Model Output Discussion

[Geordiesnow]

Interesting the 18z gfs brings a northerly on eastern coasts starting from thursday when on the previous run it was in the north sea.

The block is making a fight

Yep it does as the high was further westwards on this run, if the high carry on further westwards, the cold air from the first northerly will head further westwards too and so will the airflow with the showers. However i have to say, don't expect any drastic changes regarding the first northerly as it could always be further eastwards if the high is not as further west as being predicted right now.

The northerly on this run topples very quickly, but at least it trended with the euros and not stuck with the trend of the previous GFS run.

[Ben_Cambs]

Judging by the latest model output, I think the N'ly is going to last about 30 hours at best, after that its just going to get toppled...

Edited January 23, 2010 by Snowman0697

[cooling climate]

The GFS is slowly increasing the potency of the northerly and I am even less convinced with the

toppling scenario later on.

Upgrades to come I feel.

[aspire27]

then maybe you can find a dental forum somewhere!!

meanwhile, the NAEFS 12z doesnt upgrade on the 00z and we find ourself between the block and the trough. no sign of the block retrogressing to greenland. in fi it doesnt sink into europe but drifts across us and then drifts ne as the siberian block drifts sw. we end up with blocking to our north from scandi across to iceland. not particularly strong at the moment but we are talking T384!! uppers, predictably repsond by dropping below -5c which isnt bad for such a long range. now i wouldnt pay too much attention to such a long range ens output (GEM/GEFS combined) - however, i note that the extended ecm ens show a majority chunk of runs going into the freezer at the same timescale. hmmm ........

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

thats impressive at two weeks in anyone's language. MMW anyone ????

Good idea. Probably more interesting than the current model output. Just as TEITS said. Nothing in any CURRENT output to get excited about. This is not because some people say we have been spoiled this winter because some regions have not. We live on a very small island and still the weather varies hugely across even 50 miles, which I find fasinating.

[igloo]

The GFS is slowly increasing the potency of the northerly and I am even less convinced with the

toppling scenario later on.

Upgrades to come I feel.

fo sure a better run its always the same with HP near by trying to determine the postion a few days in advance is near inpossible expect lots of changes over the next 2-3 days

[Frosty.]

Judging by the latest model output, I think the N'ly is going to last about 30 hours at best, after that its just going to get toppled...

Well that's an improvement of 6 hours from the 12z so we are heading in the right direction at least.

[Cloud 10]

ukmo120

120fax

Looks like the met office have gone with their own model for tonights 120hrs fax.

The 18z comes up with an alternative to the mild february being touted.

Edited January 23, 2010 by Cloud 10

[Eugene]

Too much reliance on ECM as usual all runs look good for extended cold to me

Why is this so considering we have had the one of the coldest winters for the last 30 years and the fact that for this part of the world February is often the coldest month and for where I live at least it is the snowiest month. Is their any credible scientific basis at the moment to say that February will mild or will at least not be cold considering the winter we have had so far and especially looking at how cold parts of mainland Europe have been which has not been the case in the mild winters of the last two decades?

Because they spend so much time looking at models that model fatigue sets in, my advise take a step back and look at the runs infrequently and see that there is no mild spell on the horizon and that its cold out now, people expect severe cold all winter long when its very rare indeed.

[J10]

A much better GFS with no real sign of any mild weather.

[January Snowstorm]

No, unless the pattern suddenly changes to shift the core of the HP towards Greenland then this will be a blink and you will miss it affair, particularly for the Southern half of the UK. The only way is 'down' for the High after that, and for the first time since early December, we are staring down the zonal gun barrel.

For a change I disagree, the 18z is an improvement

A polar Northwesterly is not without a chance for next wkd

As I often state I am not a fan of high pressure over us and consider them 'time burners' but maybe just maybe small signs it might not stick around for too long

[bluearmy]

No, unless the pattern suddenly changes to shift the core of the HP towards Greenland then this will be a blink and you will miss it affair, particularly for the Southern half of the UK. The only way is 'down' for the High after that, and for the first time since early December, we are staring down the zonal gun barrel.

if you are right ian, i'm not sure how far south it will sink. it might make us its new home beyond the 'toppler'.

[Cheese Rice]

Gfs run looks good to me, below average temps and some snow around, with the northerly upgraded and the high further west. Hopefully we will continue to see the high shift west wards, although I doubt it, mostly because I'm so used to the models downgrading events, I would be surprised if the northerly is upgraded considerably.

I think too many on here have decided to higher the expectations, yes the last two winters have been better than anything over the past 15 years, but that shouldn't raise our expectations, I'm very happy with the current synoptics. Yes it's no snow fest but its not a raging barlet either.

Edited January 23, 2010 by 10123

[cooling climate]

No, unless the pattern suddenly changes to shift the core of the HP towards Greenland then this will be a blink and you will miss it affair, particularly for the Southern half of the UK. The only way is 'down' for the High after that, and for the first time since early December, we are staring down the zonal gun barrel.

The pattern is constantly changing and so will the pattern in bringing in this northerly. I am still very optimistic

that the vortices's in the Arctic will be modeled more favorable to allow the ridge in the Atlantic to ride further

north, with a developing east northeasterly there after.

There is still plenty of room for maneuver and fully expect to see the 0z ECM charts appearing once again.

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z is a great run in FI, not all that believable but surely this remains a distinct possibility? I don't think very mild is destined at all, in fact the reliable just looks fairly cold. After that, the outputs differ, as always. Double figure days returning is not looking all that likely in the next 144 hours, and even after that there's not a huge consensus for anything major prolonged mild spell.

LS

[cooling climate]

The set-up is all wrong I'm afraid; besides which these northerlies in recent years have seen some anomalously warm temps in the Southern half of the UK when they have occurred.

Lol yeah the last two northerlies (the one in December and earlier this month) were real toasties.

[Snowstorm1]

The METO continue to lose credibility; look at the coming week and how many of their forecasts, both national and regional have talked about zero maxima for the coming week. The GFS has never really bought into that and has out performed the METO at every level, and it will be right again.

The set-up is all wrong I'm afraid; besides which these northerlies in recent years have seen some anomalously warm temps in the Southern half of the UK when they have occurred.

Omg this is why you got banned on two because you write this rubbish without even backing up with an fi chart . ALso december northerly was very mild wasnt it not! mate i do respect you sometimes but other times you just base it on whats happenned before dont forget this setup hasnt exactly happenned before which means it wont necasarily happen to what you think.

Sorry mods if i have gone too far but in my books he has and has seriously this time took the biscuit.

[nick sussex]

The METO continue to lose credibility; look at the coming week and how many of their forecasts, both national and regional have talked about zero maxima for the coming week. The GFS has never really bought into that and has out performed the METO at every level, and it will be right again.

The set-up is all wrong I'm afraid; besides which these northerlies in recent years have seen some anomalously warm temps in the Southern half of the UK when they have occurred.

In terms of the models until such time as the GFS overtakes the ECM and UKMO in the verification stats then its no better than the 3rd best global model,they might not be perfect but the verification stats are all we get to see so thats how we judge the models, although the GFS picks the occasional trend it often abandons it goes AWOL and then returns to join the party very late.

Onto the actual UKMO forecasts many of us questioned their forecasts regarding the coming week,however they're much better than many, don't get me started on Meteofrance!

In terms of the overall set up i agree the high is likely to topple but i think its too early to say where it will set up so it could hang around just far enough north for some faux cold!

Edited January 23, 2010 by nick sussex

[January Snowstorm]

Omg this is why you got banned on two because you write this rubbish without even backing up with an fi chart . ALso december northerly was very mild wasnt it not! mate i do respect you sometimes but other times you just base it on whats happenned before dont forget this setup hasnt exactly happenned before which means it wont necasarily happen to what you think.

Sorry mods if i have gone too far but in my books he has and has seriously this time took the biscuit.

A guy gives his opinion that he thinks the outlook is mild and you think he's gone too far

[andymusic]

Right at the end of the GFS 18z run tonight - extreme F I - signs of maybe the greenie high - already talked about on accuweather to affect the USA in the middle two weeks of Feb and bringing them a cold spell with the possibilities of doing the same for us here in the UK! Need to keep watching this - around the 7th Feb!

[Snowstorm1]

Well you can call it instinct or experience, I'm not always right but this is a pattern I'm well versed in. Expect the period Feb 1 to Feb 10 to be the mildest 10 days of the winter thus far CET wise.

A guy gives his opinion that he thinks the outlook is mild and you think he's gone too far

and his intitled to his opinion and if he is right ill give him a pat on the back for this time BUT if he used some charts what show nationwide double figure temps somewere in the time period he suggests then i will not argue this point.

I am sorry for if I offended you Ian it was just the way your post was worded mate so no hard feelings.

Cyclonic happiness Im not witch hunting i was arguing with a point mate.

Edited January 23, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[phil nw.]

Certainly the next week will not be mild and some days will be distinctly below average.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn11417.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn13817.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16217.png

However i think most of us can see that the Northerly is modelled to be a brief one as it`s pushed South East by the flow.

Having said that 18z does show an alternative to Ian B,s blowtorch solution, after the Northerly.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1801.png

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn18015.png

Although the block sinks the jet is on a better NW-SE axis keeping the air colder and more of a PM variety.

Plenty of options going forward.

Edited January 23, 2010 by phil n.warks.

[matt44myst]

I have to say that I agree with the toppler scenario here. Unless pressure builds south out of the arctic, as happened in December, these midatlantic high northerlies rarely last that long. HOWEVER, the fact that the high is being shunted westwards can only be good at upgrading duration and potency of the northerly next week. Also if the jet remains amplified, around the midatlantic high, then even with a positive AO we can see repeated polar maritime reloads as was the case in late autumn and early winter last year.

Interested to see how the subsequent runs develope the westward progression of the high though..

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh god! do we have to go down this road again of slagging of a single member for their opinion?

He ,as much as anyone is entitled to an opinion, can we please stop these silly witch hunts?!

Edited January 23, 2010 by cyclonic happiness

[Lewis]

and his intitled to his opinion and if he is right ill give him a pat on the back for this time BUT if he used some charts what show nationwide double figure temps somewere in the time period he suggests then i will not argue this point.

To be fair, i agree with Ian Brown.

I'm normally one that sits on the garden fence and see what other members post in here... But i've decided to come off the fence.

Firstly mate, the GFS has been under doing temps if anything over the past 5-6 days... It's been a lot warmer

Secondly. We are entering a period where these kind of "Patterns" are expected and if my memory serves me right and experience almost 97% of Northerly's are failures and never become fully established. I think the Northerly will more than likely be a toppy, i also think the pressure rise will be much further East, with any colder air maintained to the east of us.

It's more than likely this is the period where we see systems from the N/NE battling out with the Atlantic. I think the Atlantic will win for a while longer yet.

I still think we will see a "Brief" colder outbreak from the N/NE but nothing sustained. Warming up trend from around the 3rd Feb to around 19th, before it gets cold again

Lewis

Edited January 23, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Duane S.]

some people on here are being incredibly bullish about mild weather in xx days time If there was a strong signal for both (or even either) the NAO or AO to go strongly positive then yes I would struggle to see a good outcome for at least the next 15 days or so but that is not the case.

The 18z, whilst far from perfect is a step in the right direction and not a bad run overall at all. I think we are looking at a meandering HP cell (I would call it a UK high not a Euro high) for a quite a while with interspersed cold snaps of the Northerly variety plus spells of mild(er) days. On the face of it the pattern does look very flat coming off the Eastern Seaboard later on, pretty much all models are showing that but I think we won't have to wait long after that before we see a serious shot of WAA ridging upwards in Mid Atlantic (hopefully far enough East), setting up out next proper cold spell (OK, it's unlikely to be on a par with what we have already received but... who knows). If however we see the likes of the MJO, AO and NAO forecasts turn nasty on us in the next 7 days or so then, yes, we really will be up against it.

I did ask the question earlier but didn't get any replies. Looking at the latest chart it appears that mountain torques over North America are on the increase. Have I read this right and if so will this help improve the Angular Momentum and subsequently the jet pattern?