London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[Lazarus]

Yep we just had the gritters go past here too Lazarus, went for a nice long walk around the edge of Hawkinge this afternoon...lots of snow laying still. I'd say 4-6 inches still

Heh... had to shovel loads of that in your Crematorium up there Fri. Back amongst it tomorrow!

[wee]

Well we had a bit of snow about 9.20ish this morning and it started to lay,but then it stopped and whilst watching my boy play football at 2.30 this afternnon it was just sleet and rain mixed in,Does anyone know what is in store for the next few days?

[wee]

Just looked at the metoffice warnings and they say there is a chance of heavy snow in Brighton and hove plus lots of other areas on tuesday and wednesday but when you click on the map and look at the weather it shows rain???????????? can anyone explain why they dont show snow on the map but are predicting we will get snow on the warnings???????? sorry very confused.com

Edited February 14, 2010 by wee

[Guest FireStorm]

I dont look at the graphs - I'll read the alert and make my own mind up from there. Probably rain to snow OR rain with mixed in heavy snow or they could be covering their own bottoms (lol)

Edited February 14, 2010 by FireStorm

[Snowy Bob]

Heh... had to shovel loads of that in your Crematorium up there Fri. Back amongst it tomorrow!

We've still got about 3-4 inches of the stuff still lying in our garden up in the north of town here. Paths were bloody icy, walking my mother into work this morning.

[thegreat316]

Prime example of how rain being forcasted turns into a snowstorm. Lived most my life in dallas, wish i was there, mum was bragging about it the other day :-) .

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-snowforecast_13met.ART.State.Edition2.4c0a770.html

[Lazarus]

We've still got about 3-4 inches of the stuff still lying in our garden up in the north of town here. Paths were bloody icy, walking my mother into work this morning.

Yep... just crunched into town and back. All pavements still with 2"-4" re-frozen ice / slush. Huge piles of snow still on the road, side roads still completely covered. It'll take a while till things get back to normal here!

[yamkin]

Prime example of how rain being forcasted turns into a snowstorm. Lived most my life in dallas, wish i was there, mum was bragging about it the other day :-) .

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-snowforecast_13met.ART.State.Edition2.4c0a770.html

Interesting link. The end of their post says it all:

The thing that most amazes him about Thursday's storm is the amount of snow that fell with temperatures at or above the freezing point.

"You'd expect it to be colder than that for 11 to 12 inches of snow to accumulate," he said.

"The official forecast was for the rain-snow line to go through Dallas," Ulrich said, "but the cold air wrapped in much farther south than anticipated. And the snow fell a lot longer."

This must be what the MetO here are basing the advisory warning on for the SE on Tues/Wed.

[thegreat316]

Interesting link. The end of their post says it all:

The thing that most amazes him about Thursday's storm is the amount of snow that fell with temperatures at or above the freezing point.

"You'd expect it to be colder than that for 11 to 12 inches of snow to accumulate," he said.

"The official forecast was for the rain-snow line to go through Dallas," Ulrich said, "but the cold air wrapped in much farther south than anticipated. And the snow fell a lot longer."

This must be what the MetO here are basing the advisory warning on for the SE on Tues/Wed.

It really shows how even in a marginal set up, IF all the factors go in your favour somthing amazing can occur.

if just one thing is out of place, it turns into a non event.

"It came together in such a way that even the most aggressive computer model fell well short of predicting the bountiful snowfall. And snow, by its very nature, magnifies forecast shortfalls."

[yamkin]

It really shows how even in a marginal set up, IF all the factors go in your favour somthing amazing can occur.

if just one thing is out of place, it turns into a non event.

"It came together in such a way that even the most aggressive computer model fell well short of predicting the bountiful snowfall. And snow, by its very nature, magnifies forecast shortfalls."

This is where the MetO's human touch comes into play. Even Peter Cockroft on Friday had heavy snow for Tuesday. The stalling ppn and the intensity is something the MetO must be basing their warning for the SE on Tues/Wed. It will be interesting if they still have the warning in place for the SE tomorrow.

Will Hand mentioned this scenario occurring on Tue/Wed a few days ago and has not backed down on his forecast.

On the 21st December 2009 we had heavy rain quickly turning to heavy snow. This is a prime example in heavy intensive rain cooling enough to fall as snow which was not forecast beforehand.

Edited February 14, 2010 by yamkin

[thegreat316]

This is where the MetO's human touch comes into play. Even Peter Cockroft on Friday had heavy snow for Tuesday. The stalling ppn and the intensity is something the MetO must be basing their warning for the SE on Tues/Wed. It will be interesting if they still have the warning in place for the SE tomorrow.

Will Hand mentioned this scenario occurring on Tue/Wed a few days ago and has not backed down on his forecast.

On the 21st December 2009 we had heavy rain quickly turning to heavy snow. This is a prime example in heavy intensive rain cooling enough to fall as snow which was not forecast beforehand.

I remember that in 2009 was stuck in a london car park, wouldent let us out because of the intense snowfall.

the snow line keeps moving further south east. was the spine of the country, then the east side, now just the S.E E.A. Bit worried that it will be moved further east out of our region completly.

If the front stalls into northern france and doesent back track, we could miss out.

will be alot happier if the meto advisory is still their tomorrow night. :-)

Edited February 14, 2010 by thegreat316

[yamkin]

I remember that in 2009 was stuck in a london car park, wouldent let us out because of the intense snowfall.

the snow line keeps moving further south east. was the spine of the country, then the east side, now just the S.E E.A. Bit worried that it will be moved further east out of our region completly.

will be alot happier if the meto advisory is still their tomorrow night. :-)

Charts for the 21st Dec 09 did not even show snow, so don't worry about the chart you have posted. MetO are using their human experience regarding the advisory warning for Tues/Wed. I too will be a lot happier if the MetO's warning is still there tomorrow.

[thegreat316]

Charts for the 21st Dec 09 did not even show snow, so don't worry about the chart you have posted. MetO are using their human experience regarding the advisory warning for Tues/Wed. I too will be a lot happier if the MetO's warning is still there tomorrow.

Good point, just saw Nicks post in the model forum, hope he doesent mind if i post it in here

"Regarding the situation for snow Tuesday into Wednesday its quite a complicated set up and this chart shows why:

http://www.weatheron...V=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

To the se over France and the Low countries the dew points are much lower and its where the front stalls and begins to push back further west that the initial snow chance is, as this front pushes back west a surface feed develops from the Continent, at the same time you have relatively cold air heading south, areas along the front with heavy precip could see this change the rain to sleet and snow but the greatest risk isn't actually where the coldest upper air is,the front is expected to weaken hence I can understand why the far se is the area mentioned as highest risk as this is likely to have the heaviest precip and greatest chance to see those lower dew points before the front weakens. However even though its only 48hrs away the boundary between the PM and continental air is still open to some change either way."

nick sussex

Will be good if i can see you excited one more time this winter. This forum bursts into life when yamkin is excited :)

[yamkin]

Good point, just saw Nicks post in the model forum, hope he doesent mind if i post it in here

"Regarding the situation for snow Tuesday into Wednesday its quite a complicated set up and this chart shows why:

http://www.weatheron...V=0&ZOOM=0&WMO=

To the se over France and the Low countries the dew points are much lower and its where the front stalls and begins to push back further west that the initial snow chance is, as this front pushes back west a surface feed develops from the Continent, at the same time you have relatively cold air heading south, areas along the front with heavy precip could see this change the rain to sleet and snow but the greatest risk isn't actually where the coldest upper air is,the front is expected to weaken hence I can understand why the far se is the area mentioned as highest risk as this is likely to have the heaviest precip and greatest chance to see those lower dew points before the front weakens. However even though its only 48hrs away the boundary between the PM and continental air is still open to some change either way."

nick sussex

Will be good if i can see you excited one more time this winter. This forum bursts into life when yamkin is excited :)

NS won't mind you using his post here. I can see why the MetO are using their human experience regarding NS's post. I can see myself getting excited a few more times as the cold is here to stay for now.

Edited February 14, 2010 by yamkin

[stun12]

It does seem to be abnormallly cold. Still got snow because it never reached over 2c today. Even though clouded over, it refroze stuff overnight. So we do we order extra bread and milk yet for next Tuesday? Our local shop was the only place locally which had bread and milk in the January event because I listened to you people instead of the weather forecast, and we quadrupled our order in good time. Great snow day that day though (Saturday 09-Jan?), and the shop was fully stocked. Wish we owned it, just the missus looking after it for a couple of weeks. Nice to have stiff in stock for the community.

Good work chaps!

[Helvellyn]

definitely quite chilly out there. skies cleared somewhat and the wind has died. very calm out there.. now down to -3

[snowray]

The warnings are still up this morning, the BBC are talking about rain/sleet with snow on the hills, seems as though there is more uncertainty. The graphics show that the front does not get as far SE as was expected, in fact it starts to move west quite quickly by the look of things, and the band of PPN is much narrower.

Interesting that yesterday evening they were only going out to Tues 3pm, this morning they are only going out to 2pm, so I wonder if they remain unsure about the evenings prospects. Even NAE this morning dont have a T48 chart, bit strange.

Edited February 15, 2010 by snowray

[thegreat316]

The warnings are still up this morning, the BBC are talking about rain/sleet with snow on the hills, seems as though there is more uncertainty. The graphics show that the front does not get as far SE as was expected, in fact it starts to move west quite quickly by the look of things, and the band of PPN is much narrower.

Interesting that yesterday evening they were only going out to Tues 3pm, this morning they are only going out to 2pm, so I wonder if they remain unsure about the evenings prospects. Even NAE this morning dont have a T48 chart, bit strange.

I saw that too. Looking at the unreliable GFS 6z, it shows the band of ppn not getting as far S.E. My fear yesterday was it getting to far S.E looks like the oppiste may occur.

As the PPN band comes south it will most likly be of rain, we needed it to pass over us and backtrack, as it backtracks we get a cold feed from europe, giving us a surface cold. If the band does not get far enough S.E then only those in the north west of our region will see snow for any period of time.

[MAF]

Met Office warnings were issued yesterday morning, i think you will see that they change some time mid-morning. although as to whether they remain a snowy warning for the SE i really cannot say

[Harry]

I saw that too. Looking at the unreliable GFS 6z, it shows the band of ppn not getting as far S.E. My fear yesterday was it getting to far S.E looks like the oppiste may occur.

As the PPN band comes south it will most likly be of rain, we needed it to pass over us and backtrack, as it backtracks we get a cold feed from europe, giving us a surface cold. If the band does not get far enough S.E then only those in the north west of our region will see snow for any period of time.

Our turn again!!

Edited February 15, 2010 by Harry

[Kentspur]

Our turn again!!

What do you mean by our turn again? north west as in Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire and north west London only I'm guessing, when I was at university in Hertfordshire, they always used to do well out of these situations, down here in N/W kent no chance!!! I bet it's sleety rain again!

Edited February 15, 2010 by Kentspur

[thegreat316]

What do you mean by our turn again? north west as in Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire and north west London only I'm guessing, when I was at university in Hertfordshire, they always used to do well out of these situations, down here in N/W kent no chance!!! I bet it's sleety rain again!

That was only what the GFS was looking like, dont trust the GFS ppn though.

The NAE is showing the band only turning to snow as it backtracks towards the midlands.

Guess we will wait and see what the met office advisories say later

[Weathizard]

That was only what the GFS was looking like, dont trust the GFS ppn though.

The NAE is showing the band only turning to snow as it backtracks towards the midlands.

Guess we will wait and see what the met office advisories say later

Meto have taken their warnings away

[Kentspur]

That was only what the GFS was looking like, dont trust the GFS ppn though.

The NAE is showing the band only turning to snow as it backtracks towards the midlands.

Guess we will wait and see what the met office advisories say later

Thanks for your reply, Im new to this site, as you can probably tell by the amount of posts, I hope the GFS is wrong in that case! we have had less snow than any other region of the south east this winter as I said yesterday!

[thegreat316]

Meto have taken their warnings away

Indeed, As shown on the NAE the band does not get as far south and it only starts to pull in the colder feed as it gets ito the midlands. Still the north east of our region has a chance of some snow.

London & South East England: Buckinghamshire Milton Keynes Oxfordshire Heavy Snow Wed 17 Feb There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting central and eastern parts of England. Rain will readily turn to snow early on Wednesday and will become heavy at times. This will lead a risk of accumulating snow with 3-6cm possible, especially over higher ground. Snow will gradually die out later.

Issued at: 1014 Mon 15 Feb

Things can still change, but less likly to see snow in the southern half of our region

Edited February 15, 2010 by thegreat316