Model Output Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

So atm nothing has changed, last night the ECM was with the GFS wrt to easterly next week, IMO all to play for still

A lot has changed. There was at least an easterly of sorts, but that has virtually disappeared completelyUKMO which had the high over Scandinavia up till this evening has placed it from Denmark, briefly across into northern england and the snow shower potential has gone. That is not being negative - it is pointing out the reality unfortunately.

Eyes next on the northerly late next week onwards to see if this stays on track.

Edited January 22, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[john mac]

So atm nothing has changed, last night the ECM was with the GFS wrt to easterly next week, IMO all to play for still

Just seen the BBC forcast with Dan Corbitt and there still going for cold from the east with wintery showers next week.

[bluearmy]

The ecm at T144 has the atlantic high stuck between the scandi trough and the strengthening southern arm. although the run may show some decent sypnotics later on as per the 00z, the output from the ops is looking increasingly like the extended ens with the block never able to retrogress far enough away to allow the cold to be advected in a convincing fashion. until i see the ens retrogress the block far enough away, i'll remain cautious of the various op output. this time, its the ens leading the way on this evolution.

as an aside, the ecm NH view shows the vortex split assunder by T168. the 00z had it back into 3 centres by T240 - not sure this run will manage that

Edited January 22, 2010 by bluearmy

[yamkin]

So atm nothing has changed, last night the ECM was with the GFS wrt to easterly next week, IMO all to play for still

I agree. Dan Corbett just showed very cold air from the East next week. The MetO's human input is very crucial here. Just remembered JH signed off earlier on by saying that it will be colder by the time he get's back on the 31st Jan

Just seen your post as well john mac

Edited January 22, 2010 by yamkin

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The easterly might be a no-no but ECM still on course for the northerly at t168

The UKMO will amend their t96 and t120 fax charts I think this evening and the BBC forecasts will be different too I expect for the first part of next week - based on the latest output.

Edited January 22, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

ECM t 168 looks a very good chart on meteociel with a very promising FI to come.

It looks to me on the northern hemisphere charts that we will see a northerly turn

more northeasterly on this run.

[yamkin]

ECM t 168 looks a very good chart on meteociel with a very promising FI to come.

It looks to me on the northern hemisphere charts that we will see a northerly turn

more northeasterly on this run.

It does look like a NE'ly may kick in. This ties in with the latest MetO forecast on BBC24

Edited January 22, 2010 by yamkin

[snowmadchrisuk]

The ECM has the Northerly , infact a good Northerly as it is a direct hit , All the models are now showing or hinting at a Northerly of some sorts , the GFS is the worse as it doesn't make it to Greenland and the patten get's flattened and reset. It is important to note though that the GFS does attempt the Northerly so over the weekend we need to start looking at getting some decent agreement . It is time to forget about the Easterly it was never going to bring us much anyway . There is still a chance we may pick up an Easterly breeze Sun and Mon , then all eyes on the Northerly.

[cooling climate]

A very potent looking north to northwesterly on the ECM t192 chart but very strange Arctic synoptics

with what looks to be a small segment of vortex sandwiched over the Victoria Islands in northern

Canada between two blocking highs.

[damianslaw]

The models seem to be doing some significant chopping and changing from day to day at the moment, emphasising the lack of confidence they have with projecting even the short-medium term outlook nevermind longer term. The reliable timeframe at the moment is very short it seems, so I wouldn't bank any money on what any of them are showing for Thursday onwards to come exactly to fruition.

The overall trend is for a easterly of sorts to develop over the next couple of days with a bit of a complication in the flow courtesy of development of lower heights over the North Sea, very good chance of some wintry precipitation Sunday night into Monday I feel for many central and eastern parts. As we head towards middle of next week, heights look like transferring to the mid atlantic - its a rather unusual pattern and then some sort of north westerly flow looks on the cards, whether we see the high sitting just to the west preventing any proper northerly establishing itself remains to be seen.

I will stick with my prediction that amplification of the jet will occur and a northerly flow will develop at least for a time, hopefully the PV will play ball, it has done for much of the winter, don't see any upstream signals to say it can't now.

[john mac]

The ECM has the Northerly , infact a good Northerly as it is a direct hit , All the models are now showing or hinting at a Northerly of some sorts , the GFS is the worse as it doesn't make it to Greenland and the patten get's flattened and reset. It is important to note though that the GFS does attempt the Northerly so over the weekend we need to start looking at getting some decent agreement . It is time to forget about the Easterly it was never going to bring us much anyway . There is still a chance we may pick up an Easterly breeze Sun and Mon , then all eyes on the Northerly.

Well the BBC are adement of an easterly for early next week, and said as the week goes on it will get colder still.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

Well as we were supposed to be suffering relentless wind and rain by next week i think i`ll bank this chart showing none at all, GFS has been the leader in all this btw, the first to have a potent easterly and the first to downgrade it, not bothered what ECM shows as it was showing mild westerlies for later next week just a few days ago and now shows a cold northerly.

[cooling climate]

That small piece of vortex that I mentioned causing the heights to collapse and the vortex to regroup.

It does not look right to me and it looks more likely that a very negative AO could develop instead.

[weather eater]

I don’t see any more model swapping and changing than usual. Very nice ECM, a mid Atlantic block with the potential for a northerly has been a regular feature for a while now and is now the definite trend. I never had much faith in the easterly and this sort of set-up with the mid Atlantic block has always been where I thought we would end up. Hats off to BFTP, as this is pretty much in line with his thoughts as well.

[cooling climate]

Hats off to BFTP, as this is pretty much in line with his thoughts as well.

Minus the mild temperatures and the storms you mean.

The blocking to the north will be modeled better over the coming days and I am sure we

will see the ridge extending into Greenland and north of Iceland area as a tanking AO

becomes apparent.

[Frosty.]

With the ECM probably being wrong as early as monday, I think that could cancel out the Northerly shown sweeping south into scotland during thurs/fri, if it can't even nail T+72 hours then it has no chance with T+144, so as much as I love the look of the arctic blast, I have serious doubts it will develop as shown. The meto/bbc are amazingly bullish about the easterly next week and it's staggering that neither the gfs or ecm are, what on earth is going on

[Ben_Cambs]

A monster High over Scandi on the ECM 12z at T+240:

(Of course that is deep in FI, and FI atm is about T+96 )

Edited January 22, 2010 by Snowman0697

[January Snowstorm]

A lot has changed. There was at least an easterly of sorts, but that has virtually disappeared completelyUKMO which had the high over Scandinavia up till this evening has placed it from Denmark, briefly across into northern england and the snow shower potential has gone. That is not being negative - it is pointing out the reality unfortunately.

Eyes next on the northerly late next week onwards to see if this stays on track.

I wonder really has much changed. The high pressure sitting over us is what I have been calling for the last 2 days, see my post around 18z time last night.

At least one of the big 3 has consistently shown the high in situ for most of next week.

People think im always negative, i prefer to call it taking an objective view. On what/how many gfs runs has the high centred over Ireland not been shown?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

A monster High over Scandi on the ECM 12z at T+240:

(Of course that is deep in FI, and FI atm is about T+96 )

no disrespect but there is no monster high anywhere near scandy.

That chart you have posted is hideous for cold lovers.

[Ben_Cambs]

no disrespect but there is no monster high anywhere near scandy.

That chart you have posted is hideous for cold lovers.

Woops......

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Woops......

just watched bbc n24 why are they persisting with this bitter cold from the east next week when the models are not showing it?

Edited January 22, 2010 by happy days

[john mac]

Im loking forwards to fax charts tonight as sunday and monday will well within range. Also the ECM esembles will be interesting tonight as the operational as been one of the milder members in recent days

[nick sussex]

I'm beginning to think the easterly is somewhat of a red herring here! Whilst I'm a little disappointed at the ECM regarding the easterly I'm happy to see it go along with my earlier thoughts to bring the Scandi trough further west and bring a north/northwesterly flow in. It does however look to flatten the pattern out later which is unlikely IMO.

I think the orientation of the eastern USA trough is causing problems for the models as this impacts downstream in terms of the amplification.In terms of the easterly this is likely to be a short affair although the ECM looks a little too quick here but its hard to say what the UKMO will do with their fax charts, looking at their 72hrs it does look like this has been slightly modified but I still find it hard to see how the synoptics of that 72hrs can evolve to the ECM at 96hrs in just 24hrs.

Overall then still some uncertainty within 96hrs regarding the easterly, a trend agreed on though with all the models later to sink the block with again divergence as to the amount of upstream amplification and how far west the Scandi trough gets.

Edited January 22, 2010 by nick sussex

[yamkin]

With the ECM probably being wrong as early as monday, I think that could cancel out the Northerly shown sweeping south into scotland during thurs/fri, if it can't even nail T+72 hours then it has no chance with T+144, so as much as I love the look of the arctic blast, I have serious doubts it will develop as shown. The meto/bbc are amazingly bullish about the easterly next week and it's staggering that neither the gfs or ecm are, what on earth is going on

This is where I love the MetO. The old legends like Michael Fish, Bill Giles, Ian McAskill, JH etc will be smiling right now as the MetO must be using a lot of human input. Let's not forget they also have other models we do not have access to. I'm not surprised the MetO on BBC24 are showing very cold E'ly air flow next week.

[Tim Bland]

With the ECM probably being wrong as early as monday, I think that could cancel out the Northerly shown sweeping south into scotland during thurs/fri, if it can't even nail T+72 hours then it has no chance with T+144, so as much as I love the look of the arctic blast, I have serious doubts it will develop as shown. The meto/bbc are amazingly bullish about the easterly next week and it's staggering that neither the gfs or ecm are, what on earth is going on

I agree, with the models all over the place it's amazing how the Meto / BBC are sticking their necks on the line for as far out as Weds! Why don't they just go as far as Sun and stop? I don't know what charts they are viewing at the moment! Had to laugh over on TWO they are saying that all the models are wrong and BBC are right, as if BBC is now a new model lol!