Model Output Discussion:

[Mark Bayley]

A brilliant ECM, if we can get T96 to T144 to verify the rest should follow! Hopfully the GFS will slowly trend towards it, as the colder air takes longer to get to us. Certainly a change from yesterdays models!

Here's a few of my favorite charts

lol

Saturday

Today

Edited February 1, 2010 by mark bayley

[yamkin]

The Met. Office outlook is quite a contrast to yesterdays, I hope the models start to agree with each other it's been 1 hell of a rollercoaster week on here. I hope posters will not get overexcied this time until we have all the models agreeing at t-120 and a more relaxed approach is taken until we have something more solid in the blocking then we can al do a Yamkin only joking there. My gut feeling well I don't want to tell you at this early stage like TEITS says going to hang back a little on this until the right time.

UK Outlook for Saturday 6 Feb 2010 to Monday 15 Feb 2010:

A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK during the first weekend with south or southeasterly winds probably reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time and this is most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend, although rain or showers will continue in places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the week and into the second weekend. Temperatures likely to start around normal, but probably becoming rather cold or cold, especially in the east.

ECM 12Z is amazing tonight. Looks like the low out in the Atlantic was being too progressive at one stage. I am looking forward to upgrades during the coming days :)

I live a few miles from Steve Murr, so I'll be on standby before he faints tonight after viewing 216h & 240h charts

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Much improved output this evening, and I personally would be more confident now of a cold spell developing again than I have been at any point in the last few days.

Well Paul, considering that went down to zero confidence with the mild outcome your choice that isn't difficult is it?

Hopefully taken in the spirit it is meant.

BFTP

[TEITS]

As some will probably be saying we're looking at F.I again I shall quickly remind everyone that the key period is +96/+120.

When I viewed this mornings ECM I did wonder whether this might be a rogue run. However we can clearly see the 12Zs have taken this a step further. This for me is very important because we need to see tomorrows 0Zs continue with the trend of the energy going SE at +96.

If the +168 ECM arrives at +72 then the very cold E,lys have to back W.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

I suspect tonights +120 fax chart will be rather different. I agree with Tamara due to the UKMO/ECM output the chances of an E,ly have probably increased compared to when only the GFS was showing this last week. However no assumptions from me just yet because I want to see some consistency.

What I like this run is that not only do I think it fits in with the background signals but that after the 240 chart I suspect that a cracking NEasterly would be on the way as a trough drops into Scandi and the -NAO block backs west. Well it is a possibility!

Spot on CH because thats exactly what would happen if the ECM continued.

Edited February 1, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[cooling climate]

You really would be hard pressed I think to draw a colder and snowier chart for the UK than

the one at t240. Maximum temperatures in the range of -4 to -5c I would think.

In fact from t192 to the end of the run would bring copious amounts of snow I would have

thought.

[bluearmy]

Jesus nick dont say that !!

I think another near miss will have me heading for the bottle.

some of the more sober members will realise that this is the fourth consec week that an easterly is shown to affect us the following week on output beyond T144. enjoy the ride but dont tear up your tickets incase you need a refund <_<

CC, i commend you on your courage in holding firm over the weekend (although you did wobble a bit yesterday). of course, we may be in the same situation again next week. i recall a couple of good ukmo charts at t120/t144 last week.

the difference this time is, i think, the greenland height rise rather than scandi/siberia. the last two cold spells have come from greenland height rises - the third promises to have the same cause initially although the block looks to be further east beyond. if this starts to come to fruition, i wonder if we'll see the pattern back further west as the atlantic becomes even weaker than the models currently show.

Edited February 1, 2010 by bluearmy

[John Snow]

some of the more sober members will realise that this is the fourth consec week that an easterly is shown to affect us the following week on output beyond T144. enjoy the ride but dont tear up your tickets incase you need a refund <_<

Exactly

ATM it is just eye candy, refuse to get excited about it, it is still appearing at +96 then I will start getting excited but 10% chance of verifying IMO as this sort of thing has shown up so many times in FI and not happened

Will it get colder ? Yes Will there be an E or NE of sorts ? Probably is 1947 going to be revisited ? no chance

[PB22]

Well Paul, considering that went down to zero confidence with the mild outcome your choice that isn't difficult is it?

Hopefully taken in the spirit it is meant.

BFTP

I think I have been bitten too many times by the mild winters of the 90's and early 00's! I tell you, this game should come with a health warning! <_<

The ECM ensembles will be interesting later to see if the cold trend is picked up further.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Paul B

[nick sussex]

Good grief what a rollercoaster! i'm exhausted... But even now it's hard to have too much faith in the output because of the last week, i've never known anything like it, one positive here is its the ECM and UKMO in agreement at 120hrs and not the GFS!

I suppose we could say all the models have been close to imploding but although the UKMO was too progressive it had the trend right. I really should listen to my own advice in future, for European blocking patterns we must have the UKMO on side with the ECM, no matter what the GFS says.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

some of the more sober members will realise that this is the fourth consec week that an easterly is shown to affect us the following week on output beyond T144. enjoy the ride but dont tear up your tickets incase you need a refund <_<

That won't be necessary. The evolution is looking spot on. Its not about the easterly, its about the jet kicking south [and that will happen] and the block to N/NNW holding allowing NE'ly and then an easterly feed.

BFTP

[cooling climate]

some of the more sober members will realise that this is the fourth consec week that an easterly is shown to affect us the following week on output beyond T144. enjoy the ride but dont tear up your tickets incase you need a refund

CC, i commend you on your courage in holding firm over the weekend (although you did wobble a bit yesterday). of course, we may be in the same situation again next week. i recall a couple of good ukmo charts at t120/t144 last week.

the difference this time is, i think, the greenland height rise rather than scandi/siberia. the last two cold spells have come from greenland height rises - the third promises to have the same cause initially although the block looks to be further east beyond. if this starts to come to fruition, i wonder if we'll see the pattern back further west as the atlantic becomes even weaker than the models currently show.

Yes I admit when I saw the early morning models I thought that was it but I was having trouble

coming to terms with the fact that all the signals and indices were crying out for a very cold

retrogressing pattern to develop. Then when the afternoon runs and the 12z ECM run came out

I new the battle was not over.

I must admit to being as surprised as almost everyone else I think at seeing just how much the

ECM had flipped come this morning.

Its bitterly cold and snow all the way now in my book no more messing around lol.

This February will make this winter one of the true greats, I really believe that too.

Edited February 1, 2010 by cooling climate

[MR EXTREMES]

You really would be hard pressed I think to draw a colder and snowier chart for the UK than

the one at t240. Maximum temperatures in the range of -4 to -5c I would think.

In fact from t192 to the end of the run would bring copious amounts of snow I would have

thought.

although excellent chart its way into fi and is very unlikely to happen.

but the strangest thing about todays models is a complete turn around from yesterdays but last week was what we were seeing tonight.

only problem i have is gut feeling tells me theres more to this and could well flip back to mild but the next couple of days we will no more.

i also confused as teleconnections dont really support this 100% ssw event 14 to 28 days to take effect,

also we have a west based neg nao,

although pv better placed so its all very messy im happy today.

but very very skeptical.<_<

id also like to add greenland block souds very unlikely to me but scandi area maybe.

Edited February 1, 2010 by badboy657

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As some will probably be saying we're looking at F.I again I shall quickly remind everyone that the key period is +96/+120.

Dave I disagree. It is the 72-96 period that is key. The angulation of the LP at t72 is tilted NW/SE...that is the key time.

BFTP

[snowray]

My oh my, what a difference a day makes. I had lost all hope I must say on the Beasterly, well done to those who stuck to their guns, very brave indeed!

The ECM would produce lots and lots of cold and snow for the whole of the UK starting from next Monday, a strong Easterly wind would make it feel very cold and this would continue to the end of the run and into Friday, brrrrrrrrrr! Followed most probably by cold, dry and very crisp conditions for Skying up Shooters Hill a' la SM.

Interesting, If I remember right, back in December the same thing happened with that Easterly, GFS was all for it, particularly the "run du Parallel" which took over on the 15th, then it all disapeared only to come back again after a couple of runs with full agreement by all the models. I sincerely hope that after the recent rollercoaster of epic proportions that the ride might be finally over and that we can end up on a high! <_<

Edited February 1, 2010 by snowray

[The PIT]

Interesting all models toying with the idea of the block coming back in FI to deep FI. Again since it's FI to deep FI in the next run it could all go again.

The azores high ridging does seem to be the key and all players seems to have this happening just outside the reliable time frame. So close so lets see if this happens first.

Edited February 1, 2010 by The PIT

[John London]

I now I ahouldn't be saying this and I know some will moan at me for ramping. However if the +216 verified members such as Steve M, Tamara would be snowed in!

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?01-0

Hello Mr. Eye In The Sky. I haven't got a clue about all this weather modelling, but I do like to watch you all getting excited, and then depressed it's great fun. Would you be so kind as to tell me if that +216 number above means 9 days from now? If it does could you tell me what percentage of these charts at that timescale actually produce the weather conditions they have predicted?

[cold snap]

Good grief what a rollercoaster! i'm exhausted... But even now it's hard to have too much faith in the output because of the last week, i've never known anything like it, one positive here is its the ECM and UKMO in agreement at 120hrs and not the GFS!

I suppose we could say all the models have been close to imploding but although the UKMO was too progressive it had the trend right. I really should listen to my own advice in future, for European blocking patterns we must have the UKMO on side with the ECM, no matter what the GFS says.

Edited February 1, 2010 by cold snap

[nick sussex]

Okay if we take last weeks situation is the main difference this time that UKMO are more on board?

Or have i missed somthing

No you're right, last week the UKMO didn't want to know about the early stages to get to the easterly and this in hindsight was crucial, I think if its one run thats okay as long as it comes on board the next but the UKMO refused to back down over several days. The GFS as we've seen was the worst of the lot by being the slowest to pick up the trend then went completely overboard once it picked up the renewed energy out of the eastern USA.

[Tom D]

JMA looking tasty tonight.

+72

+96

+120

Very similar to the ECM at +96

The low near Scandinavia at +120 on the ECM is deeper than any other model, and this moves down eventually giving the easterly we see on the same model - but no other models show it so deep, so don't expect the easterly to be as strong as shown there.

Edited February 1, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[guitarnutter]

Here we go again!

[beng]

GEM has now also backtracked towards an E,ly.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-144.png

If that chart verified around +168/+192 you would find the trough to the W weakening with the cold upper temps backing W.

Like Tamara says the difference how the models are handling this trough is incredible. As Tamara correctly states the UKMO had mild SW,lys into Scandinavia. Incredible stuff really which rarely occurs within +144.

Actually it wasn't just UKMO - I distinctly remember commenting 2 days ago on the ECM blasting away embedded cold from Scandi (which has been there for 2 months at least now) in just 24 hours and saying it was ridiculous run that had no chance of happening.

I think there's a lot of room for improvement in the weather models in respect to their progressive nature in regards to long standing surface cold; it's also fairly obvious that they're struggling with both the stratospheric warming and MJO wave in the tropics too. To be fair they are up against a combination of circumstances that possibly hasn't happened for 20 years or so, but it does rather indicate that they still fall short when it comes to handling old school weather patterns.

<_<

[Terminal Moraine]

Dave I disagree. It is the 72-96 period that is key. The angulation of the LP at t72 is tilted NW/SE...that is the key time.

BFTP

I'll second that. The fax chart is a little slower in achieving this than either GFS or ECM but, looking at the fax' for 120hrs,you can see the front stalling over southern Scotland as pressure builds from the north east. The next stage would be the weakening front being forced back south westward and the area of low pressure tilting NW/SW.

The next couple of sets of fax charts will be very interesting, particularly in view of the latest noises about cold coming from the Met' Office.

[billy]

That won't be necessary. The evolution is looking spot on. Its not about the easterly, its about the jet kicking south [and that will happen] and the block to N/NNW holding allowing NE'ly and then an easterly feed.

BFTP

Some great looking charts tonight and IF they verify it would be hats off to you Blast for sticking to your guns and not buying the mild outcome that was showing on yesterdays runs. Lets hope the models stick with the trend in the morning. Would love to see an old school easterly before the spring.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

The next couple of sets of fax charts will be very interesting, particularly in view of the latest noises about cold coming from the Met' Office.

I'm sure they would have been a lot of noise in Exeter over the weekend and today lol, I hope the UKMO remains stable in the next 48 hrs.

[kpm62]

Actually it wasn't just UKMO - I distinctly remember commenting 2 days ago on the ECM blasting away embedded cold from Scandi (which has been there for 2 months at least now) in just 24 hours and saying it was ridiculous run that had no chance of happening.

I think there's a lot of room for improvement in the weather models in respect to their progressive nature in regards to long standing surface cold; it's also fairly obvious that they're struggling with both the stratospheric warming and MJO wave in the tropics too. To be fair they are up against a combination of circumstances that possibly hasn't happened for 20 years or so, but it does rather indicate that they still fall short when it comes to handling old school weather patterns.

I agree,regarding the weather models being so uncertain.Basically there are so many variables to consider, the accuracy just goes out the window .No amount of sophisticated weather software ,no matter how advanced it is, can make an accurate assessment of weather patterns beyond a week,and that is being generous.High energy pressure systems that we have seen develop can change the whole nature of forecasting.Just consider how much the models have changed in the last few hours let alone the last few days.I think to look beyond 2 or 3 days models with any confidence is very questionable.