Model Output Discussion

[snowmadchrisuk]

Woops......

Perhaps Google Maps will help I don't like the ECM 240 chart because it removes the blocking over Greenland , We need to be hoping for a Cold Spell , as a Cold Snap would likely not give widespread Snow in a Northerly. Frosty has a point about the models not being very reliable past 72 hours at the moment , but Teleconnections are starting to suggest blocking may be more of a feature and I imagine the models are only just starting to pick up on it. If the NAO / AO go negative which is looking more and more likely then the models will start to change. The MJO was almost in phase 7 as of 21st (Yesterday) So i'm sure tomorrow we will see that it has made it , this is the most favourable phase for Northern Blocking.

[yamkin]

I agree, with the models all over the place it's amazing how the Meto / BBC are sticking their necks on the line for as far out as Weds! Why don't they just go as far as Sun and stop? I don't know what charts they are viewing at the moment! Had to laugh over on TWO they are saying that all the models are wrong and BBC are right, as if BBC is now a new model lol!

Hi Tim, I quite understand your comments, but due to the chopping and changing of the models lately, the MetO's human input is so crucial right now. Sorry for repeating myself, but the MetO have other models we do not have access to. We are looking at exciting times right now.

Edited January 22, 2010 by yamkin

[TEITS]

My view hasn't changed from this morning. Infact the 12Zs have only confirmed my fears. Like I said this morning expect the BBC/Met O to have a less wintry forecast tomorrow morning unless there is a major change in the model output which is doubtful.

Very little to be excited about to be honest. The E,ly is virtually non existent and the N,ly is a 48-72hr toppler. Looking at the ECM +240 confirms my fears which is why I disagreed with BFTP wrt to blocking to our NW. Looks like beyond the N,ly a spell of W,lys is likely with HP to our S and LP systems tracking to the N.

I shall be curious (from a forecasting perspective) tomorrow morning to see if the BBC/Met O do change to a less wintry forecast. Reason being is it was pretty obvious to me this morning!

I will add that John H suggested Feb will start on a cold note. So maybe im being too negative. However again from a forecasting perspective it will be interesting to see what happens because I can see the start of Feb being mild with W,lys.

Edited January 22, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[snowmadchrisuk]

I agree, with the models all over the place it's amazing how the Meto / BBC are sticking their necks on the line for as far out as Weds! Why don't they just go as far as Sun and stop? I don't know what charts they are viewing at the moment! Had to laugh over on TWO they are saying that all the models are wrong and BBC are right, as if BBC is now a new model lol!

To be honest Tim , I am surprised the Met Office are sticking there necks out on this , with there popularity ratings falling fast and inaccurate forecasts of late , they have to make sure this isn't the final cherry on the cake because the media are watching them like a hawk . The 18z Nae might throw some light on if we are to expect any Snow sunday night.

[nick sussex]

I agree, with the models all over the place it's amazing how the Meto / BBC are sticking their necks on the line for as far out as Weds! Why don't they just go as far as Sun and stop? I don't know what charts they are viewing at the moment! Had to laugh over on TWO they are saying that all the models are wrong and BBC are right, as if BBC is now a new model lol!

I agree i can't see the easterly lasting any longer than Tuesday, the pattern is evolving and the upstream changes mean the block has to sink, this is like pre Xmas with the downgraded easterly but simply because the models were already progging the next change to a different cold set up. I can't see how the bbc can be calling an easterly past midweek as the ukmo own model is already sinking the block. The ECM might be a bit too quick but its a timing issue, the pattern upto 168hrs looks plausible to me, my advice to people concentrate on where the retrogressing high goes, before Xmas the models overdid the northern arm of the jet meaning the high was further north than initially expected. The easterly as i mentioned a few days back won't deliver what people had hoped for, its a brief affair without the right high and med low combination in terms of orientation.

Edited January 22, 2010 by nick sussex

[La Bise]

MetO bashing is a sport for some media and it has precious little to do with weather forecast errors, let's be a bit less candid, shall we...Anyhow, interesting period coming up, on one hand the accumulated experience of human forecasters on the other over-reliance on computer modelisations, next week someone will be feeling a bit foolish.

[pyrotech]

My view hasn't changed from this morning. Infact the 12Zs have only confirmed my fears. Like I said this morning expect the BBC/Met O to have a less wintry forecast tomorrow morning unless there is a major change in the model output which is doubtful.

Very little to be excited about to be honest. The E,ly is virtually non existent and the N,ly is a 48-72hr toppler. Looking at the ECM +240 confirms my fears which is why I disagreed with BFTP wrt to blocking to our NW. Looks like beyond the N,ly a spell of W,lys is likely with HP to our S and LP systems tracking to the N.

I shall be curious (from a forecasting perspective) tomorrow morning to see if the BBC/Met O do change to a less wintry forecast. Reason being is it was pretty obvious to me this morning!

The UKMO charts do show the easterly and the way the UK met have performed throughout the cold spell i would probably go with them on this one.

If you look at the 00z charts by GFS, ECM AND UKMO you will see they are very similar except for the actual pressure contours over the UK. this at 72 - 144 hrs

I can see where ukmo are coming from on this one, but considering the other models are not showing it i am a little surprised they set their stall for next week so early when there was no real need too. They must be pretty confident.

It might be to get some confidence back after the bbq summer and mild winter fiaco. But apart from the long range forecasts i think meto have done pretty damn well right from the flooding in november till now.

BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS REGARDING THE MODELS OVER THE WEEKEND.

[john mac]

MetO bashing is a sport for some media and it has precious little to do with weather forecast errors, let's be a bit less candid, shall we...Anyhow, interesting period coming up, on one hand the accumulated experience of human forecasters on the other over-reliance on computer modelisations, next week someone will be feeling a bit foolish.

I totally agree with you mate, i have to say i cant remember the beeb going against the models as much as they are now. What time do the fax charts come out this evening?

[nick sussex]

MetO bashing is a sport for some media and it has precious little to do with weather forecast errors, let's be a bit less candid, shall we...Anyhow, interesting period coming up, on one hand the accumulated experience of human forecasters on the other over-reliance on computer modelisations, next week someone will be feeling a bit foolish.

Its not Meto bashing at all just surprise at how the bbc in conjunction with the UKMO can talk up the easterly when even the UKMO own model has already got rid of the easterly by Wednesday! The models all agree the block is going to sink, everyone knows I love easterlies especially for my location down here but if even I can't find it that interesting then that should be pretty obvious what I think of its chances.

The easterly at a stretch could last through Tuesday but thats if the UKMO go totally with their own output. I just cant see it lasting past this point.

[TEITS]

I totally agree with you mate, i have to say i cant remember the beeb going against the models as much as they are now. What time do the fax charts come out this evening?

+96/+120 come out between 22.00-23.00.

I see alot of comments about the BBC. If you want my opinion they are basing their forecasts on the 0Z UKMO. Later on they may be informed by the Met O that the outlook has changed and they will adjust their forecasts accordingly. So the less wintry outlook might be mentioned later on, if not definitely tomorrow morning.

I will add that everyone knows I love a good E,ly and im not being miserable for the sake of it. However i've seen these situations many times before where the BBC use old data. So please don't base your hopes on the BBC forecasts.

The harsh reality is virtually all models have backed away from the E,ly. The N,ly looks like a toppler which is why I cannot find any positive in the model output.

[Richard Lake]

If the 00z GFS overnight backtracks again towards the UKMO I think most of us will consider driving up a wall.

Interesting stuff, but I bet the BBC forecasts are wrong... again. I'll gladly pat them on the back if they do turn out to be correct. Once again we are none the wiser.

EDIT: Ha thats a lot of 'agains' in that sentence

Edited January 22, 2010 by rikki

[Skyhi]

If the 00z GFS overnight backtracks again towards the UKMO I think most of us will consider driving up a wall.

Interesting stuff, but I bet the BBC forecasts are wrong... again. I'll gladly pat them on the back if they do turn out to be correct. Once again we are none the wiser.

EDIT: Ha thats a lot of 'agains' in that sentence

Maybe the UKMO are onto something that no-one else knows, regardless of what the models are showing?

[john mac]

Well i am going to remain positive until i have been proven wrong( which is fine by me). Everthing is up in the air still so who's to say the models wont have flipped back again it has happened before, some very ptent cold snaps have come out of nowhere in the shorter term many times before. IMO its normally best this way as there is less time for things to go the way of pear.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Maybe the UKMO are onto something that no-one else knows, regardless of what the models are showing?

Well MR Mild , Dan Corbet has just said Colder weather heading our way for all next week . If he is saying it I really do have to scratch my head and think what do they know what we don't.

The rain we have today is actually the same band of rain that is going to swing back round into Scotland and maybe turn a little wintry tomorrow evening. This stills sticks around into Monday and like I said earlier , what ever the models say for the North Sunday could be quite a wintry day and due points look spot on also.

[cooling climate]

The northern hemispheric patterns are showing very good signs for a tanking AO and major cold

over many parts of America and Europe again just like they were doing prior to the very cold

pattern that set up in December and January.

I think the growing likely hood of a developing northerly will be jus the tip of the iceberg with the

coldest of our winter weather coming during February.

The signs really do look that good imo.

As for the Met and the BBC regarding the easterly I really hope they are correct on this not because

of my love for wintry weather but because they could both do with some good publicity, and not even

more flak than they have had to put up with.

[Duncan McAlister]

When the BBC/UKMO refer to cold could it possibly just relate to the surface cold that will result from HP being near the UK? All the models seem to be showing this, at least in the South East and Midlands.

[Skyhi]

Well MR Mild , Dan Corbet has just said Colder weather heading our way for all next week . If he is saying it I really do have to scratch my head and think what do they know what we don't.

The rain we have today is actually the same band of rain that is going to swing back round into Scotland and maybe turn a little wintry tomorrow evening. This stills sticks around into Monday and like I said earlier , what ever the models say for the North Sunday could be quite a wintry day and due points look spot on also.

I'm actally a 'coldie'!!....and I respect his forcast, and the forecasters before him who, for some time have been hinting at this cold coming from the east, including my local forecaster (Paul Hudson....interesting reading his blog), that is why I am of the opinion that the UKMO must be following a certain set of models etc to be sticking to this 'eastie'!

[bluearmy]

the NOAA cpc keep the mean placement of the block south of greenland and although the flow appears to come from the eastern side of greenland, you would bet that there would be a fair amount of pm in that flow. the NOAA discussion does highlight the problems next week in the states regarding the possible phasing of the northern and southern streams with a shortwave headed out of the gulf ne. nothing has changed re the length/strength of a northerly/northeasterly since yesterday morning. the WAA off the eastern seaboard in conjunction with the pattern out of the arctic will dictate how far north the block will ridge. at this juncture, it doesnt look good enough nor of any length (ie a toppler or maybe just shunted east). however, i wouldnt be too sure that the models necessarily have those two factors worked out yet. the good news is that a -AO continues to be supported.

When the BBC/UKMO refer to cold could it possibly just relate to the surface cold that will result from HP being near the UK? All the models seem to be showing this, at least in the South East and Midlands.

clever clogs - seems a win win for them doesnt it. i'm sure you're right.

[nick sussex]

The latest ECM De Bilt ensembles for the Netherlands are out.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

The operational run is at the top end of members until Tuesday which suggests the ECM maybe a bit too quick to end the brief easterly, after this however we see a clear signal from the ensembles to bring in an onshore flow which raises the temps, this looks in line with the current trend to develop a north to northwest flow.There is hardly any support to keep the easterly going past Wednesday.Looking at the ensembles the UKMO in compiling their fax charts may well leave their 96hrs output unmodified or just slightly taking the high further south but its clear unless they have access to another model no ones ever heard of then IMO the easterly will be gone by Wednesday.

After this it looks more unsettled but still possibly wintry depending on the upstream amplification and the Scandi trough.

Edited January 22, 2010 by nick sussex

[john mac]

The latest ECM De Bilt ensembles for the Netherlands are out.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

The operational run is at the top end of members until Tuesday which suggests the ECM maybe a bit too quick to end the brief easterly, after this however we see a clear signal from the ensembles to bring in an onshore flow which raises the temps, this looks in line with the current trend to develop a north to northwest flow.There is hardly any support to keep the easterly going past Wednesday.Looking at the ensembles the UKMO in compiling their fax charts may well leave their 96hrs output unmodified or just slightly taking the high further south but its clear unless they have access to another model no ones ever heard of then IMO the easterly will be gone by Wednesday.

After this it looks more unsettled but still possibly wintry depending on the upstream amplification and the Scandi trough.

As i said earlier the ECM operational has been in the top end of the members for the last few days which shows that it is struggling this week, If the BBC are wrong then there are gooing to be some very red faces, fingers crossed though.

[andymusic]

With the ECM probably being wrong as early as monday, I think that could cancel out the Northerly shown sweeping south into scotland during thurs/fri, if it can't even nail T+72 hours then it has no chance with T+144, so as much as I love the look of the arctic blast, I have serious doubts it will develop as shown. The meto/bbc are amazingly bullish about the easterly next week and it's staggering that neither the gfs or ecm are, what on earth is going on

What if the BBC and Meto are now using a brand new computer model that we can't see/access! - It seems this past two weeks they have been amazingly bullish about two situations now (last wednesday's snow and the easterly coming up next week) that technically speaking have been very hard to forecast - or we can't see (especially last week with the 5 day warning of snow which they got absolutely nailed on) - before that incident last week they had been floundering all over the place - seems very curious to me that all of a sudden they've either got a new "tea boy" who they've let loose with the forecasts or new mega scientist who really knows his stuff or a new computer model!

[yamkin]

What if the BBC and Meto are now using a brand new computer model that we can't see/access! - It seems this past two weeks they have been amazingly bullish about two situations now (last wednesday's snow and the easterly coming up next week) that technically speaking have been very hard to forecast - or we can't see (especially last week with the 5 day warning of snow which they got absolutely nailed on) - before that incident last week they had been floundering all over the place - seems very curious to me that all of a sudden they've either got a new "tea boy" who they've let loose with the forecasts or new mega scientist who really knows his stuff or a new computer model!

The MetO do have models we do not have access to. After the recent wobbles with the models the public can actually access, let's hope the MetO's human input coupled with their own models prove the E'ly forecast correct.

[damianslaw]

The MetO do have models we do not have access to. After the recent wobbles with the models the public can actually access, let's hope the MetO's human input coupled with their own models prove the E'ly forecast correct.

The Meto is the British chief meteorogical body and the nations prime weather forecaster, they have a huge responsibility and can not afford to make mistakes especially when it comes to short term or nowcasting, they will give very careful consideration to any forecast. So when people say they are being very bullish, don't think that there forecasts have been thought of without due consideration. For this reason you have to respect the Meto, however, much you may dismiss there forecasts especially as I say when it comes to short-term/nowcasting. They talked about Wednesdays snow in Wales/Midlands 4 days ahead and they were right with there prediction in what was a very marginal situation.

There seems to be an air of dismissing and ridiculing the Meto at the moment just because they are not siding with the other models. It seems people only take notice of the ECM and GFS these days which if anything yoyo about the place much more than the UKMO.

Back to the forecasts, I cam see an easterly lasting till tuesday as shown by the UKMO and then for heights to sink south into Europe. As I said earlier too far to call what may happen with respect to any northerly. I'm certainly not writing off a potent northerly later next week as others seem to be doing, I think it is only a matter of time that we see a potent northerly aided by a negative trending AO/NAO upstream teleconnections seem favourable, there may be an initial stutter but eventually we'll get there in early Feb..

[PB22]

You have to laugh, the 18Z GFS brings back more of an easterly on this run:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn721.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn722.html

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

You have to laugh, the 18Z GFS brings back more of an easterly on this run:

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn721.html

http://www.wzkarten....s/Rtavn722.html

I wonder if the gfs has suddenly woken up or whether this is just a fluke.