North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Still plenty of potential in the GFS this morning, but like recent weeks it always seems to be a week away then never quite happens.

Still some potential later this week, but next Monday looks ideal on the 06z, with heavy snow moving up into our area, staying over us for a good while before slowly clearing. Looks like an all snow event probably for all levels.

This will change on every run but if the 06z happened, we would most likely get a good dumping!

[Jeckers]

Some very interesting model output for the whole region for next Monday, could be very interesting indeed if that comes off!

Still a long way off though but I will be closely watching the outputs from now on!

[Deep Snow please]

I hope that chart above comes off but you can trust the charts that far ahead unfortunately. If its still showing on Friday night its possible but if it's still there on Saturday night then I'd give it 95% certainty. However I don't think it will come off although I will keep an eye on those charts.

[Deep Snow please]

This threads quiete

[snowmackem]

Where is everybody?

Obviously not lamp-post watching eh?

Do you all get the feeling that we here in the North East are being ignored by the weather gods recently?

Sbow in Cumbria,snow in Scotland, snow in the Midlands and the South East. What about us?

This pesky low sure is eating up the days, wish it would bugger off and give us a favourable draw. I really can't see anything for us until after the weekend,and even then it's FI, lets hope for upgrades for our area soon (don't know where they will come from in the current set-up). Didn't think I'd be saying this but I would rather have a stormy wet period over the current boooorrrriiiinnngg dreary rubbish.

Karl

[Deep Snow please]

Snowmackem, all we need is the low to drift a couple of hundred miles south or north either away the edges of the arc will cover us and best of all it will just be use, not SE, NW, North Scotland and if it stuck there we'd get some significant snowfall. However back to reality its looking as if Mondays the earliest we'll get anything significant. Unless showers on Saturday night escalate.

[snowmackem]

Snowmackem, all we need is the low to drift a couple of hundred miles south or north either away the edges of the arc will cover us and best of all it will just be use, not SE, NW, North Scotland and if it stuck there we'd get some significant snowfall. However back to reality its looking as if Mondays the earliest we'll get anything significant. Unless showers on Saturday night escalate.

Agreed DSP, but as ever, to underline my point, even Saturday is FI in the current set up, let alone Monday. Having said that, no point being totally negative eh, things can appear out of nowher, and that is all we can hope for for at least the next 96 hours. Ho hum !!

Karl

[Snowstorm1]

Why is every1 negative a bit? is it me or can i see a snow event on thursday?

[Cloud 10]

Why is every1 negative a bit? is it me or can i see a snow event on thursday?

Thursday looks good for some snow according to the 18z NAE.

[Snowstorm1]

Thursday looks good for some snow according to the 18z NAE.

Bllomin hell i predicted that before it came out lol ! Im the weather god! :lol:

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Also looking good on the latest GFS run...

Would be nice to get another fresh covering

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thursday's event looks like being sleet/rain at low levels, could be snow above about 200m I reckon.

Friday and the weekend look like having a showery westerly regime, most of the showers will be in the west but with low pressure on top of us and the sun being a little stronger at this time of year, there will probably be a scattering of afternoon showers to the east of the Pennines as well, due to solar heating increasing the chances of some of the showers making it across plus even a few homegrown ones.

[Tucco]

The second half of this winter has failed to deliver much in the way of snow bar the Northerly which effected more eastern parts. No wonder its quiet in here. Bar the odd few cm's in next few days there's nothing of great interest. Stats maybe coldest winter on many years but the gulf between this winter and the historic winters of the past feels huge.

[Snowstorm1]

So what the chances of snow for overnight? how much possible etc ?

[peterf]

chill out folks,there's no point in getting excited about things if they arnt comming.

now where is the first signs of spring lol.

[Alex95]

So what the chances of snow for overnight? how much possible etc ?

Low ground

Falling: 60%

Sticking: 30%

Depth: 0-2cm

High ground

Falling: 80%

Sticking: 50%

Depth: 0-3cm

Within 5-10 miles of the coast

Falling: 40%

Sticking: 10%

Depth: 0-1cm

Edited February 17, 2010 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Low ground

Falling: 60%

Sticking: 30%

Depth: 0-2cm

High ground

Falling: 80%

Sticking: 50%

Depth: 0-3cm

Within 5-10 miles of the coast

Falling: 40%

Sticking: 10%

Depth: 0-1cm

Im 10miles from the coast apparently so not bad but the band is dying a death ?

[Cheese Rice]

Looking at the precipitation probably the further north the better (Harrogate) as I still think the band will intensify, GFS shows this nicely. Probably the southern extent of the band is likely to intensify, so areas like Sheffield is likely to see the band intensify over them.

ATM the band does look crappy with loads of light patchy precipitation but I'm pretty sure it will intensify, so anyone who has given up don't.

The area highlighted in Green is the main area which I expect to intensify, the Orange area is another area which could take a few by surprise as this is all part of the same front so this could also intensify and the patchy PPN in the Orange area is likely to increase in size and merge with the green area to give a wider area of snow (or rain), I doubt very much that the band in the green area is only going to be that size, looks too thin.

Edited February 17, 2010 by 10123

[kold weather]

Front is rather weak at the moment, still the odd moderate burst in there but looks like York is mainly going to get just the light stuff from the looks of the radar unless it peps up, heavier stuff heading close to the Hull region as well it seems looking at the radar.

Will be interesting to see if it strengthens like the GFS suggests, not really doing it at the moment.

Also worth noting the front has focused the rain much further east then the NAE, much closer to the 12z GFS which does give the credence to GFS.

[Cheese Rice]

The band looks to be intensifying, compare 5:45PM to 6:15pm around Nottingham. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[Snowstorm1]

That band has intensified and grown. Now heading for us temp and dew point have been steady all night at 1.7C and dew at 1C but now dropping to 1.5C and dew point 0.8C atm so if it keeps dropping there maybe some fun.... now temp 1.4C and dew point 0.7C

Edited February 17, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[kold weather]

Yep the band sure has strengthened in the last few hours, now quite a decent line of moderate returns, I'd imagine the band will have cooled enough now so that in any of those moderate bursts we should be seeing snowfall and probably settling. Nothing too extreme but it all helps!

[Snowstorm1]

Yep the band sure has strengthened in the last few hours, now quite a decent line of moderate returns, I'd imagine the band will have cooled enough now so that in any of those moderate bursts we should be seeing snowfall and probably settling. Nothing too extreme but it all helps!

Id take a cm or two happily ill just be glad to see it on the ground again temp now 1.2C and dew point 0.5C and precipatation aint reached yet.

Now temp 1.1C and dew point 0.4C were this precipatation?

Edited February 17, 2010 by Snowstorm1

[snowmackem]

Very light snow here atm. It took it's time getting here, I bet there were some people staying up through the night waiting for it. If you are one of them, enjoy your sleep.

Fairly benign weekend coming up, not much happenning up here, again, all the action is down South.

Monday could be fun and games however, Met O site now says heavy snow here Sunday night, Monday daytime and nighttime.May se a good few cms from that, of course it's a few days away yet so plenty of time for change.

Karl

[Tucco]

Very light snow here atm. It took it's time getting here, I bet there were some people staying up through the night waiting for it. If you are one of them, enjoy your sleep.

Fairly benign weekend coming up, not much happenning up here, again, all the action is down South.

Monday could be fun and games however, Met O site now says heavy snow here Sunday night, Monday daytime and nighttime.May se a good few cms from that, of course it's a few days away yet so plenty of time for change.

Karl

A few flakes here aswell. Might have to wait till March for anything interesting. Feb has been pretty boring really.