Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Ian Fergusson]

I knew they would put out an advisory - laughable really - although there is the possibility of some snow showers for Shrops running into the West Midlands county and probably Worcs/Hereford.

Might be helpful referring to the modified NAE fields compared to the raw output - these offer sufficient reasoning behind the UKMO advisory. I should stress ice risk is really the broader issue, as opposed to snow accumulations per se (albeit mention of snow tends to draw rather myopic attention / hyperventilation, rather than the ice!)

See a grab of latest modified NAE fields at http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson

Cheers

Ian

[Costa Del Fal]

Might be helpful referring to the modified NAE fields compared to the raw output - these offer sufficient reasoning behind the UKMO advisory. I should stress ice risk is really the broader issue, as opposed to snow accumulations per se (albeit mention of snow tends to draw rather myopic attention / hyperventilation, rather than the ice!)

See a grab of latest modified NAE fields at http://bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson

Cheers

Ian

Ooo hello Ian, i regularly read your blog, fantastic they are too. :blink:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I reckon a possibility early tomorrow of a few snow showers, the most unbelievable thing is for wednesday 6°C and heavy snow! I have no excitement at all for wednesday, dreading it infact for all the rain

[BlueHedgehog074]

So will it be a Snowday tommorrow, or a Sunday tommorrow?

One thing for sure is that the snow shield my loose its power next morning with those string of mighty snow showers cracking it in places.

Netweather, BBC and The Met Office sure seem positive about the weakening of the snow barrier tommorrow.

I suppose what we need, though, is for one snow shower to first weaken the shield, and then another wintry shower to make gaps in it. Unless the snow barrier is so strong that it would need four snow showers to break it.

Should you really be unlucky and have a super super thick snow shield around you, then I guess the snow showers will have to retreat and come back another day bringing along it's beastly brothers/sisters.

Where do I think the snow shield is likely to break? - anywhere really, especially Leceistershire and to the west side of the Midlands.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Costa Del Fal]

Showers begining to develop to the NW now out in the Irish sea.

[conor123]

Fully prepared for a night of snow showers dodging 10 miles west then 10 miles east as it's been the case all winter so far though id like to be proven wrong.

[Costa Del Fal]

Fully prepared for a night of snow showers dodging 10 miles west then 10 miles east as it's been the case all winter so far though id like to be proven wrong.

You wont help yourself if your going to be pessimistic!

Main chance of snow showers for us will be between about 6am-3pm tomorrow With a peak around 10-1pm i would say.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You wont help yourself if your going to be pessimistic!

Main chance of snow showers for us will be between about 6am-3pm tomorrow With a peak around 10-1pm i would say.

yeah but seems to be mainly southern areas of the west midlands, I cant believe the models, mild february coming up just hope its dry

[Costa Del Fal]

Oh dear everyone is going nuts over one or two mild runs from the ECM and UKMO.

There is so much potential that could easily come our way. Tbh the over reaction by so many people is getting on my nerves and is pointless. We have had a great January. If February is a bit pants then im not worrying becuse not only March/April can hold some snow potential, the prospects of spring and summer are not too far away. :lol:

Edited January 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

Snow shower possibilties tonight for Western and Southern Shrops and perhaps parts of the Wst Mids county and Worcs.

Much of the region could see some snow showers except for perhaps the eastern most parts of the region so Eastern Staffordshire and Warwickshire.

[Costa Del Fal]

Here is my view on things for tomorrow:

Shouldnt be too far of the mark i hope.

Edited January 30, 2010 by Blizzards

[conor123]

And the snow dome (aka lets slide everything good 5 miles west and east) has powered up for it's night shift.

2050: Radar update shows the gap very clearly now heading here, now looks like we won't even get clipped by that shower to the west

Edited January 30, 2010 by conor123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Here is my view on things for tomorrow:

Shouldnt be too far of the mark i hope.

Damn too far off this mark though!

[Costa Del Fal]

Damn too far off this mark though!

As with the nature of showers, any snow depths even though small will vary widely. Showers are developing nicely along the North Wales Coast aswell as around the Coast near Cheshire/Liverpool way.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like the 1st shower will already be hitting here shortly.

[laheymichele]

snowing here!!!!!!get in!!!!!!!!!

[conor123]

Managed to get clipped by that snow shower in the end though 5 minutes down the road got nothing

Temperature back around freezing now after falling to -2.8c earlier.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Those snow showers do seem to be reaching some of the most western areas already - just hope they have enough power to reach here. In one piece (before starting to break up into microscopic blobs).

[cold stoke]

snowing here!!!!!!get in!!!!!!!!!

no snow here kidsgrove

[Costa Del Fal]

Clouds moving in ahead of the first snow shower here.

[Bolton67]

Clouds moving in ahead of the first snow shower here.

Clouds here in Northants, does not mean it will snow.

[Costa Del Fal]

Clouds here in Northants, does not mean it will snow.

But there are showers heading in this way with a shower just to our NW. Of course clouds dont always mean snow...lol.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Clouds here in Northants, does not mean it will snow.

But the radar does lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

clouds to my NW but may miss, hear snow from stoke way

18Z temporary relief sticks to 12Z gfs outcome, but must not be disappointed when the 00Z shows raging SW'LYs along with ecm and ukmo

[laheymichele]

no snow here kidsgrove

yes a covering here in tunstall which ain't far from you,stopped now though.