London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[Guest FireStorm]

I've got my eye on what happens afterwards which could be infinitely more interesting with the north sea convection machine cranked back into operation!

I would post this in the model discussion but it appears there are toys being thrown from prams again so ill post it in the safety of our regional thread.

Would you be focusing more on the end of next week by any chance? Fax charts, UKMO and ECM all going for a low pressure sliding roughly SSW across the country lining up **POSSIBLE** Easterly straight from the continent North Sea Convective Machine), then North-Easterly winds as it clears away plus, if ECM FI is to be believed turning into a very decent looking Northerly after?

Edited February 14, 2010 by FireStorm

[Lazarus]

Have a read of JH's post http://forum.netweat...ost__p__1773840

and his updated blog http://forum.netweat..._gopid__1773791

Ahaa! Not downdraughts but actual cooling of the airmass by evaporation. Got it!

[nanu]

I would post this in the model discussion but it appears there are toys being thrown from prams again so ill post it in the safety of our regional thread.

Amazing init!! its like kindergarten at times in that place, soon as they see that its not gonna snow in their area they throw a wobbly at the ppl who are saying "but its gonna happen in mine"... "no your wrong.. You cant have it if i cant have it" etc etc

[Guest FireStorm]

Amazing init!! its like kindergarten at times in that place, soon as they see that its not gonna snow in their area they throw a wobbly at the ppl who are saying "but its gonna happen in mine"... "no your wrong.. You cant have it if i cant have it" etc etc

It is a shame - But I personally dont care for trouble on an internet based forum. Forum has report buttons, it has an ignore feature. If people wish to end up with restrictions and bad feelings - good luck to them I feel sorry for the Mods

[Weathizard]

Amazing init!! its like kindergarten at times in that place, soon as they see that its not gonna snow in their area they throw a wobbly at the ppl who are saying "but its gonna happen in mine"... "no your wrong.. You cant have it if i cant have it" etc etc

Storm force lewis/Ian Brown are the main culprits, they constantly goes on about this supposed SE bias, I despair with the model thread sometimes.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Weathizard

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I would post this in the model discussion but it appears there are toys being thrown from prams again so ill post it in the safety of our regional thread.

Would you be focusing more on the end of next week by any chance? Fax charts, UKMO and ECM all going for a low pressure sliding roughly SSW across the country lining up **POSSIBLE** Easterly straight from the continent North Sea Convective Machine), then North-Easterly winds as it clears away plus, if ECM FI is to be believed turning into a very decent looking Northerly after?

I've just compiled a reply to you about this but, dippy mare that I am, I somehow deleted it when trying to press the send button

The period in question is from next week i think. It is unlikely to happen before then. But the air to our north east is much colder this Feb than it has been in recent years and the weather patterns are suggested to stay very wintry well into March I think. The models are tending to overstate the northwards extent of low pressure this winter and I think we will find that through this week, especially later, we will see some very interesting model output for reasons given in the model thread recently

I think that the ECM has been hinting, as you say, at something like this for the last day or two. It is something that I think the models more generally will return to over the coming days. There is plenty more ammunition for high pressure blocking to come and the stratosphere forecasts (into the tropopshere) are certainly sufficently supportive of a Svalbard arctic ridge through Scandinavia and such an easterly following.

Sorry this is a less detailed response to the one I had intended to provide!

edit: nick sussex has just given a very good summary of what I am also thinking on the model thread

Edited February 14, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Jayces]

Soooo, we're back on for snow now, what's the % chance we will get settling snow?

And no Yamkin that last 'dusting' doesn't count

[Hammer]

Storm force lewis/Ian Brown are the main culprits, they constantly goes on about this supposed SE bias, I despair with the model thread sometimes.

You can be sure that both Storm and Ian Brown will be monitoring this thread, as well as the 3 Counties and EA thread. No doubt ready to chime in, if things change and preparing attacks on TEITS and others.

This morning was absolutely classic, TEITS posting his view, Storm and Ian dismissing it out of hand, telling TEITS to stop clutching straws and to basically bugger off to a seperate thread, and then the Met Office, updating almost word for word as TEITS had suggested based on the latest data available.

Then followed the moderators, deleting posts in support of TEITS and the EA & SE, whilst allowing both Storm and Ian to continue with their nonsence about a bias towards the hugely populated EA & SE.

For the weather ahead early next week, then consider looking at the NAE, rather than the GFS in the 48 hour time frame.

At the moment, there looks like a reasonable chance that our region will have some decent snow falling, accumlations a little difficult to tell at the moment.

[danm]

Bren on TWO posted this very informative analysis of what may happen on Tues/Weds:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/p/31684/904554.aspx#904554

[thegreat316]

^^^^

Agree completly.

with them two and even noobs such as snowballz mocking him think he will soon leave this great forum or stop posting. Hope not!

back to the weather. had drizzle here last night and today. Glad the advisorys came out for our region and included b+h and iow. usually these are not included if meto think it will be just rain on the coasts.

wow that was a great summary by Bren, thanks for bringing that to my attention DanM

Edited February 14, 2010 by thegreat316

[Guest FireStorm]

lol @ deleting post.. More caffeine needed?

stratosphere forecasting I have no idea on but yes, That low would still pick up a SE-ly or Easterly

If we do drag the colder NE air towards our shores that would easily become modified over the North Sea

Theres some good height rises over Greenland too which would support Northern Blocking. Incredibly interesting time and would also follow suit with the recent snowstorms that happened in America. Seems a week or 2 after USA has something, UK follows suit (on a generally lesser scale id like to point out before this is seen as a snowramp lol)

[jojobut]

lol @ deleting post.. More caffeine needed?

stratosphere forecasting I have no idea on but yes, That low would still pick up a SE-ly or Easterly

If we do drag the colder NE air towards our shores that would easily become modified over the North Sea

Theres some good height rises over Greenland too which would support Northern Blocking. Incredibly interesting time and would also follow suit with the recent snowstorms that happened in America. Seems a week or 2 after USA has something, UK follows suit (on a generally lesser scale id like to point out before this is seen as a snowramp lol)

lol Thankgoodness! Imagine if we had the amount they got!!

I keep thinking that about America that we seem to get their leftovers

Edited February 14, 2010 by jojobut

[kold weather]

Bren on TWO posted this very informative analysis of what may happen on Tues/Weds:

http://theweatherout...554.aspx#904554

That posts certainly is a good un, it shows how the ECM/UKMO are somewhat more favourable then the GFS, which suggests mainly a rain set-up, whilst the ECM/UKMO is that bit more favourable. That therefore explains why the UKMO have probably outted the risk for snow. It also outlines the possiblity that the front won't get as far SE as expected and thats once again a risk, as is the fact the models could be overdoing the fronts strength as it heads into the drier air that is present further SE.

Gotta admit this wintry everything interesting thats happened has occured right when I'm away from uni!

[Guest FireStorm]

lol Thankgoodness! Imagine if we had the amount they got!!

I keep thinking that about America that we seem to get their leftovers

I Think there is a definite pattern about America's weather and then ours, And would like to patent an idea ive had for a few yrs so wont go into details

We dont need to imagine how it would be for the UK to experience such scale of snowfall as per Washington for e.g.

2-3inches here seems gives the same effect as epic snowstorms in the US. no trains, buses, schools closed, panic buying

[jojobut]

I Think there is a definite pattern about America's weather and then ours, And would like to patent an idea ive had for a few yrs so wont go into details

We dont need to imagine how it would be for the UK to experience such scale of snowfall as per Washington for e.g.

2-3inches here seems gives the same effect as epic snowstorms in the US. no trains, buses, schools closed, panic buying

Being Generous hehe 1-2 inches more like lol

[Guest FireStorm]

I was thinking cm's to be honest but went for inches as the mrs always complains about measurements

[West Sussex Kate]

any chances of a few snow showers after dark in these parts tonight?

[crazysnowcatz4]

Just to make a final point on alledged SE bias. One has to remember that the Southeast is much the most heavily populated area of the country, if we add London + SE we have 26% of the entire population , so obviously there will be more posts from these areas, and people will tend towards a bias towards their own area. I suppose one could also suggest that if one looks at the risk factor calculation a snow event say thay may have a 25% chance of disrupting 16 million people (0.25 x 16mill =4million ) is likely to have more impact than one with 75% chance of effecting 2.5million ( 0.75 x 2.5million = 1.625 million ) people. No less important for the individuals concerned of course.

Snow in Canterbury almost gone now from ground ,still small patches on lawn.

Edited February 14, 2010 by crazysnowcatz4

[wee]

Hi guys,can anyone fill me in on what to expect over the next few days here in Brighton? Have seen the met office have said snow on tuesday night but does anyone have any veiws as to how much snow if any we may get? Thanks

[Guest archiesmummy]

Hi all

Well as a complete novice and just very interested in all types of weather, I have been looking on the forums and the different sites and it seems Will's prediction is actually very good, I know Yamkin rates his forecats so thats a good start but if you look at what he said on 9th Feb what is starting to materalise is looking good...snow and rain moving up from SW on a deep low with heavy snow poss Tues/Weds and then the Midlands being affected there after.

I know the BBC could just be completing a back and lower region coviering excerise but its still something to be watching out for and getting excited about!

i say...."BRING IT ON!!!!!"

Edited February 14, 2010 by archiesmummy

[Cheese Rice]

Interesting to see a Meto warning for you guys tomorrow, will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Atm I'm going for 1-3cm on low ground and 3-7cm on high ground.

[crazysnowcatz4]

Got Country file on as the 6.00 news forecast went out a whole 24hrs wow !.

[Lazarus]

Clear skies, dropping temps and the gritters just went by outside! Still three inches cover where untouched!

[lottiekent]

Yep we just had the gritters go past here too Lazarus, went for a nice long walk around the edge of Hawkinge this afternoon...lots of snow laying still. I'd say 4-6 inches still

[snowray]

Well looks like Im spending my afternoon in Biggin Hill then lol! And it seems your right Mr Erith, I don't think theres anywhere thats been worst off for snow this winter in the south east than our little area of kent/se London, and possibly areas just the over side of the Thames.

Referring back to my previous post about Central London getting more snow than us this winter, the snow event on 13th January is the best example. I left Dartford for work in the morning and a bout an inch of snow, every stop on the way in to central London on the train appeared to have a little more snow. Bexleyheath more than Dartford, Lewisham more than Bex,heath and so on at Charing Cross I saw the most around 3inches I'd guess!! So I'm guessing areas in north and west London had even more!!

Well rained on and off all day here SK, cant see us getting much tues/wed either but you never know.

Yup, this area is infamous for its lack of decent snowfall, we usually need a good sustained Easterly, not NEly, or Nly, or NWly. And at the end of the day, it would snow everywhere with an Easterly in the SE anyway. What we need is a decent channel low, then we'd be in business!