Model Output Discussion

[grab my graupel]

Totally agree with you, nothing has changed with regards to the models. People need to stop overreacting on here,its getting a bit boring.

Don't think anyone is overreacting Jon. I think they're just

describing what they believe will be the most likely scenario

after taking the various signals into consideration :unsure:

[snowingtequila]

Totally agree with you, nothing has changed with regards to the models. People need to stop overreacting on here,its getting a bit boring.

you'd think it was the last week in february not the third week in January the way people are talking. Makes this thread cery silly reading. Even if we get a two day sort of northerly, then mild westerlies we are still only in the first week of february and anything coulc happen. There does seem to be an overeaction to the models as of they describe the rest of winter rather tha give an idea of the next two weeks

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Totally agree with you, nothing has changed with regards to the models. People need to stop overreacting on here,its getting a bit boring.

I could easily say that the ECM 0z was going to happen to please lots of people but it wouldn't necessarily be realistic, boring as that might sound.

I would agree with the notion that the GFS is probably taking things too much the other way (hopefully) too - but I think if we post on this thread we still have to make a judgement on what might happen when taking background factors into account (irrespective of our own preferences) and if that is a 'boring' judgement then unfortunately so be it.

I see no point in predicting a freeze just to please everyone on here (including one's own potential hopes too) when the signals are not necessarily pointing towards that conclusively.

That isn't overreacting - it is trying to be honest

As also rather 'mundanely' suggested yesterday, the METO/BBC etc have now taken latest model data into account and have readjusted the weeks outlook accordingly

I really can understand now, when ( even as a cold weather and snow enthusiast yourself) one suggests anything other than a 1740 winter reprise, there are some other 'coldies' on here throw everything out of the pram! Might be worth reading GP's thoughts for Feb for an honest appraisal. He has been accurate so far this winter, and his thoughts for Feb might not be too far wrong either, even if they are not as exciting as thus far. Also I would include JH in that respect too. He has supported a cold end to jan - but signals are less clear for Feb.

Edited January 23, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cooling climate]

This very much supports what I think the northern hemispheric patterns are showing for February.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Anderson&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Anderson/archives/2010/01/february_looking_busy_for_me_1.asp

This would almost certainly put the UK and Europe back in the freezer.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

you'd think it was the last week in february not the third week in January the way people are talking. Makes this thread cery silly reading. Even if we get a two day sort of northerly, then mild westerlies we are still only in the first week of february and anything coulc happen. There does seem to be an overeaction to the models as of they describe the rest of winter rather tha give an idea of the next two weeks

I would refer the honourable gentleman to the reply just given

And much as GMG has helpfully also suggested

[TEITS]

you'd think it was the last week in february not the third week in January the way people are talking. Makes this thread cery silly reading. Even if we get a two day sort of northerly, then mild westerlies we are still only in the first week of february and anything coulc happen. There does seem to be an overeaction to the models as of they describe the rest of winter rather tha give an idea of the next two weeks

Yes anything could happen. However we're not referring to the rest of Feb and are merely commenting on what the models show.

In my opinion the 0Z ECM is one of those runs that synoptically speaking rarely comes off. Having said this I do feel a 48/72hr N,ly might be possible but this won't bring the type of cold we have seen lately. Reading the Met O outlook and this seems to agree with snow only really being mentioned for the mountains of Scotland.

Like I said yesterday a weak E,ly followed by possibly a weak N,ly followed by milder W,lys.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06Z op is a mild outlier from 1st Feb...

Another half baked attempt at a Northerly from the GFS 06z which is due to the atlantic high being much closer to the west with the true cold sweeping down into europe instead. Hopefully we will at least get something like the GEM 00z but the ECM 00z is just too good to be true and probably way off the mark but something between the feeble gfs attempt and gem 2-3 day N'ly toppler is probably favourite but followed by a mild spell.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes anything could happen. However we're not referring to the rest of Feb and are merely commenting on what the models show.

In my opinion the 0Z ECM is one of those runs that synoptically speaking rarely comes off. Having said this I do feel a 48/72hr N,ly might be possible but this won't bring the type of cold we have seen lately. Reading the Met O outlook and this seems to agree with snow only really being mentioned for the mountains of Scotland.

Like I said yesterday a weak E,ly followed by possibly a weak N,ly followed by milder W,lys.

It was my innocent 'musings' about perhaps the best weather of the winter about to pass that has caused the consternation Dave

I very much hope I am wrong - but even if not, I have hardly suggested that winter is 'over'!

Experience has shown me at least, and like you, that the type of evolution shown by the ECM doesn't often actually verify. People like Steve Murr etc who are more clued up than the likes of me in terms of the technicalities have said much the same when the models have shown this type of pattern before.

As stated though, always nice to be proved wrong

[Snowly does it]

Certainly an Atlantic ridge to Greenland, unreinforced by an Arctic High building has, on rcent evidence, given no more than a 2-3 day toppler.

Such a thing will never be a stable long-term block.

I don't see a signal for westerlies myself. Perhaps HP sinking over the UK though. Having said that, GFS has played in recent runs with the ridge to GL, sink and ridge back to GL scenario as well.

[TEITS]

People like Steve Murr etc who are more clued up than the likes of me in terms of the technicalities have said much the same when the models have shown this type of pattern before.

Funny you say that because I thought of Steve M when I viewed the ECM because I remember him saying to be wary of such output.

I would love to be wrong too because apart from Dec 18th-24th this winter hasn't been anything special for me as i've been dreadfully unlucky wrt to snowfall. So before winter ends I would love to see one more blast from the N/E.

What some members need to realise is nobody loves cold spells as much as ourselves. However we have to be realistic and at the moment I cannot see much potential for quiet some time.

[Bobby]

What some members need to realise is nobody loves cold spells as much as ourselves. However we have to be realistic and at the moment I cannot see much potential for quiet some time.

I think the same looking at the charts. I'd love a freezing snowy Arctic outbreak like the ECM but I think the high is going to stay too close to us and we'll end relatively cold but mainly dry and settled.

[cold snap]

Another half baked attempt at a Northerly from the GFS 06z which is due to the atlantic high being much closer to the west with the true cold sweeping down into europe instead. Hopefully we will at least get something like the GEM 00z but the ECM 00z is just too good to be true and probably way off the mark but something between the feeble gfs attempt and gem 2-3 day N'ly toppler is probably favourite but followed by a mild spell.

Just seams to me that there has been cold pools to are east and north but the way the models are tapping into them is so half hearted and over complicated that we end up with a modified version and not the real deal.

It really is frustating to see this good cold pools being tapped into so weakly especially when we are surrounded by them.

GFS and ECM have shown many chances thats why the intrest is so much more than previous winters.

oh and yes im moving to Germany.i wish

Edited January 23, 2010 by cold snap

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Certainly an Atlantic ridge to Greenland, unreinforced by an Arctic High building has, on rcent evidence, given no more than a 2-3 day toppler.

Such a thing will never be a stable long-term block.

I don't see a signal for westerlies myself. Perhaps HP sinking over the UK though

Agree - that is quite a strong possibility.

The AO signal, whilst positive, can be unreliable - but a positive phase would be supported by the colder stratosphere of later.

Mid latitude inversion type high close to the UK would fit in that type of pattern though without necessarily any westerly or worse still blowtorch pattern.

Latest METO update seems to indicate that as a possibility by the first week or so of Feb

Have a good day all

[Tim Bland]

The writing is definitely on the wall WRT any decent cold spell. Only hope was that the Meto where picking up on something we where not and today their long range forecast has backed away from it. Also forecasts have removed the talk of cold easterly winds next week. I don't want to say winter is over but I think we have seen the best of it. It will be mid feb at least before significant WAA gets north and the AO drops neggative and by this point the sun is getting stronger and winter is dying.

[Duane S.]

Why ?

Last few days T72 and maybe T48 was FI, now charts at T168 and T240 are generating 'excitement' by a few because there showing what people want to see. If it was mild mush people would be saying ignore it and suggest T96+ is FI

Talk about what could occur on the ECM after T240 today is fine but Im not having a party yet. (Although its nice to see this morning an improving trend (if you like cold/snow etc)

As I said, or at least tried to convey, as long as there was not a lot of strength in the Northern arm then an evolution from the ECM +240 chart MAY be an Easterly for us.

I think there are way too many "oh well we had a great run" type posts in here this morning like people know this is the beginning of the end of the winter.

I see a lot of potential in the days ahead that will stop making me make such bold claims quite yet.

Interesting to see that...

is a bit of an outlier...

Personally, I think the level of Northerly blocking is being totally under-estimated by the models at the moment.

Also are we now looking at a slightly better AM signal for the end of the month as Mountain Torque seems to be on the increase again? Or am I reading that wrong. GP??

[nick sussex]

I have to agree with Tamara and Dave here regarding the late stages of the ECM output, we often see the models play with this scenario with the jet curving back through Europe suggesting a possible ne'rly flow but this rarely happens, to have any chance of this the high would have to be much further north initially so that as it topples se'wards and on its southern flank pulls in a colder ne flow however this would still see the pattern eventually flattening out.

However I'm still happy to go with the initial north to nw flow,this is plausible and has growing support from the GEFS ensembles, however for the cold to be prolonged we would need to see a proper pressure rise over Greenland, an Atlantic ridge cannot evolve into a proper Greenland high by itself.

[ZONE 51]

this is my first post in the model disussion i read this alot , i really enjoy the not sure whats its going to do next week feeling!

ive seen that ECMW/GEM are indicating at a strong north flow on 29/1 im quite new to studying the models

[Thundery wintry showers]

Still wise to preach caution at this early stage but there is pretty strong model agreement now on some kind of northerly outbreak in 5-6 days' time and it arises from a plausiible synoptic evolution. The main thing to watch out for is the possibility of the models overdoing heights over Greenland which could lead to the common "downgrade" once the northerly gets to within 3-4 days out.

Before this, a good deal of "anticyclonic gloom" but it may turn colder and brighter for a time on Monday with some hail and sleet showers for eastern regions as some colder air gets pulled across from the east.

[ribster]

There seems to be a supposition on here at times, that we are all looking for snow in the models, and while I love to see the white stuff, I consider it a bonus. If snow is all that 'does it for you' in winter, then fair enough. Personally, I like winter to 'feel' like winter, and in that respect, it has done pretty much all the time thus far. Not to mention, I think practically all have seen some snow, and some very decent snowfall here in particular. Coupled with the fact that we have seen synoptics this year (that also delivered) that some thought we would probably never see again. So for me it's been a fabulous winter so far, with virtually no mild dross here - plenty of model watching to do yet...

Edited January 23, 2010 by ribster

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Meto's 5 day accuracy is at an all time low right now. there 3-5 day has changed again this morning , there advice regarding Monday that they have put out on the BBC has changed also. They are lucky if there getting a 24 hours forecast right. I know this is a complicated situation but were suppose to be advancing in forecasting not going backwards. Rant over but all forecasts have done a total switch around from yesterday and there was no need for them forecasts yesterday .. all models were showing there raging Easterly wasn't going to happen.

[karyo]

Nice MJO progress into phase 7 http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

This ties well with the possibility for a northerly. GP posted a few days ago in the Technical Model discussion thread, the composites of phase 7 and 8 for late Jan/early Feb, showing a juicy northerly for northwest Europe.

No point worrying about mild westerlies for the later outlook. We've just had the best first half of winter for decades! 2-3 days cold outbreaks will do just fine for me. Hopefully something more long lasting for the second half of February/March with the helpof the stratospheric warming.

Karyo

[cooling climate]

As I said, or at least tried to convey, as long as there was not a lot of strength in the Northern arm then an evolution from the ECM +240 chart MAY be an Easterly for us.

I think there are way too many "oh well we had a great run" type posts in here this morning like people know this is the beginning of the end of the winter.

I see a lot of potential in the days ahead that will stop making me make such bold claims quite yet.

Interesting to see that...

is a bit of an outlier...

Personally, I think the level of Northerly blocking is being totally under-estimated by the models at the moment.

Also are we now looking at a slightly better AM signal for the end of the month as Mountain Torque seems to be on the increase again? Or am I reading that wrong. GP??

Yes the winter is over posts are very amusing (and silly) with a totally oposite signal coming from the northern hemisphere

charts. I am surprised that there has been no mention on the post I did earlier which shows the weekly outlooks from the

European model for next month.

It seems that while I have an optimistic view to sledging with my grandchildren from next weekend near to where I live

others have thoughts on much milder,T shirt weather. we shall see.

As for the met (6-15 day forcast ) and the BBC well what can you say. Plus it is funny how yesterday the Met were going

for the northerly and now that the ECM has completely come aboard (operational at least) and the UKMO is certainly

trending that way they have now decided to drop this idea. Surely not more egg on their faces.

[matty lfc]

The Meto's 5 day accuracy is at an all time low right now. there 3-5 day has changed again this morning , there advice regarding Monday that they have put out on the BBC has changed also. They are lucky if there getting a 24 hours forecast right. I know this is a complicated situation but were suppose to be advancing in forecasting not going backwards. Rant over but all forecasts have done a total switch around from yesterday and there was no need for them forecasts yesterday .. all models were showing there raging Easterly wasn't going to happen.

I find it ludicrous,and quite disturbing, that a lot of amateur model watchers on here can correctly call that the meto/BBC forecast is all wrong a full 24hrs before they realise they've made another mistake and backtrack accordingly!!!

All this talk about having "super computers" and access to models we can only dream of etc just hides the fact that because of atlantic driven zonality these past few winters,the Meto have become used to forecasting by default.A lot of the "feeling" has gone out of their forecasts and they're at a pretty low ebb right now in terms of accuracy and respect.Dont even get me started on their obseesion with man made GW.

As for the models,i think we'll have slightly below temps next week,mainly dry,with the odd wintry shower for the Eastern half of the UK.........nothing to get too excited about,in my opinion

[snowingtequila]

Yes anything could happen. However we're not referring to the rest of Feb and are merely commenting on what the models show.

In my opinion the 0Z ECM is one of those runs that synoptically speaking rarely comes off. Having said this I do feel a 48/72hr N,ly might be possible but this won't bring the type of cold we have seen lately. Reading the Met O outlook and this seems to agree with snow only really being mentioned for the mountains of Scotland.

Like I said yesterday a weak E,ly followed by possibly a weak N,ly followed by milder W,lys.

it was a couple of posts that did sum up the winter and suggest it is over now I was referring to not talk of what the models show for the next couple of weeks. Some posts did seem to be referring to the rest of Feb which seemed a little shortsighted. The best thing I can see about the models and where the consistancy seems to be is having high pressure near by which means I may see the sun which has been in short supply for a while. Much as I like cold I am not too bothered if it is dry for a week.

Edited January 23, 2010 by snowingtequila

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

For the final time, please actually READ what offending post 294 (my own) actually says without misrepresentations

Nowhere is it said that winters is definitively over, but on the basis that we have just had the coldest 30 to 40 day spell of weather seen for many decades as Ribster has rightly said, it is going to take a lot to match and/or surpass that for the rest of winter. Hence why I suggest we MAY have seen the best of it now.

Plus, on the basis of some of the best analysis available from this forum, plus the current overall model outlook there is no suggestion of a return to those exact conditions at the present time. In that regard. note the cautionary comments made about the ECM 0z, which nick s has also placed an endorsement on too.

So, on that basis it is not inconceivable that we have seen the very peak (read carefully the word 'peak') of this winters cold weather.

Enough of this already - lets comment on what the models currently show (as TEITS also suggested) without hopecasting or sleighting anyone who suggests something that might not be the most poplar outcome.

Happy saturday - there is more to the weekend and life than worrying 24/7 about the weather anyway

Most of all remember that this is the UK and not Alaska.

Rantette over .

Edit: My signature should suggest that winter is not 'over' anyway

Edited January 23, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection