Model Output Discussion

[snowray]

Not seen a post from Blast this morning, I was just wondering if the ECM is more in line with his thoughts, IE: a storm at the end of the month, but hitting us from the North East as opposed to coming in from the Atlantic, and HP setting up just West/North West of the UK in the Atlantic as we move into early February, just a thought but could all tie in maybe?

The alternative forcasing methods such as BFTPs and Rogers do fascinate me, although I'm sort of mystified as to how a storms location can be pinpointed to hit a particular area, or Country using such methods, or the direction that it will come from.

Regards

Snowray

Edited January 23, 2010 by snowray

[Rollo]

The writing is definitely on the wall WRT any decent cold spell. Only hope was that the Meto where picking up on something we where not and today their long range forecast has backed away from it. Also forecasts have removed the talk of cold easterly winds next week. I don't want to say winter is over but I think we have seen the best of it. It will be mid feb at least before significant WAA gets north and the AO drops neggative and by this point the sun is getting stronger and winter is dying.

I cound not disagree more,in winters past February has been THE month for cold snowy weather,granted the sun is stronger and there is more daytime melt but the combination of sunshine and (hopefully) deep snow cover is for me the most delightful of winters days.I think come mid-March it is time to look forward hopefully to warmer spring days.

[shotski]

I cound not disagree more,in winters past February has been THE month for cold snowy weather,granted the sun is stronger and there is more daytime melt but the combination of sunshine and (hopefully) deep snow cover is for me the most delightful of winters days.I think come mid-March it is time to look forward hopefully to warmer spring days.

Agree, I think all the models look fantastic up to 180 hours and after this its unreliable. We need to forget about the recent cold spell and

start comparing the output to winters past. apart from a mildish interlude mid-week we are in a cold flow with a massive pool of cold air to

our north east, We should be jumping up and down

[Snowyowl9]

I`m going to make the most of my snow drifts they should last into february looking at the models as nothing very mild coming,the only mild will be from a NW-ly coming around the atlantic high.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png

As this week should be a nice dry settled period with night frosts to start with,colder air in the east.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

The easterly is now forgotten.

As for the N-ly some cold air does come in for a time,well looking at GFS 0z run.

Edited January 23, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Duane S.]

Forecasts improving daily...

And the MJO now into a very favourable phase

[ZONE 51]

interesting article here about metoffice

dailymail

Edited January 23, 2010 by nimbilus

[azores92]

play nicely, folks. NSSC has made a very good point, how in reality, a cold spell like we had through early january was rare in this country, to say the least, and to see a repeat in longevity and intensity is very unlikely. we arent in eastern europe, the atlantic is such an omnipresent threat to cold spells in winter here in britain. im not bothered about cold spells anymore this winter, some springlike weather would be welcome to me now, after seeing so much snow earlier in the month, and the second half of december too.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the overall model output today and the upstream pattern I think we have a good idea of the trend going forward but the uncertainty really is past the possible northerly/nwerly. I think we'll see the models agree on some form of northerly for later next week however how cold depends on the Scandi trough and the upstream amplification. Theres very good agreement for a west USA ridge and eastern USA trough, these are two important ingredients in terms of a possible northerly. So i think we'll see a brief easterly followed by less cold conditions for a few days as the high retrogresses westwards together with unsettled conditions spreading south, followed by a colder nw to northerly flow for a few days. After this point is the main uncertainty, without pressure rising over Greenland the high will be flattened by the jet coming over the top, theres a small chance the high might ridge far enough north so that when it topples it gives a short ne'rly spell especially for eastern and se areas. In terms of lengthening the cold we'd need to see pressure rises to the north or ne and this for the moment is very uncertain and currently low probability, although the MJO may help a little here.

Edited January 23, 2010 by nick sussex

[MP-R]

GFS is going for the high out in the Atlantic to eventually merge with the high to the east.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2010012212-0-108.png?12

Under this setup surely only the northern half of the country would feel the milder effects of a more westerly wind. Notice also the height rises over Greenland, isn't this what we need to help move towards another cold spell and prevent the jet getting in the way.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Forecasts improving daily...

And the MJO now into a very favourable phase

Not entirely sure where some of the talk of a positive AO is coming from with outputs like that! Things still look very interesting to me, though obviously the cold spell we've seen so far this winter would take an awful lot of beating, perhaps not in terms of individual snowfalls but in terms of the length and intensity of the cold. However, nothing is screaming very mild for February at all, merely much less emphatically cold than what we've seen so far. I would also like to here what BFTP, Steve Murr and JH are saying about it all.

It will be another interesting set of 12Zs to look at and see which models go for what length/intensity of northerly.

LS

GFS is going for the high out in the Atlantic to eventually merge with the high to the east.

http://91.121.94.83/...12-0-108.png?12

Under this setup surely only the northern half of the country would feel the milder effects of a more westerly wind. Notice also the height rises over Greenland, isn't this what we need to help move towards another cold spell and prevent the jet getting in the way.

Aaah, but note the blue colours associated with it, which tells us that this is merely a surface high, not blocking high.

[bluearmy]

This very much supports what I think the northern hemispheric patterns are showing for February.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Anderson&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Anderson/archives/2010/01/february_looking_busy_for_me_1.asp

This would almost certainly put the UK and Europe back in the freezer.

sounds more like a west based -NAO which could just as easily put us in the greenhouse as the freezer!!

[MP-R]

Aaah, but note the blue colours associated with it, which tells us that this is merely a surface high, not blocking high.

Pants, so it is! That would also explain why pressure falls slightly again later on in the run, how careless of me.

[john mac]

For the final time, please actually READ what offending post 294 (my own) actually says without misrepresentations

Nowhere is it said that winters is definitively over, but on the basis that we have just had the coldest 30 to 40 day spell of weather seen for many decades as Ribster has rightly said, it is going to take a lot to match and/or surpass that for the rest of winter. Hence why I suggest we MAY have seen the best of it now.

Plus, on the basis of some of the best analysis available from this forum, plus the current overall model outlook there is no suggestion of a return to those exact conditions at the present time. In that regard. note the cautionary comments made about the ECM 0z, which nick s has also placed an endorsement on too.

So, on that basis it is not inconceivable that we have seen the very peak (read carefully the word 'peak') of this winters cold weather.

Enough of this already - lets comment on what the models currently show (as TEITS also suggested) without hopecasting or sleighting anyone who suggests something that might not be the most poplar outcome.

Happy saturday - there is more to the weekend and life than worrying 24/7 about the weather anyway

Most of all remember that this is the UK and not Alaska.

Rantette over .

Edit: My signature should suggest that winter is not 'over' anyway

Anyone who is thinking that we will get a cold spell like the one we've had again this winter is going to be dissapointed, but TBH i think most people will be happy with a couple more snow events. I had more snow last february than the last cold spell although it was fantastic for cold temps, fingers crossed for the northerly to come off as we can potentially get some decent frontal snow from northerlies.

[cooling climate]

Latest musings from NOAA this afternoon.

THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THE

FIRST SRN STREAM SYS WITH SHORTWAVES IN EITHER THE POLAR OR ARCTIC

BRANCHES OF THE WESTERLIES OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS LATE

NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW RELATIVELY HIGH

UNCERTAINTY FRI-SAT OVER THE ERN CONUS N OF ABOUT 37 DEGREES

LATITUDE. STAY TUNED.

ROTH/FLOOD

[bluearmy]

as i posted earlier, the NOAA discussion from this morning seems to indicate that the p/v may be destined for the pole by 2nd feb. that would lead to a northerly being rather difficult within a day or so of this date. therefore, no issue with the upcoming northerly but little chance of it being sustained or becoming a northeasterly. however, we could get a block to our east (again) even with a +AO. so those of you who seem to find it difficult to accept that the weather may turn milder for a peiod in feb can find solace in the fact that even a return of the p/v to the pole doent mean we cant have a cold scenario. hopefully that wont upset too many!! i think GP's take on things has proved first class over the season. we should now be entering a cold spell - i think if the siberian ridge hadnt hung around like a bad smell this week, we may well have managed it. never mind, we got lucky twice already this winter.

[john mac]

Well up to T126 and GFS has the northerly going into the continent however we could see upgrades over the coming days, it would take much may be 200-300miles and bingo and just look at the feed straight down from the artic

[KTtom]

I'd be very surprised if the ECM sticks to its guns tonight. The last 3 runs have been very consistent up to +168 hrs.

Not sure why the likes of Nick S. raves so much for the ECM, its been all over the place lately.

[Frosty.]

Another poor looking NW'ly from the GFS 12z looping around the atlantic high and down across the uk, hopes are fading fast for a N'ly just as hopes were extinguished for a potent easterly when the 00z models rolled out. Much as I know the gfs is a very flawed model, I cannot imagine it upgrading this into a Northerly as the timeframe moves closer.

[bluearmy]

i think the UKMO T144 will generate some interest. the thicknesses arent as low as they look though. promising though.

[karyo]

So far from the 12z's the GFS only brings a blink and you'll miss it northwesterly while the UKMO brings something much better!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

Karyo

[nick sussex]

I'd be very surprised if the ECM sticks to its guns tonight. The last 3 runs have been very consistent up to +168 hrs.

Not sure why the likes of Nick S. raves so much for the ECM, its been all over the place lately.

Because its the best global model! we have to separate its FI from its output upto 168hrs, any output past that point is liable to be very volatile, its been right about the easterly and looks to have called the trend towards a northerly correct, the UKMO is very good this evening and the GFS looks to now have gone AWOL!

[cooling climate]

The GFS still sticking with its previous runs regarding the movement of the vortices's.

At six days away there is plenty of room for error but it will be interesting to say the

least if the Euro's continue with potent northerly next weekend.

[Cheshire Freeze]

In a winter that started wtih so much promise, this is a sad sad sight......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

[cooling climate]

Just seen the UKMO and what a peach of a chart at t144. Lol just watch the ECM ditch the idea now.

Seriously though I do not think it will and typically of the GFS model it will run and run with a bad idea

until it finally comes on board with the other models.

[john mac]

In a winter that started wtih so much promise, this is a sad sad sight......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2041.png

Are you not happy with what you've had so far this winter then?