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Virtual Chases 2010


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Three tornado reports from the storm(s) west of Amarillo last night, I guess being isolated compared to those NE of Lubbock meant that it was more likely to drop with less interaction form other storms, always a good rule to get on discrete cells:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

Another reasonable tornado potential today for NW TX and Wern OK I think, may even go moderate today ... though most likely for hail probabilities ... going to be some big hailers.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Nick

Those Reports were from Tuesday Evening Near Bushland

Last night only yielded 1 Tornado and that was the La Junta Cell you pointed out with the Hook Echo last night

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Wow Today is a very tough Call! Assuming we would have ended the day in AMA Yesterday today I can see 2 areas that look very good for Supercells and both could yeild Tornadoes.

My 1st Target would be a jaunt down towards Childress on the 287 and hang around down there awaiting to see how the earlier Convection and clearing goes, certainly a good chance of Rotating Supercells in the 00z to 03z Timeframe.

2nd Target would take me up towards Limon (CO) As this area also looks great for some Tornadoes today from Upslope flow and better looking backed winds.

Quite glad we are out next week now :aggressive: Because I would be waking up hoping the Models would have a better grip on the situation before we pulled the trigger to go North West or South East.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CDT THU APR 22 2010

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO

PORTIONS CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL OK AND SRN KS....

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF MAIN

BODY OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE

NOW CENTERED OVER SRN NV. SEVERAL VORTICITY LOBES AND ACCOMPANYING

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ORBIT THIS CIRCULATION AS IT

MOVES SLOWLY EWD THROUGH PERIOD...ITS CENTROID CROSSING NRN AZ

DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. ONE OF THOSE

SHORTWAVES...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN CA

COASTAL WATERS...IS FCST TO PIVOT THROUGH CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATH

ACROSS NERN MEX BY 23/00Z THEN ACROSS NM TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY

END OF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE MAY EVOLVE INTO SEPARATE/SECONDARY

CYCLONE CENTER OVER ERN CO BY END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT

WEAKER/INITIALLY EJECTING PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT ATTM INVOF NERN

BAJA -- SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NM BY 22/18Z THEN OVER ERN

CO DURING DAY.

AT SFC...CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER ERN CO THROUGH MUCH OF

DAY...WITH WARM FRONT ESEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KS. BY MID-LATE

AFTERNOON..EXPECT DRYLINE OVER SWRN KS TO E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO

NRN COAHUILA. LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT -- NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH PLUME

OF DEEP LIFT PRECEDING MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- WILL CROSS MOST IF NOT

ALL OF NM BY 23/00Z THEN OVER PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK AND W-CENTRAL

TX OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FROM W TX TO WRN KS AND NERN CO...WITH AT

THESE THREE PRIMARY EPISODES POSSIBLE...

1. ONGOING AT 22/12Z THROUGH LATE MORNING...AS EWD EXTENSION OF

EWD-SHIFTING REGIME OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND INCREASING CONVECTION

ALREADY EVIDENT ATTM OVER PORTIONS NM.

2. DEVELOPMENT INVOF DRYLINE BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD ACTIVITY...WHICH

ITSELF MAY BE SPORADIC PROCESS THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING

GIVEN EXPECTED WEAKNESS OF CINH IN MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR.

3. BAND OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS PROBABLE DURING LATTER HALF OF

PERIOD...MOVING EWD/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX AND

WRN/CENTRAL OK.

IN ADDITION...BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL

AID CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES

OVER NERN CO GIVEN SUFFICIENT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BEHIND EARLY

ACTIVITY. FARTHER SSE...WITHIN BROAD CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

PLUME...ONE OR TWO RATHER FOCUSED/MESOBETA-SCALE AREAS FOR

SUPERCELLS...SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY MESSY NATURE OF THIS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY

EARLY IN PERIOD...CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTM ON WHERE THOSE

FOCI WILL SET UP. THEREFORE...IT STILL IS TOO SOON TO ASSIGN

PROBABILITIES AOA CATEGORICAL MDT-RISK CRITERIA.

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AWAY FROM EXCESSIVELY STABILIZING CONVECTIVE

INFLUENCES REASONABLY SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES...VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS AND

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. WHERE THIS AIR MASS CAN BE HEATED

ON A SUSTAINED/ROBUST BASIS BEHIND EARLY-PERIOD

CONVECTION...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTED

BY 50S DEW POINTS OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AND 60S FROM WRN OK SWD.

EXPECT WHAT MAY BE TERMED A TOP-HEAVY BUOYANT PROFILE...WITH LARGE

PERCENTAGE OF CAPE ABOVE 500 MB. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH BACKED SFC WINDS UNDER MORE MERIDIONAL

FLOW OVER WRN CO/WRN KS...AND MORE CLASSICAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT

ACROSS PANHANDLES SWD OVER W-CENTRAL TX. EFFECTIVE SHEAR 45-55 KT

AND 0-1 KM SRH 100-200 J/KG SHOULD BE COMMON.

THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO MIXTURE OF WIND/HAIL AS MORE LINEAR MODE

BEGINS TO DOMINATE THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS...AND PRIMARY ZONE OF

ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND

WRN/NRN TX.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

SPC have upped the nado probs to 10% on the 13z outlook earlier, I am going with Paul's target choice of Childress, good position to move all points N, S, E and W then follow over the Red River into SW OK if need be - though storms may get going along the cap rock intially so could stay chasing in NW TX.

post-1052-12719524446356_thumb.gif

...PARTS OF WRN AND N CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK...

CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND

THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT MOVES

NEWD INTO WRN OK. IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...SOME DECREASE IN

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PERMIT REGIONS OF AFTERNOON

HEATING TO DEVELOP...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE

75-80F RANGE. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 60-65F EAST OF THE DRY

LINE...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE

OF 1500-2000 J/KG.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ALONG/EAST OF THE DRY LINE...WITH HIGH RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE

INDICATING SEVERAL BANDS OF SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FORMING.

THE INITIAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX

PANHANDLE BEFORE THEY MOVE INTO WRN OK...FOLLOWED BY A MORE

EXTENSIVE BAND OF STORMS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE

SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP

LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL GENERATION...ESPECIALLY

WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM INITIALLY...AND THE COMBINATION

OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL RESULT

IN A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL

AND TORNADOES.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I am going to plump for Clarendon, TX for some action :)

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Would have to go for Childress as the guy's as this place gets regularly hammered. :)

just past Cap Rock

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

One things for sure the Car Park at the Kettle Rest is going to be Packed with Chasers and their Light Bars in about 3hrs time :)

Should be some Great Streams tonight to follow as everyone is picking this area it seems

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

One things for sure the Car Park at the Kettle Rest is going to be Packed with Chasers and their Light Bars in about 3hrs time :D

Should be some Great Streams tonight to follow as everyone is picking this area it seems

Paul S

then after the show down, off to the Mexican's for burito's..lol :)

Edited by dogs32
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One things for sure the Car Park at the Kettle Rest is going to be Packed with Chasers and their Light Bars in about 3hrs time rofl.gif

Should be some Great Streams tonight to follow as everyone is picking this area it seems

Paul S

Hi Paul ya i agree. Weather radio reports there will be baseball size hail with these storms today.

Weather Radio Link

Danny

Edited by Danny Watson
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Hi Paul ya i agree. Weather radio reports there will be baseball size hail with these storms today.

http://www.wundergro...d=WA9V|645|1796

Danny

Lol

Yep I would expect a few windscreens to come a cropper this evening :)

Pat no time for a Mexican tonight. After the Chasing of Supercells along the Dryline - The CF Will overtake the Dryline and force a Squall Line Eastwards for Round 2 - This could also have Large Hail and Embedded Tornadoes. No rest for the wicked. Pizza in a Field with F5.6 On the Camera

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Lol

Yep I would expect a few windscreens to come a cropper this evening :shok:

Pat no time for a Mexican tonight. After the Chasing of Supercells along the Dryline - The CF Will overtake the Dryline and force a Squall Line Eastwards for Round 2 - This could also have Large Hail and Embedded Tornadoes. No rest for the wicked. Pizza in a Field with F5.6 On the Camera

so Plainview 2 lol

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

The 1630z update shows a hatched area in the 10% tornado prob area which is a 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

post-1052-12719561360262_thumb.gif

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STRONG MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD

THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AS AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATES AROUND THE

LOW /FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA/ AND EJECTS NEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH

PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPENING OF THE LEE CYCLONE NOW IN SE CO. S/SE OF

THE LEE CYCLONE...THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EXTREME SE CO/SW KS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX

PANHANDLE TO W CENTRAL TX. OVERNIGHT...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT /NOW IN

CENTRAL NM/ WILL SURGE EWD WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND

OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND W TX.

A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ELEVATED

CONVECTION N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO E CENTRAL/SE KS. FARTHER

W/SW...THE WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER SW KS AND SW OK/NW TX

WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK LEAD

SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THIS

CONVECTION AS STRATUS CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE FROM W TO E...WHILE

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 60-65 F SPREAD NWD FROM CENTRAL/NW TX

TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK /56-60 F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED

FARTHER NW INTO KS/. 12Z OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL

REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE RANGING FROM

1500 J/KG IN WRN KS TO 2500 J/KG NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER. AT LEAST

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL TX

PANHANDLE/SW KS DRYLINE BY ABOUT 21-22Z. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL

SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY.

THE PRIMARY INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL

WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES

FARTHER N ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND

CROSS THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

TOWARD EVENING ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK AS LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AND THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. ANY SURVIVING

DISCRETE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO

PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO NEAR SUNSET /OR JUST AFTER/ AS

SRH INCREASES AND INSTABILITY REMAINS BASED AT THE SURFACE WITH

RELATIVELY SMALL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

10% hatched now for Tornadoes. Kinda expected a bump to 15% as I don't see much wrong with this setup at all, The 2 area's I'd go would be either the Red River Valley, (i.e. Childress) or perhaps up towards the OK Panhandle - Beaver,OK towards Liberal, KS. The windfields up there are amazing, but prefer the Thermodynamics down south and whilst not as crazy as up north, they should be ample to get things done! I'd probably start north of Childress hooever to keep my options open. Should be easy enough to drop south and pick up any storms as they race towards you. My start location is going to be Wellington, Texas.

Edit:

Looking at the newest RUC, it has the southern area bullseyed at 0z in an area from Quanah East to Vernon, and anywhere south of that line up to 40 miles (towards Seymour and Benjamin). Not that other areas aren't going to be under the gun either. Think things should get going earlier than 0z so a little west of there looks perfect.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Must be so close to going Moderate Nick.

I wonder if the 20z Update will make it a Moderate Risk

Best set-up of the year to date!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

:rofl::shok:

SWODY2 MODERATE RISK On the 1730z Update For Tomorrow

post-24-12719596549692_thumb.gif

CORRECTED TO ADD WRN MS INTO THE MDT RISK HEADLINE

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON

INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND NRN LA...

...THE START OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

Looks like the Tornado Season is only just beginning

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Must be so close to going Moderate Nick.

I wonder if the 20z Update will make it a Moderate Risk

Best set-up of the year to date!

Seem to be cautious SPC this year and holding back. Definately going to be a good night to watch it unfold.

Meso hinting that at Tornado watch is imminent across Wern KS and Ern CO:

post-1052-12719599135792_thumb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221752Z - 221845Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO

INTO WRN KS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN CLOUD-FREE

UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE

MID 50S TO MID 60S...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE

REACHED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN CO. LATEST VIS

IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG

HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NW OF TAD...EWD TO NEAR LAA.

IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS

WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO

SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED

LOW CLOUD BASES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yeah I really liked that area earlier and chose Limon (Co) as my 2nd Chase Target.

Still think the E Texas Panhandle will light up later on and if we were there we would be down in Childress now so if Co/Ks gets going we would just have to watch from afar.

Gotta do this as if you were there I suppose and no Virtual Lear Jets on offer! :shok:

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Yeah I really liked that area earlier and chose Limon (Co) as my 2nd Chase Target.

Still think the E Texas Panhandle will light up later on and if we were there we would be down in Childress now so if Co/Ks gets going we would just have to watch from afar.

Gotta do this as if you were there I suppose and no Virtual Lear Jets on offer! whistling.gif

GoodLand Kansas Radar

post-9700-12719608624192_thumb.jpg

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Seem to be cautious SPC this year and holding back. Definately going to be a good night to watch it unfold.

Meso hinting that at Tornado watch is imminent across Wern KS and Ern CO:

post-1052-12719599135792_thumb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221752Z - 221845Z

...TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO

INTO WRN KS...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO WARM RAPIDLY WITHIN CLOUD-FREE

UPSLOPE REGION OF ERN CO. THOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE

MID 50S TO MID 60S...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON BE

REACHED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN CO. LATEST VIS

IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH CU FIELD BEGINNING TO EXPAND/DEEPEN ALONG

HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NW OF TAD...EWD TO NEAR LAA.

IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS

WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO

SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED

LOW CLOUD BASES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2010

GoodLand Kansas Radar Tornado Warning

post-9700-12719619286792_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Meso discussion Tornado watch likely

post-5386-1271963557892_thumb.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0201 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221901Z - 222000Z

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT

SEVERAL HRS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY

BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE

IMAGERY...COINCIDENT WITH A SFC DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR A

DUMAS-WILDORADO-SUDAN LINE AS OF 19Z. MOIST/UNSTABLE AXIS EXTENDS

ACROSS THE CNTRL TX/OK PANHANDLES...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS

IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. 18Z KAMA RAOB INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AND

WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRATUS

FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. CONVECTION IS

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT

HR. DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IN THE

MOIST SECTOR WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX

PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD

TOWARDS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING MOISTURE GRADIENT AND

INCREASED DRYLINE CONVERGENCE.

INITIAL THREAT WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE

TO MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS. AS VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES

BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL AND

LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL

INCREASE.

..ROGERS.. 04/22/2010

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

First tornado of the day in Colorado... Not entirely surprised given the hodo's up that way... Reported as a large cone currently

AT 112 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JOHN MARTIN RESERVOIR...OR 24 MILES EAST OF

LA JUNTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

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