Model Output Discussion:

[bluearmy]

The ECM evolution between 96 and 120 hours look very suspect to me, I can't at all see how it would get from the point 96 hours to the point at 120 hours, a bit progressive in my opinion.

in which case, dont look at the GEM which does a very similar thing stephen. two odd models ??

the T192 is fab. upper high cut off to our north and a sort of squashed rex block in our longtitude. which is going to get to us first? the deep upper cold pool to our east or the undercut from the west ???

[TEITS]

I now I ahouldn't be saying this and I know some will moan at me for ramping. However if the +216 verified members such as Steve M, Tamara would be snowed in!

[SP1986]

Not really Stephen if you looked at my earlier drawings. The very simple reason why we're seeing this change is between +96/+120 we see the energy from the atlantic trough transfer SE rather than NE.

Personally at this stage im not that bothered what the models show beyond +144. I would just prefer to see the trend between +96/+120 maintained. As I said a few days ago if you get the blocking in the right place the cold upper temps have to back W.

I understand where you're coming from but I remain very very sceptical.

If this had moved forward to within 48 hours by Friday I will believe it. Until then I assume it's variation, however I like many other were expecting the models to latch back onto the easterlies, however I don't expect them to deliver.

For the record this isn't pessimism, I actually frankly don't mind how it turns out, if it's snowy then great, if it's mild and drizzly and windy then also great

[Nick L]

I know it is a million miles away, but what a turnaround, +216 is absolutely gorgeous...

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

in which case, dont look at the GEM which does a very similar thing stephen. two odd models ??

the T192 is fab. upper high cut off to our north and a sort of squashed rex block in our longtitude. which is going to get to us first? the deep upper cold pool to our east or the undercut from the west ???

im suprised you asked that question on the 192h chart nick,the cold train is full steam ahead on ecm as early

as 120h.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my golly what a beast for middle of next week! wont come off, but expecting a toned down version, all 3 models now agreeing on continental air and cold from the 7th

[Alex95]

Of course ECM FI has gone on a 1947 rampage

Not that it matters too much, +120 and +144 aren't deep FI, they could still change, but I think generally the trends are being planned out. From the +144 chart a severe cold spell would be inevitable, I think if by Wednesday charts for Sunday and Monday are still similar to what they are now its game on, regardless of FI.

[SP1986]

in which case, dont look at the GEM which does a very similar thing stephen. two odd models ??

The very same question could have been last week, at one stage you could have said "was it four odd models and ensemble data sets?"

[bluearmy]

not sure how different the 12z ecm is in evolution to the feb 2009 'event'. the upper cold pool that reaches us T216 is the remnants of the north norwegian trough energy that many have moaned about recently. would be ironic if that verified.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I know it is a million miles away, but what a turnaround, +216 is absolutely gorgeous...

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

SNOW!!!!

[bluearmy]

The very same question could have been last week, at one stage you could have said "was it four odd models and ensemble data sets?"

at t96 stephen??? i dont think so.

[Duane S.]

What a crazy old week of chart watching. We've had some up and downs (aka the rollercoaster) many many times before but this one is pretty unprecedented in terms of the extremities of the model swings.

Now, I know as well as the next person that NOTHING is even close to being nailed, not even a trend but I have to say that I feel a bit of a pillock to be honest because for the past two weeks I had been saying Northerly followed by an agonising mild spell then an Easterly. There will have to be a mild spell to get to the Easterly I said on several occasions, don't push the panic button! Then I go against all of that early yesterday morning (after those 00z's and previous bad runs from the UK MET) and say that the game's up, the GFS had it wrong and we are in for much longer than I anticipated mild spell!

Of course, such has been the nature of the past 10 days or so that still may well be the case! But it certainly looks a lot rosier today

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

the 12z ecm at T144 is quite a different scenario to the 00z. the 00z had the block to our north cut off from the normal high pressure belt to our south, of which the ah is a part. the 12z shows the block to our north at T144 to be an extension of the ah.

No the ridge extends south from the north. This pattern developing and developing quickly as per solar forcing signals is nowt to do with the AZH.

BFTP

[Alex95]

Just for fun, the +240 chart shows the beasterly continuing, but high pressure moves from Svalbard towards Greenland, probably setting the UK up for more bitter cold. I'm not taking FI as a gospel or anything before someone complains, but surely it must be significant that several '1947 FIs' have turned up lately?

[Bobby]

Another Hollywood run from the ECM, what a chart this is:

[chionomaniac]

What I like this run is that not only do I think it fits in with the background signals but that after the 240 chart I suspect that a cracking NEasterly would be on the way as a trough drops into Scandi and the -NAO block backs west. Well it is a possibility!

[bluearmy]

its a tricky one, but given the 12z gem and ukmo, i've decided i prefer the ecm 12z to the 00z.

now i did post yesterday about discussing what the models showed rather than what we thought they might show if they tweaked about a bit. ramp away, as long as you can cope with it all falling apart by thursday!!

[cold snap]

Okay if we take last weeks situation is the main difference this time that UKMO are more on board?

Or have i missed somthing

[Bobby]

Seeing that high migrating to greenland and setting up shop up around there is a thing of beauty.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Barb-

[Alex95]

its a tricky one, but given the 12z gem and ukmo, i've decided i prefer the ecm 12z to the 00z.

now i did post yesterday about discussing what the models showed rather than what we thought they might show if they tweaked about a bit. ramp away, as long as you can cope with it all falling apart by thursday!!

Not tricky to me, the 0z would give another Jan '10 cold spell, whilst the 12z would be a 1947

[PB22]

Much improved output this evening, and I personally would be more confident now of a cold spell developing again than I have been at any point in the last few days. Despite this, there is a long, long way to go and we need to see this trend continued over the next few days as things can change so much in 24 hours, as we have seen recently!

[Altostratus]

The 216hrs chart sure is a thing of beauty – slider low allowing the shortwave to back up and open the flood gates – textbook stuff. Obviously subject to change but it’s nice to see such an evolution be churned out.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

its a tricky one, but given the 12z gem and ukmo, i've decided i prefer the ecm 12z to the 00z.

now i did post yesterday about discussing what the models showed rather than what we thought they might show if they tweaked about a bit. ramp away, as long as you can cope with it all falling apart by thursday!!

Jesus nick dont say that !!

I think another near miss will have me heading for the bottle.

[J10]

Comparing today's ECM 12HZ with yesterday's 12Hz is possibly the biggest upgrade seen in the models. Even though at ECM T+72, it seemed clear that the pattern was far better and helpfully this trend will be continued with with no further U-turns.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Much improved output this evening, and I personally would be more confident now of a cold spell developing again than I have been at any point in the last few days. Despite this, there is a long, long way to go and we need to see this trend continued over the next few days as things can change so much in 24 hours, as we have seen recently!

BBC Oxford weather at 1900 confirmed turning colder next week, very much in line with what the latest models are showing.