Model Output Discussion:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

touch and go if ecm at T144 can get the second undercut due to the ridge sw iberia. with such a 'fine line' on this, i rekcon the favourite at this juncture would be the UKMO evolution at T144. however, tomorrows runs may well downplay the ridge which will enable the second undercut. i'm not second guessing the ecm run, just saying how i see the situation T120-T144 currently with the iberian ridge being 'a player' of some significance.

T 144 is superb, block well established, not going to go beyond really as it is all happening within T120. Looking within this timeframe and the 'anticipated' changes are well afoot now, like I said I was patiently waiting for Monday 12z....those of little faith

BFTP

Edited February 1, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

the 12z ecm at T144 is quite a different scenario to the 00z. the 00z had the block to our north cut off from the normal high pressure belt to our south, of which the ah is a part. the 12z shows the block to our north at T144 to be an extension of the ah. we need to get the jet through to the sw to undercut the blocking and cut off this block, advecting the cold westwards more easily. not sure this is possible with the pattern evolving on the 12z ecm.

[chionomaniac]

I think that we are just beginning to see some correlation between the runs and the background signals which I felt had become displaced over the weekend. There will still be changes between the runs but I would suspect that we may just see a little less drastic divergence from now.

[TEITS]

OMG +168 is frankly stunning.

Sit back, have a cup of tea and enjoy +192/+216.

[Alex95]

The +168 chart is amazing!!! the next frame will almost certainly show a beasterly, but the +168 chart isn't far from the holy grail, loads of northern blocking easterlies setting up shop from Russia to the southern tip of Greenland!!! Have to say, this is like a good old traditional easterly, the +120 chart isn't unlike the archive chart from the 3rd Feb 1991, and if the ECM came off just to +120 I'd fully expect a very good easterly to follow.

[cooling climate]

Fantastic, best realistic possible solution from ECM at 144T and the 168 shows what would cetaintly follow.

Very good ECM tonight just frmo the 144 and 120 charts.

That is the great thing the building blocks are there at t120-144 and at the end of the

day if the UK ends up covered in -12 850's ice and snow then 99.9% of us are happy.

Just seen the t168 chart, couldn't ask for more.

Edited February 1, 2010 by cooling climate

[stratty]

...........still that date - 8th Feb - could be interesting!!! A stonking ECM I feel

[Duane S.]

+144 on the ECM and there is only one way after this. Lovely ridge upwards into Greenie clearing the way underneath

[MR EXTREMES]

oh my thats a better chart, t144

although i have a sneaky feeling this chart is under doing the alantic low.

but a very good cart and if this happens then game on,

im skeptical because none of the other charts have really shown this type of setup.

but then again from the very start of the ecm outputs you could clearly see it was heading in the right direction.

also within the realiable time frame.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although I thought the models were overdoing the Atlantic yesterday, I didn't expect a backtrack as rapid as we've seen from ECM and to a lesser extent GFS today- even UKMO has backtracked a fair amount. A cold dry, but at times possibly wintry, February is once again looking quite a realistic possibility- though with the way the models have been flipping about recently I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some "milder" runs appearing again tomorrow!

[Buxton Codge]

Good 12z output this evening. Probably faulty data caused yesterdays hiccup

[Duane S.]

Yep, +168 is indeed a beauty. Almost back to the charts we were having 4 days ago. Incredible.

[The Eagle]

OMG +168 is frankly stunning.

Sit back, have a cup of tea and enjoy +192/+216.

Look's ok but beware of that area of HP to the Southwest. Possible spoiler.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think that we are just beginning to see some correlation between the runs and the background signals which I felt had become displaced over the weekend. There will still be changes between the runs but I would suspect that we may just see a little less drastic divergence from now.

That exactly what I meant in terms of being happier about prospects this time around too,

The ECM at t168 is amazing! The next few of frames could be quite entertaining!

[FENDER.]

Just fantastic, almost back to where we were 3 days ago.

[Southender]

[Just Below Zero]

OMG +168 is frankly stunning.

Sit back, have a cup of tea and enjoy +192/+216.

I like you earlier said to myself I wasnt going to look past T144, but its a little like eating chocolate hobnobs you just cant help looking at another chart....and another....and another

Edited February 1, 2010 by Just Below Zero

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

That exactly what I meant in terms of being happier about prospects this time around too,

The ECM at t168 is amazing! The next few of frames could be quite entertaining!

very exciting tamara im very excited by tonights ecm could jay wynne be the man??

[SP1986]

The ECM evolution between 96 and 120 hours look very suspect to me, I can't at all see how it would get from the point 96 hours to the point at 120 hours, a bit progressive in my opinion.

[Snowyowl9]

Yes, it seems like a big backtrack, but I guess we are being spoiled to see all these atlantic continental battles which the models have always found difficult to evaluate. We just haven't seen so many of them in recent years

This winter is just outstanding for undercut lows.

I think this chart is significant,it`s changed alot battle between cold air to the north and south.

Low is further south.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.gif

Scotland won`t be seeing any mild this winter the way it`s going to thaw there lying snow.

ECM is just pure gold.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

These short term I`m looking at more now cold air won`t be beaten as easy as all that.

[Mark Bayley]

And here she comes, i to am surprised at how quick the models of have changed! But then again should we really be surprised?

and at T216

Edited February 1, 2010 by mark bayley

[TEITS]

The ECM evolution between 96 and 120 hours look very suspect to me, I can't at all see how it would get from the point 96 hours to the point at 120 hours, a bit progressive in my opinion.

Not really Stephen if you looked at my earlier drawings. The very simple reason why we're seeing this change is between +96/+120 we see the energy from the atlantic trough transfer SE rather than NE.

Personally at this stage im not that bothered what the models show beyond +144. I would just prefer to see the trend between +96/+120 maintained. As I said a few days ago if you get the blocking in the right place the cold upper temps have to back W.

Edited February 1, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Altostratus]

Good run from the ECM if you like cold. It was obvious where this run was heading given the T+144 chart. A lot can and will change between now and then so no means a done deal. Something to boost morale if nothing else.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Although I thought the models were overdoing the Atlantic yesterday, I didn't expect a backtrack as rapid as we've seen from ECM and to a lesser extent GFS today- even UKMO has backtracked a fair amount. A cold dry, but at times possibly wintry, February is once again looking quite a realistic possibility- though with the way the models have been flipping about recently I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some "milder" runs appearing again tomorrow!

I'm preparing myself just now lol, its always good to get your well balanced thoughts on the runs, I'm afraid I'm sitting on the fence also. Wow its amazing how things have changed but I thought something must be wrong because of a certain poster on the boards from the B.B.C. kinda like reading in between the lines of his posts.

[Harsh Climate]

Just as I said yesterday, a mild zonal februrary is very unlikly. With the telleconections in great shape, an El nino year and variouse other factors I DONT THINK SO Expect around the 9/10th for the atlantic to be pretty much blocked

Im not going for a big snowy easterly, mid februrary, just a blocked cold outlook, with a light easterly/north easterly feed.. with perhaps a few wintry showers in the east.. After that I certainly wouldnt rule out one big blast/cold spell before winter winds down

It was funny yesterday, 24 hours of poor charts and we get 'the rest of winter will now be dominated by mild southwesterlies', '18C by the end of next week' Some people really have a lot to learn...

Edited February 1, 2010 by Jed Bickerdike