling at the moment

[bluearmy]

What a let down today after all the hype of yesterday: NOWCAST : Overcast, temp . +2c brisk wind from the e/ne. some fakes of snow and snizzle at times. Melting roofs, cars now all melting. Outlook : I think its all over winds as I said last week are going to go to a south easterly and later in the week to a more southerly, which will bring temps back to around normal for this time of year.

i think you'll find the southerly a lot colder than this north easterly. the north sea is +6c, the continent is subzero.

[TEITS]

The reason for the falling temps is because very slowly we're pulling in a flow off the continent rather than the N Sea. This is why im appalled at the BBC saying temps will rise over the next few days. Even with warmer upper temps a flow from the SE will be colder due to the snow cover across the continent and the much lower dewpoints.

For Mon/Tue/Wed I wouldn't expect max temps much higher than 1C.

[lizzieloo202]

Yes but the strengthing Easterly will create convection in the North Sea and this may pep up the band as it moves towards EA

Lovely

[Snowangel-MK]

Melting roofs, cars now all melting.

Blimy, where are you from it must be hot there ? (lol)

I know what you mean really, I'm only teasing, you mean the snow is melting

Edited January 10, 2010 by MKsnowangel

[Country Boy]

Blue Army: Its the upper air thats getting warmer .What needs to happen is the high to move North again to let the Easterly flow back. Only what I make of it but I think its another 10 days away before this migh happen

[bluearmy]

The reason for the falling temps is because very slowly we're pulling in a flow off the continent rather than the N Sea. This is why im appalled at the BBC saying temps will rise over the next few days. Even with warmer upper temps a flow from the SE will be colder due to the snow cover across the continent and the much lower dewpoints.

For Mon/Tue/Wed I wouldn't expect max temps much higher than 1C.

you ae so right dave - also ahead of the trough, the wind will be perishing. it doesnt have to get near us to deliver that wind.

the snow leaving holland looks to have another 3 to 4 hours before it gets to us. what are the chances it will survive that trip intact?? lets hope for some convection before that.

[ribster]

What a let down today after all the hype of yesterday: NOWCAST : Overcast, temp . +2c brisk wind from the e/ne. some fakes of snow and snizzle at times. Melting roofs, cars now all melting. Outlook : I think its all over winds as I said last week are going to go to a south easterly and later in the week to a more southerly, which will bring temps back to around normal for this time of year. The high is moving to the East as a low pressure system trys to move in, its only in to the second week that we have a chance of it moving north again, but this is a long way off.

Look at this link which confirms my forecast:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_850_9panel_eur.html

While it was a mix of light rain/sleet/snow overnight, in fact sleeting as I type this. But temps back to normal? Get real, normal would be 6/7c, it isn't going to be anywhere near that, its going to stay well below average at around 2c.

All over? You mean this outstandingly cold and snowy spell we have been treated to, then maybe yes. But in terms of it staying cold, certainly not. Absolutely no sign of double digits that we have been used to in recent history, as I said looks to be staying below average for the foreseeable.

Edited January 10, 2010 by ribster

[bluearmy]

Blue Army: Its the upper air thats getting warmer .What needs to happen is the high to move North again to let the Easterly flow back. Only what I make of it but I think its another 10 days away before this migh happen

but Gaz, we dont live at several thousand feet up!!! trust me forget the uppers with a continental flow.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Blimy, where are you from it must be hot there ? (lol)

I know what you mean really, I'm only teasing, you mean the snow is melting

Has any one taken a look outside recently? I'm in Hertfordshire this afternoon (just outside Stevenage) and erm - it's snowing. Very fine but quite a moderate flow with larger flakes interspersed. Not showing up on any of the radars.

ffO.

[Country Boy]

MK: We have had the most snow in this region with 22cm on the ground and I can see a 3 foot snow drift from my window, but with a +2 temp it melting quite fast.

But the BBC. have got it wrong today as they are saying rain on the coast, but we still have light flakes falling.

[Jason T]

I think the next 4 hours we will all have a much better idea, mass confusion over the current weather,only because the predictable is unpredictable. There is a thaw happening here AL37JE but we still have a good cover of 3 to 5 inches in places, and in blanket form, gutters and roof tops dripping away though.

[Snowangel-MK]

Has any one taken a look outside recently? I'm in Hertfordshire this afternoon (just outside Stevenage) and erm - it's snowing. Very fine but quite a moderate flow with larger flakes interspersed. Not showing up on any of the radars.

ffO.

Yes, I've just come in from feeding my animals, 10 minutes of snizzle while I was outside and much colder than it was earlier.

[lizzieloo202]

Are things looking up? (were they ever actually looking down?)

Temp still falling here

Edited January 10, 2010 by lizzieloo202

[leighlast]

It's been snowing lightly here in West Suffolk on and off for most of the last 4/5 hours. Seems to be coming out of nowhere!

Temperatures stable at 1.4c.

Edited January 10, 2010 by leighlast

[Iceni]

While it was a mix of light rain/sleet/snow overnight, in fact sleeting as I type this. But temps back to normal? Get real, normal would be 6/7c, it isn't going to be anywhere near that, its going to stay well below average at around 2c.

I'm wondering whether (inland) we might not do a bit better for snow with slightly higher temperatures? My mother's saying "It's too cold for snow" comes to mind. Wouldn't there be more humidity around which might pep up the precipitation?

It's felt as dry as a bone for the last few days in a sort of freeze-dried way.

[Country Boy]

Blue army: Most charts are now showing a shift to a more southerly flow. Read this I have found from another site

Temperatures are expected to remain below average during the second half of the week with an ongoing risk of further rain, sleet or snow in many areas. Although it will probably be cold at ground level, temperatures several thousand metres above the ground will be slowly rising, and this will increase the chance of precipitation falling as rain or sleet rather than snow. The weather next week may well turn increasingly dull too. This will help to keep daytime temperatures low, but also will act as a blanket overnight probably preventing the severe frosts which have been a feature of the weather during recent days.

[Snowangel-MK]

But the BBC. have got it wrong today

Not just today

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite unexpectedly, snow is getting heavier and less sleety in Norwich- if temperatures fall a bit more, this could start to settle again.

[Hammer]

Temp just above freezing here and dew points -2. Very light snowfall from time to time, monitoring the flow and it is slowly becoming more favourable. From about 3pm onwards today through early hours of Monday it is about the most favourable.

[ribster]

Blue army: Most charts are now showing a shift to a more southerly flow. Read this I have found from another site

Temperatures are expected to remain below average during the second half of the week with an ongoing risk of further rain, sleet or snow in many areas. Although it will probably be cold at ground level, temperatures several thousand metres above the ground will be slowly rising, and this will increase the chance of precipitation falling as rain or sleet rather than snow. The weather next week may well turn increasingly dull too. This will help to keep daytime temperatures low, but also will act as a blanket overnight probably preventing the severe frosts which have been a feature of the weather during recent days.

And as the BBC forecast said on country tracks, the Southerly flow will still be cold, you've also acknowledged that it will be below average. It also says that it will prevent 'severe' frosts, not frosts per se. The bottom line is it will be less cold (not mild), simple as that.

As for what happens further down the line, absolutely no one has a clue at the moment.

Edited January 10, 2010 by ribster

[Macey]

Dew point has dropped for 1*C to 0*C in my area recently. Temp drops slightly to 1.2*C, but wind chill has significantly changed - from -8*C to 1*C Though that could be the fact the wind has dropped slightly.

[Jason T]

ok snow flurrie getting bigger and heavier here in al3 temp dropped alot aswell in the last hour.

[Country Boy]

I agree ribster. But we really need to see the high move back north as its this high thats brought us all the fun..