London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[flysurfer]

biting cold wind today here in dover.......

[thevalley]

Has not gone much above freezing today in Biggin Hill. currently just below freezing-Heavy frost expected tonight then some snow over high ground (Thurs/Friday ) and beyond could be very exciting. :unsure:

[Shutterbug Netty]

Chilly here too today. The highest the temp has got is 2.2 with a dew point of -2.9 :unsure:

Lovely bright sunshine though which is so nice after days of dull grey weather.

[ZONE 51]

latest outputs snow friday evening - eastern england!

should give a covering in most places. looks like rain thrs night

[Discombobulation Man]

It's been a carrot on string chasing the cold and snow in FI these last 2 weeks but it does look like we'll definitely see the chance of something exciting happening by the time we get to the weekend.

I'm probably being spoilt but if the 'stonker' of a GFS 12z run comes off then unfortunately for most of us in this region we'll be stuck with a NW'ly flow from Friday afternoon onwards, so we can forget about any shower activity in the North Sea coming our way.

With very long, dry land tracks we'll be clinging most of our snow hopes on waiting for troughs to come down in the flow.

Don't wanna be greedy but if we get the cold nailed in for a while then I wanna see some big upgrades to the PPN for our region, cold and dry doesn't bring out the sledges and champagne like snow does.

. . . err BTW if the GFS 12z verified the NE tip of Norfolk would get absolutely hammered

edit: Friday defo looks good at the mo

Edited January 26, 2010 by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

[ZONE 51]

surrey next couple wks.

also looking increasingly likely for snow friday evening

[flysurfer]

wow what a superb sun set.........

[wee]

Hi guys,can anyone tell me if this comes off on Friday will Brighton get any snow? and if so what time do you think it will happen? Sorry i know its a lot to ask but come on Guys give me your predicitions lol,i need to decide what to wear on friday night or maybe not go out at all ?

[Shutterbug Netty]

wow what a superb sun set.........

Exactly what I was about to say! Absolutely beautiful here

[ZONE 51]

fantastic sunset would like some more of those , do miss clear blue winter days .

Hi guys,can anyone tell me if this comes off on Friday will Brighton get any snow? and if so what time do you think it will happen? Sorry i know its a lot to ask but come on Guys give me your predicitions lol,i need to decide what to wear on friday night or maybe not go out at all ?

best to wait nearer the time as things change, but at this point it does look very cold with possible snow near or on s coast.

[wee]

fantastic sunset would like some more of those , do miss clear blue winter days .

best to wait nearer the time as things change, but at this point it does look very cold with possible snow near or on s coast.

Thanks,for the reply,i will keep reading all your posts to keep myself informed nearer the time lol,fingers crossed we get a good dumping but on the other hand am looking forward to a night out as the last night out was cancelled due to the snow lol.

[thegreat316]

IF the 12Z run of the GFS and ECM from this evening come off then this forum will get busy!!! all i can say wow!

when will the mods move up the regional threads? should be busy from this wekend and beyond T+300

[asnowyclassic]

Look East - evening programme - said significant snowfall for thursday evening. a bit of a shock that!!!!

[Shutterbug Netty]

Oh dear, was hoping Steve M would be back by now, I love his posts!!

Paul S, Leigh Shrimper, MAF.... any of you care to comment on what's coming up?

(Not that I think anyone else is any less credible, just that I look out for these guys posts! Don't want to upset anyone!)

[yamkin]

Oh dear, was hoping Steve M would be back by now, I love his posts!!

Paul S, Leigh Shrimper, MAF.... any of you care to comment on what's coming up?

(Not that I think anyone else is any less credible, just that I look out for these guys posts! Don't want to upset anyone!)

I have emailed Steve Murr asking if he is ok and that many are missing him. Let's hope he returns to both 'Netweather' & 'TWO' forums very soon.

[Shutterbug Netty]

I have emailed Steve Murr asking if he is ok and that many are missing him. Let's hope he returns to both 'Netweather' & 'TWO' forums very soon.

Thanks for that Yamkin! I hope he comes back soon..... it's just not the same without him!

Any thoughts from you on the upcoming 'cold spell'? I am trying really hard to learn by using the learners section here and reading the model thread but everything seems to be moving so fast!!

[yamkin]

Thanks for that Yamkin! I hope he comes back soon..... it's just not the same without him!

Any thoughts from you on the upcoming 'cold spell'? I am trying really hard to learn by using the learners section here and reading the model thread but everything seems to be moving so fast!!:lol:

To start with, the 'TWO' home page says it all, 'Big Freeze likely For February' :lol:

Possible snow days

Edited January 26, 2010 by yamkin

[Shutterbug Netty]

Thanks for the reply Yamkin...... lets hope those charts come off!!!!

Ooh, I'm just soo excited!! :lol:

Sorry I'll calm down now!

[Don]

To start with, the 'TWO' home page says it all, 'Big Freeze likely For February' :lol:

Possible snow days

I hope the latest TWO homepage update hasn't cursed the possible looming cold spell!

:lol:

Edited January 26, 2010 by Don

[Snow Queen one]

I also emailed Steve but have had no reply yet did it two days ago still waiting i hope he comes back soon. Is this cold spell going to be worse or similar to the Jan one? Does anyone know?

[yamkin]

I also emailed Steve but have had no reply yet did it two days ago still waiting i hope he comes back soon. Is this cold spell going to be worse or similar to the Jan one? Does anyone know?

If we get a good cold feed from the East, we could be looking at the Big Freeze Part 3 :lol:

I hope the latest TWO homepage update hasn't cursed the possible looming cold spell!

:lol:

No curse by 'TWO' as they had a similar heading with the other very cold periods. :lol:

[SMU]

I will post some thoughts tonight- but they wont be on until 2/3am...

thanks for the emails & the messages - I am currently working X2 jobs- one normal day job + building up a business in another retail sector- which is really tiring-

Cheers

Steve

[final dest]

Looking increasingly likely we will see snow come friday.

BBC even mentioning friday.

Fingers crossed

[Snow Queen one]

I will post some thoughts tonight- but they wont be on until 2/3am...

thanks for the emails & the messages - I am currently working X2 jobs- one normal day job + building up a business in another retail sector- which is really tiring-

Cheers

Steve

Good to see you back Steve. good luck with the two jobs and i hope the snow will not hinder you too much lol :crazy:

[SMU]

Downstream favourable 500mb Heights promote Easterly for NW europe in the 150-200 timeframe- however will upstream signal play ball????

GFS to fast & Southeast on American System means the evolution for the midterm of 150-180 is to far South & East for NW europe-

ECM looks to resolve the energy better & pulls shortwave energy further North towards the coast- meaning the evolution is a long way further NW over Europe-

What am I talking about I hear you ask???????

The fate of our Easterly ( The Easterly reload after the Northerly) is being driven by energy from the Subtropical jet all the way back the SW portion of the US-

Energy arriving in the SW portion of the US under the ridge at T72 Alligns with a Very cold parcel of artic air pushing south out of canada at the same time, the convergence zone will see a shortwave develop-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi5.72hr.png - See the jet energy coming into the SW of the US & the northern energy moving directly South through the central Plains ( strong + PNA pattern )

See the Shortwave develop at 72 ish-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-84.png?18

The model bias of the GFS generally pushes southern Stream energy to far out & to fast/to far east in the 72 + 96 timeframes ( subsequent runs SHOULD pull it back west & North)- Obviously after which along the 120 + 144 timeframe if the track is ejected into the atlantic at a point a long way further SE then the subsequent atlantic ridging that is building Northwards will be forced in a NE Direction at a lower Latitude-

Hence the GFS arriving at a ridge over the UK at around T 180-also at this stage so is the ensemble mean- notice how the ensemble 850 profiles are dropping back now over the last 24 hours - this is a result if the gfs beginning the see & resolve the pacific energy & speed at 72 + 96

If its resolving the energy wrong over the states though & the energy is tighter & generating more of a ridge ahread of it then its track will carve a more Northward path up through the SE part of the states & exit say the Central / Eastern part of the coast rather than the SE- this track then dictates that the ridging in the Atlantic can be more alligned South North & at more of a North Westerly locale-

If the jet energy is more orientated towards South North across to Western Greenland then the it will have a sharp gradient coming back North South through iceland - the resulting pattern is that the ridge can migrate towards Iceland then fill the void of low heights to heigher heights in the Svalbard region-

This is at a TIMELY point in this current winter to see such a devlopment in terms of pattern retrogression because the zonal wind anomaly & 50/60N observations are dropping almost into negative territory- meaning that any shortwave system traversing lattitudes across 35N to 60N in the atlantic will have less EASTERLY force acting on them- so the recurve that usually happens when we get close to the GIN coridoor will be less prominent & SHOULD allow for ridging to extend further North than usual, because the downstream flow is also convoluted then this has every chance for allowing a pattern to develop that backs the cold westwards ALL the way to the UK, as opposed to just holding it to our east-

The next 5 days & pattern development will make or break our Febuary CET- if that shortwave over the states holds up slower & further north at T90 odd ( compare run V run in terms of location) then the chance of a below 1c 1st-14th CET is high, if it does eject faster which I think is unlikely ( & the 18z GFS is wrong) then we could be quids in-

Probability of an Easterly Outbreak in 8-10 days ~ 70%

Steve