Model Output Discussion

[Cloud 10]

Add the nogaps to the northerly campaign. nogaps12z

ecm even more up for it! ecm 14412z

Edited January 23, 2010 by Cloud 10

[billy]

And the ECM at 144 also very good

[J10]

And the ECM at 144 also very good

Very good agreement with the UKMO as well.

[Geordiesnow]

ECM moves to the full on northerly but i think it will topple fairly quickly judging by the position of the high pressure ridging.

In truthness, we are not all that far away from a cold shot earlier on in all the model runs but most of the cold air goes into the North Sea although eastern areas clip any cold air. If this takes any further westward movements, northern and eastern parts of Scotland will be more in risk of wintry/snow showers.

[bluearmy]

ecm T144 - our block now has a chance to interact with the ridge of the eastern seaboard. wonder what that will do? - flatten the pattern i'm afraid

[cold snap]

Yes, it's the sort of northerly toppler that leads to a minimum 10 days of mild weather as the High topples and we see those forboding dark blues and purples to the NW.

Ian is it for the best that we dont pull that northely toppler in at all?

[phil nw.]

Yes, and the GEM is running with UKMO as well at T144!

Just saw your post, indeed!

Maybe too much hope being invested in the projected Northerly next week.

The Northern jet energy showing coming across from Newfoundland in the next few days will prevent the Atlantic High ridging too far North and will eventually sink it into a Mid-latitude High.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn14415.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=5&carte=0

Really if you were to look at the broad pattern all the models are similar at T144hrs.Compare the GEM and the GFS, the uppers will be similar within a degree or so.

The next few days will continue on the cold and fairly quiet side but the Northerly,as it looks now,will be brief and unsustainable in the current projected flow.

Edited January 23, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[cooling climate]

Even though the ECM topples the high at t168 there are still huge differences between the

GFS, and the Euro models in how the vortices's are modeled.

I would expect to see more support now for the northerly in the ECM ensembles later on

tonight as it has not moved towards the GFS at all.

[bluearmy]

Yes, it's the sort of northerly toppler that leads to a minimum 10 days of mild weather as the High topples and we see those forboding dark blues and purples to the NW.

thing is ian - at T168 on the 12z ecm, there is a area of high dams over the pole. at T192 on the 00z, there was a segment of the p/v sitting there. with the polar patterns so uncertain, all bets remain off beyond T144.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ecm is pretty much like UKMO at +144 , but it still only makes it a brief Northerly with height's just not making it into Greenland. I am currently thinking A majour block will form over Greenland on the second week of Feb though as I have jsut been speaking to some experts on Facebook Not allowed to give any more details im afraid

[Geordiesnow]

Yes, it's the sort of northerly toppler that leads to a minimum 10 days of mild weather as the High topples and we see those forboding dark blues and purples to the NW.

I think the word COULD should of been added to this post, posts like these can be a little misleading to say the least.

Anyways, the northerly is gaining more support so the UKMO at 144 hours should be taken more seriously now. For now, i'm not too fussed about it toppling, it would just be nice if we can get more agreement about a cold onions hitting us!

[snow1975]

Ecm is pretty much like UKMO at +144 , but it still only makes it a brief Northerly with height's just not making it into Greenland. I am currently thinking A majour block will form over Greenland on the second week of Feb though as I have jsut been speaking to some experts on Facebook Not allowed to give any more details im afraid

Is it anything to do with the projected very cold February in the eastern US?

I'm thinking there could be a deep trough off the eastern seaboard,, which might give WAA up western Greenland and create a GH?

[Snowyowl9]

This is as good as it gets on ECM,probably just as cold as the N-ly at the surface.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm721.gif

As for the N-ly thats just a toppler.Mild W/NW-lys follow that.

[phil nw.]

GFS 12z Ens.mean indicates quite a lengthy Anticyclonic period.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100123/12/prmslWarwickshire.png

Just a brief dip in air pressure as we get the brief Northerly.

2m Temps.close to average ,maybe rather cold on a couple of days,in the next 7 days.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100123/12/t2mWarwickshire.png

The op.run in the middle of the pack.

[TEITS]

Yes, it's the sort of northerly toppler that leads to a minimum 10 days of mild weather as the High topples and we see those forboding dark blues and purples to the NW.

Yes unfortunately the 12Z ECM confirms my fears and those of Tamaras aswell. How this N,ly synoptically develops is always likely to result in a 48hr N,ly followed by a toppling of the HP. The problem is the low heights around the pole which is why im always dubious of a Atlantic HP retrogressing to Greenland for the simple reason it rarely happens.

Seems to me that Feb 1st will start off with fairly average temps or just above with HP being centred near or over the UK. This pattern is unlikely to change for a while due to the dreaded dark blues, purples to our N as you rightly point out.

A very good time for me to take a break from the models!!

Edited January 23, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[nick sussex]

Looking at the overall model output I think the early part of February maybe a damage limitation exercise! by this I mean making the best of the expected unfavourable pattern. Looking at the gefs ensembles theres no real support for a proper build of pressure to the north, generally they go for a euro high for early February, interestingly the operational gfs is a bigger mild outlier the further south you go into Europe, looking through the different solutions much of central and southern europe hangs onto some colder air for much longer as many of the ensembles keep the high far enough north to allow for a colder continental flow, several also keep it colder in the se of the UK.

I'm not trying to be unduly negative here but in these set ups the jet will ride over the top sinking the high unless you get a build of pressure to the north or ne.

Having said all this at least theres a chance of a northerly for a few days so it's not all bad. There are just a few variables that could make some difference, the orientation of the eastern USA trough, also if the MJO strengthens enough and gets into phase 1, we could see the high toppling ne'wards and could keep the high far enough north to keep it on the cold side with some frost especially for eastern and se areas.

So overall perhaps a little disappointing for those wanting big freeze part 3 but there is some interesting weather in the outlook before the pattern settles down with the euro high arriving. To be honest we've had some great synoptics for most of the winter and so should still be pleased at the winter so far, in most recent winters a northerly toppler is the best it's ever got so we should take the possible northerly as a little bonus!

Still of course time for some changes but looking at the model output this evening that seems the way to go.

[Ripeberry]

Ecm is pretty much like UKMO at +144 , but it still only makes it a brief Northerly with height's just not making it into Greenland. I am currently thinking A majour block will form over Greenland on the second week of Feb though as I have jsut been speaking to some experts on Facebook Not allowed to give any more details im afraid

Sounds very interesting, do tell more

[Ben_Cambs]

Looking at the overall model output I think the early part of February maybe a damage limitation exercise! by this I mean making the best of the expected unfavourable pattern. Looking at the gefs ensembles theres no real support for a proper build of pressure to the north, generally they go for a euro high for early February, interestingly the operational gfs is a bigger mild outlier the further south you go into Europe, looking through the different solutions much of central and southern europe hangs onto some colder air for much longer as many of the ensembles keep the high far enough north to allow for a colder continental flow, several also keep it colder in the se of the UK.

I'm not trying to be unduly negative here but in these set ups the jet will ride over the top sinking the high unless you get a build of pressure to the north or ne.

Having said all this at least theres a chance of a northerly for a few days so it's not all bad. There are just a few variables that could make some difference, the orientation of the eastern USA trough, also if the MJO strengthens enough and gets into phase 1, we could see the high toppling ne'wards and could keep the high far enough north to keep it on the cold side with some frost especially for eastern and se areas.

So overall perhaps a little disappointing for those wanting big freeze part 3 but there is some interesting weather in the outlook before the pattern settles down with the euro high arriving. To be honest we've had some great synoptics for most of the winter and so should still be pleased at the winter so far, in most recent winters a northerly toppler is the best it's ever got so we should take the possible northerly as a little bonus!

Still of course time for some changes but looking at the model output this evening that seems the way to go.

Excellent post Nick! I agree with you that we have had fantastic synoptics this winter and I think some people have taken them for granted, compared to the awful pre 08/09 winters! I cant see another cold spell until at least Mid Feb, hopefully a negative NAO could help us then! The De Bilt ensembles should be interesting tonight to confirm what is likely to happen in the near future

[nick sussex]

Excellent post Nick! I agree with you that we have had fantastic synoptics this winter and I think some people have taken them for granted, compared to the awful pre 08/09 winters! I cant see another cold spell until at least Mid Feb, hopefully a negative NAO could help us then! The De Bilt ensembles should be interesting tonight to confirm what is likely to happen in the near future

Thanks

Well it's hard to say how the whole of February will pan out but regardless it has been a very good winter so far, i think perhaps people got into a comfort zone with the recent cold weather and perhaps expected too much from any future synoptics.

If we can squeeze a decent 2 day northerly with some snow and a few frosty nights before the euro high arrives then that will be fine, and then lets hope the high can stay far enough north to still allow for some sunshine and frosts after this.

Edited January 23, 2010 by nick sussex

[aspire27]

Ecm is pretty much like UKMO at +144 , but it still only makes it a brief Northerly with height's just not making it into Greenland. I am currently thinking A majour block will form over Greenland on the second week of Feb though as I have jsut been speaking to some experts on Facebook Not allowed to give any more details im afraid

A link or more information would be nice. Otherwise pointless comment.

[Geordiesnow]

I do find it strange that people would take a 48 hour easterly but will be dissapointed with a 48 hour Northerly followed by high pressure building in.

I personally would take both but we can't even be certain any northerly will affect us, it would be nice if January did end on a cold and for some, snowy note but this is not a certainty.

IMO, the model output today, is a little bit better than yesterday. I think some are reading too much into the longer term regarding what happens after any northerly toppler.

[Snowyowl9]

Excellent post Nick! I agree with you that we have had fantastic synoptics this winter and I think some people have taken them for granted, compared to the awful pre 08/09 winters! I cant see another cold spell until at least Mid Feb, hopefully a negative NAO could help us then! The De Bilt ensembles should be interesting tonight to confirm what is likely to happen in the near future

Yes a very good post by Nick there,reality check.

By the way you can exclude 05/06 from those winters that was actually one of the much better recent winters.

March was the most snowy month that winter.

Bet March will deliver something again,I know theres still february but signals look more a milder outlook.

[cooling climate]

A link or more information would be nice. Otherwise pointless comment.

I posted this earlier which I am surprised no one commented on.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Anderson&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Anderson/archives/2010/01/february_looking_busy_for_me_1.asp

[snowray]

I do find it strange that people would take a 48 hour easterly but will be dissapointed with a 48 hour Northerly followed by high pressure building in.

I personally would take both but we can't even be certain any northerly will affect us, it would be nice if January did end on a cold and for some, snowy note but this is not a certainty.

IMO, the model output today, is a little bit better than yesterday. I think some are reading too much into the longer term regarding what happens after any northerly toppler.

I think the main problem with a Northerly is that its watered down version often only peppers the coasts with odd snow shower, Norfolk usually does ok though and more Western areas of the UK particularly if we end up with more of a NWly.

A half decent Easterly can on the other hand effect many more areas with snowfall as we saw on 3rd Feb last year.

Also an Easterly can go on and on for days, weeks even, and as we aproach what is generally considered the peak of Winter there could be some very cold temps.

As you say quite correctly though, a 48 hour Easterly can be neither here nor there, but last Februarys lasted a lot less than 48hrs.

Edited January 23, 2010 by snowray

[snowmadchrisuk]

A link or more information would be nice. Otherwise pointless comment.

All I'm saying is watch out for a Greenland strong Block forming Mid Feb or just before. I can't say anything else because the people I speak to are not aloud to release this early . I will say it looks like WAA looks to become our friend.

I agree the first attempt at the Northerly will be a 48hr topple because the state of the atmosphere currently means that this is the most likely outcome. Teleconections look to become a lot more farourable though shortly .

I posted this earlier which I am surprised no one commented on.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Anderson&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Anderson/archives/2010/01/february_looking_busy_for_me_1.asp

Thanks for that dude, Kind of confirms what I have heard , although being accu weather and also based for the USA it is not something I would use for reliable INFO . But it is very good to see they are thinking along them lines.