Model Output Discussion

[Eugene]

I've seen much worse charts than this, pretty cold for us and with deep cold building to our northeast, i just think we've been spoilt this winter when we are down over charts like this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

[andymusic]

I wonder if the gfs has suddenly woken up or whether this is just a fluke.

The GFS has done this to us before - it was showing a raging easterly earlier this week - then it dissappeared - now it's come back - a regular thing with the GFS model I think!

[La Bise]

If I remember correctly, Ian Fergusson who post on this forum on occasion was really sarcastic about the GFS.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The GFS has done this to us before - it was showing a raging easterly earlier this week - then it dissappeared - now it's come back - a regular thing with the GFS model I think!

Wasn't that the case with the December 2005 easterly. I'm sure that also disappeared for a few days before coming back again.

[Skyhi]

I was only talking about this 18Z GFS Easterly just a minute ago!

[Snowstorm1]

I refer back to my earlier post on the previous page. This is getting beyond a joke.

Who wants to drive up a wall with me?

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

[Eugene]

write off HP at your peril still cold and frosty wednesday night and to be honest this run isnt that different to 12Z showing you subtle differences can give colder temps and more in line with most other runs infact with a stronger HP build, very nice IMO, nice cold and dry, beats todays mild wet and overcast muck anyday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Edited January 22, 2010 by grab my graupel
As per this mornings pm

[andymusic]

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

Yes - the last week and a half they have improved but it'll take more than that for me to believe they have really got their facts and figures straightened out after their shocking summer and winter forecasts and other problems - we will watch with anticipation to see if they have managed to change for the good

[davehsug]

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

Off topic maybe, but I've detected no Met offfice haters. Just people genuinely puzzled as to why the METO (in the guise of the BBC), have continued to go for a scenario that seems unlikely given all we know. I don't think anyone has said it won't happen either & most hope it will!

[sandstorm2]

The GFS has done this to us before - it was showing a raging easterly earlier this week - then it dissappeared - now it's come back - a regular thing with the GFS model I think!

Sorry but I don't see much of an easterly on these charts, certainly not a raging one!

What these charts are showing is a slack flow off the continent at best that lasts about 24 hrs.

SS2

Edited January 22, 2010 by sandstorm2

[nick sussex]

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

As you can see the easterly will only last upto Tuesday so this is hardly a big upgrade, of more interest is the better heights to the NW,and more energy in the southern arm of the jet.

[andymusic]

Sorry but I don't see much of an easterly on these charts, certainly not a raging one!

SS2

ok - it's coming back to its original idea then - but the meto/bbc seem to be even more in the easterly camp - seeing something we aren't

[Weather-history]

I think there is some right old straw clutching tonight if people think GFS 18z op run is an upgrade as regards to the easterly.

Edited January 22, 2010 by Mr_Data

[snowingtequila]

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

All I can see on the 18z is a 6 - 9 hour easterly in the far southeast, the northerly looks more interesting later. Hopefully we can get some drier weather next week now, at least the models seem to agree on that

[yamkin]

Ill join you but im so relieved the gfs is now starting to follow the met office . so were are those met office haters now? They get a lot of stick but i for one think lately they have been doing very well considering,

I agree Snowstorm1.

Someone said earlier on that the BBC forecasters were most probably still referring to the UKMO 00Z model output regarding the Easterly. How wrong that post was. BBC would definitely knock the MetO heads if this were the case as the BBC is a paying customer. The BBC forecasters are highly trained meteorologists and would have known about the current UKMO 12Z output as well as the MetO.

It's imperative that we all remember that there are other models the MetO use that the public do not have access to.

[Snowstorm1]

I mean the easterly is at least 50miles further west on this run and if that continues it will be much more significant okay nothing compared to the last cold spell but still something noticeable.

Thankyou yamkin i fully agree.

Edited January 22, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[Weather-history]

So where do you think the meto/bbc are getting their info from then?

Not from GFS thats for sure. GFS 18z op run has certainly not moved towards the Met Office's position, we'll wait to see what the 96hr and 120hr FAX charts produce.

[January Snowstorm]

When all else fails let's drag the jma out

I fully expect the 18z to continue the clear trend of high pressure in situ

My comments from last night's 18z also concur for tonights - high in situ.

One would believe the models are all over the place reading some posts, yet the gfs has identified a high cell over Ireland next week for several days now.

If anything remarkable consistency from the gfs

[PB22]

Regardless of what some may think, the 18z GFS is closer to the UKMO over this "minor" easterly for the southeast of Britain than it has been for several runs now.

18Z GFS T+90 http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn901.html:

12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rukm961.html

Not identical by any means, but closer than for some time.

For comparison:

T+72 FAX: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

T+72 GFS 18z: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

Edited January 22, 2010 by Paul B

[Snowstorm1]

Regardless of what some may think, the 18z GFS is closer to the UKMO over this "minor" easterly for the southeast of Britain than it has been for several runs now.

18Z GFS T+90 http://www.wzkarten..../Rtavn901.html:

12z UKMO T+96: http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rukm961.html

Not identical by any means, but closer than for some time.

Thankyou Paul for posting this as this was what i was saying sometimes i feel like im talking to a brick wall

[nick sussex]

I agree Snowstorm1.

Someone said earlier on that the BBC forecasters were most probably still referring to the UKMO 00Z model output regarding the Easterly. How wrong that post was. BBC would definitely knock the MetO heads if this were the case as the BBC is a paying customer. The BBC forecasters are highly trained meteorologists and would have known about the current UKMO 12Z output as well as the MetO.

It's imperative that we all remember that there are other models the MetO use that the public do not have access to.

The UKMO don't have another longer range model, they use their own model and take alot of guidance from the ECM and its ensembles, together with the MOGREPS ensemble system upto 48hrs, perhaps people are reading too much into the bbc forecasts, perhaps they just mentioned the easterly and the cold might remain for a while with a slack flow with high pressure close by but even their own model sinks the block with the easterly gone by Wednesday. I'm all for ramping easterlies if this is justified but IMO its a red herring, any longer term wintry potential will have to come from the north with pressure building near Greenland, the easterly is a by product IMO of the models developing a different cold set up. Just as the pre Xmas cold spell downgraded the initial easterly as the models went in a different route to cold.

[pyrotech]

So where do you think the meto/bbc are getting their info from then?

The METO used the 0z ukmo which was showing the easterly, also well shown on the fax charts. This has been shown well over last 2 weeks with meto (bbc)going for snow when others were not. as much as meto are not getting the ( experimental) seasonal forecasts right, they are consistantly good with 5 day forecasts.

I am not against the other models as i find ecm good at mrf and GFS has its good days and bad.

The nae charts are again some of the best high resolution charts but very short term.

GFS has often this last few months found the trend before the other models, it then has consistantly dropped it to bring it back again after a few days. It wa then found that its original trend was pretty close to the mark. strange.

AS for fi well in my opinion we are in fi by 144hrs, subtle changes by then give a hugely different outcome.

Reliable sources go against the grain and predict a cold spell in february, so i am looking now for signs in fi of where that may come from.

not ramping this easterly either, its not a brilliant one by any means but just pointing out where meto have come with it, and the importance of highly respected proffessional input that you find on the fax charts.

Edited January 22, 2010 by pyrotech

[PB22]

The UKMO T+96 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax96s.gif

Still a cold flow into the south, and not too dis-similar to the GFS 18Z for the same time:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn901.html

Edited January 22, 2010 by Paul B

[Eugene]

This is similar to what i`m expecting early to mid Feb once the atlantic quietens down as it usually does in February.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

The atlantic just doesn't have enough power in it to take control of our weather with HP keeping a foothold over us throughout 18Z

[bluearmy]

lets put the beeb into perspective. Helen Willets mentioned that the cold thats bottled up to our east will come across us early next week. we all know that. havent you seen the uppers moving east to west over the past few days on the nwp. she never mentioned any strength to the flow and she didnt speak beyond 'early part of next week'. sometimes i read thru the posts on here and wish i hadnt. its like bloody chinese whispers.

now back to the science - i see the 18z trying its hardest to build a greeny ridge but that damn block just wont leave us alone. ah well, FAXES due out soon