London And Southeast Cold Spell Discussion

[Shunter]

Thoroughly miserable, cold,dark & damp morning here....

We've had Rain, Sleet, Snow, Ice crystals and snow/hail pellets at different stages this morning. Temp is hovering around 1c.

[Kentspur]

Rain here as well with the odd wet flake or two, join the club, harder to get snow out of a stone than in Erith!! It realy gets on my nerves when people say that they have had lots of snow all winter and people shouldn't winge........as if its been the same everywhere.

Yet again, areas further South have kept the coldest air but the main band of PPN is moving South through central/and West of London. Saw it was snowing heavily at Gatwick, imagine higher ground around Surrey, Sussex, Hamps will see some snow this morning, East Kent looking mainly dry although they might get a few more snow showers tonight in E Kent.

And guess what, more marginal stuff to come next week. Will it wont it!???

Thanks for that report, I suspected that Biggin Hill would have snow. (Up the hill like)

Well looks like Im spending my afternoon in Biggin Hill then lol! And it seems your right Mr Erith, I don't think theres anywhere thats been worst off for snow this winter in the south east than our little area of kent/se London, and possibly areas just the over side of the Thames.

Referring back to my previous post about Central London getting more snow than us this winter, the snow event on 13th January is the best example. I left Dartford for work in the morning and a bout an inch of snow, every stop on the way in to central London on the train appeared to have a little more snow. Bexleyheath more than Dartford, Lewisham more than Bex,heath and so on at Charing Cross I saw the most around 3inches I'd guess!! So I'm guessing areas in north and west London had even more!!

[charlton north-downs]

Well looks like Im spending my afternoon in Biggin Hill then lol! And it seems your right Mr Erith, I don't think theres anywhere thats been worst off for snow this winter in the south east than our little area of kent/se London, and possibly areas just the over side of the Thames.

Referring back to my previous post about Central London getting more snow than us this winter, the snow event on 13th January is the best example. I left Dartford for work in the morning and a bout an inch of snow, every stop on the way in to central London on the train appeared to have a little more snow. Bexleyheath more than Dartford, Lewisham more than Bex,heath and so on at Charing Cross I saw the most around 3inches I'd guess!! So I'm guessing areas in north and west London had even more!!

Snow now stopped but temps 0.05c be quick because I dont think the snow is here for the day. Cheers

We have have had snow settling for 8 days out of 14 in Feb -but it does not last for long. Its purely altitude which makes a massive difference

Next week should be very interesting for the South East and I hope we all get snowed in for a day -like Feb last year. :winky:

[GoonerGregg]

Far, far to marginal for SE I'm sad to say.

You'll find any hopes of snow will diminish come tomorrow afternoon in forecasts.

We may see Sleet, and the odd Heavy burst of wet snow. Our best hope is for Tuesday night, as by day, any snow will turn back to rain, as temps are likely to rise to the dizzy heights of 5c to 6c degrees.

Best forgetting this cool spell, it's been hugely downgraded from it's original potential from last week, despite it snowing it most parts, only resulted in dustings really, and rapid melt.

[Weathizard]

Far, far to marginal for SE I'm sad to say.

You'll find any hopes of snow will diminish come tomorrow afternoon in forecasts.

We may see Sleet, and the odd Heavy burst of wet snow. Our best hope is for Tuesday night, as by day, any snow will turn back to rain, as temps are likely to rise to the dizzy heights of 5c to 6c degrees.

Best forgetting this cool spell, it's been hugely downgraded from it's original potential from last week, despite it snowing it most parts, only resulted in dustings really, and rapid melt.

Not what TEITS thinks on the output discussion, he thinks EA & SE could see significant snow at the start of the week.

BEEB predicting heavy snow for London area Tuesday and Wednesday..

Edited February 14, 2010 by Weathizard

[k66yla]

Just had a brief snow shower here, melted within minutes.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Snow now stopped but temps 0.05c be quick because I dont think the snow is here for the day. Cheers

We have have had snow settling for 8 days out of 14 in Feb -but it does not last for long. Its purely altitude which makes a massive difference

Next week should be very interesting for the South East and I hope we all get snowed in for a day -like Feb last year.

Well I've done pretty damn well then - at my relative 'non altitude'!

Cold and cloudy this morning. Patchy snow cover from Weds night and Thurs is still here - the thawing was considerably halted during the course of yesterday and there has been another frost overnight.

Chance of some temporary snow for some areas early this week - but I've got my eye on what happens afterwards which could be infinitely more interesting with the north sea convection machine cranked back into operation!

[Weathizard]

Well I've done pretty damn well then - at my relative 'non altitude'!

Cold and cloudy this morning. Patchy snow cover from Weds night and Thurs is still here - the thawing was considerably halted during the course of yesterday and there has been another frost overnight.

Chance of some temporary snow for some areas early this week - but I've got my eye on what happens afterwards which could be infinitely more interesting with the north sea convection machine cranked back into operation!

BBC predicting it to be 8C here after midweek, wouldn't any convection fall as rain?

[MAF]

am totally confused over next weeks potential. is London too far south or are we looking at getting some snow Tue/Wed

*yes, before you all say it, i get confused really easily

[kentishchris]

Snowing in Maidstone - trying hard to lay - but nothing much showing up on the radar- weird?

[charlton north-downs]

Well I've done pretty damn well then - at my relative 'non altitude'!

Cold and cloudy this morning. Patchy snow cover from Weds night and Thurs is still here - the thawing was considerably halted during the course of yesterday and there has been another frost overnight.

Chance of some temporary snow for some areas early this week - but I've got my eye on what happens afterwards which could be infinitely more interesting with the north sea convection machine cranked back into operation!

Sorry what I meant is any marginal situation height makes a difference Your snow was different(lucky people) as you were in much colder air which was not marginal in East Kent-If your colder air had spread it would have given wide-spread snow even to Central London. Folkestone photos were brilliant and we were all hoping it was going to spread further North to London. Jealous course we were. Hope we all enjoy a nice snow day next week.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

BBC predicting it to be 8C here after midweek, wouldn't any convection fall as rain?

I think that after Mon and Tues it does look like chances of any snow reduce for the region, but I wouldn't use the BBC predictions for temp as a guide. they suggested 6C for round here this weekend and that simply has not happened!

[Charltonkerry]

Snow in Dartford I wish!! we've had less snow than even central London this year!! All I've seen up East Hill part of Dartford this morning is sleet and rain, I'm guessing your in a rural part of the borough?

No east hill, even My mum had snow and she overlooks the fishing lakes down Princess Road.

[Guest]

I actually think the warning for the SE is pretty much justified, if people would just look at the charts from time to time

[kold weather]

This is a VERY tough call for the early week, nothing screams out to me that this wil lbe a snow exclusive type of event, instead I see a real mess, at times during the overnight hours conditions probably will be the right side of marginal, in the day any snow turns back to a sleety mix away from maybe the higher ground in the region...

For some the main story may well end up being rainfall totals...there wil lbe some snow in there of course but I don't see anything that suggests there will be anything on the ground so if you don't stay up overnight you probably won't see anything more then maybe the odd flake here and there in the sleety mix...IMO of course!

[Coast]

*yes, before you all say it, i get confused really easily

:blush:

My gut feeling is tomorrow night into Tuesday morning Mick with somme parts at the top end of our region going on into Tursday midday.

It's currently snowing in Eastbourne, not very heavily, but it does show that conditions are still favourable (temp 2.6 Dgc Dewpoint 0.4 DgC)

[yamkin]

Not what TEITS thinks on the output discussion, he thinks EA & SE could see significant snow at the start of the week.

BEEB predicting heavy snow for London area Tuesday and Wednesday..

Heavy sleet here earlier on.

MetO has an advisory warning of heavy snow for the SE on Tues/Wed http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Staying cloudy and rather cold on Tuesday and Wednesday with further rain at times and a continuing risk of some snow in places. Sunshine and showers on Thursday.

Updated: 0341 on Sun 14 Feb 2010

Will Hand the chief weather forecaster at Haytor wrote the following: http://groups.google.co.uk/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_thread/thread/8f44e661ff45ceee?hl=en&pli=1

I stand by my forecast. Models are converging on 528DAM thickness line being

near the south coast with sub -3C or lower 850 hPa temperature in low

circulation. Allowing for low pressure and ascent that is cold air. Any

moderate or heavy precipitation in the south will readily turn to snow.

Light precip. may still rain. From Midlands northwards most. precip will be

snow, perhaps sleet right on coasts. All high ground above 200m asl will

have snow nationwide. NW'ly jet will force ascent on its cold side over UK.

Southward moving air initially will increase absolute vorticity causing

convergence and ascent. Mass ascent will cause heavier precip., hence quite

a lot of snow around. Deep instability will increase risk of convection from

relatively warm seas, especially in the SW giving potentially very heavy

localised snowfall with high ground most prone. Once the main polar jet

starts to move north again then a deep low could spin up near southern

Britain giving a blizzard risk but no idea yet when that might happen. That

is the meteorology without much reference to specific model output!

Edited February 14, 2010 by yamkin

[kold weather]

The precip heaviness is whats going to be key I suspect for our area early next week, we need as heavy precip as we can, in any light precip I suspect rain will be the main ending place however in any heavier bursts your going to see the temps drop enough to make it the right side of marginal.

[West Sussex Kate]

*claps* this is all great news.....keep a level head though everyone !!

(Happy Valentines!!! :blush: I LOVE the snow!)

[yamkin]

The precip heaviness is whats going to be key I suspect for our area early next week, we need as heavy precip as we can, in any light precip I suspect rain will be the main ending place however in any heavier bursts your going to see the temps drop enough to make it the right side of marginal.

JH also mentioned this to me yesterday. By the way, a few weeks ago we had heavy rain which turned to sleet then heavy snow for an hour. This caught out everyone at the time.

[Lazarus]

JH also mentioned this to me yesterday. By the way, a few weeks ago we had heavy rain which turned to sleet then heavy snow for an hour. This caught out everyone at the time.

Forgive a newbie question... but is this just the heavier ppn literally dragging colder air from aloft? Rain induced downdraughts of cold upper air causing the ppn to remain as snow all the way down instead of melting en route?

[nanu]

all you got to do is look at 21st dec 2009, rained most of morning to mid afternoon then the heavy precip hit us, that just fell as snow, caused widespread choas. Bromley,croydon,lewisham traffic all at stand still, 3inches fell in a few hours before it turned back to sleet as it moved off. We even had thunder in that!!

[MAF]

My gut feeling is tomorrow night into Tuesday morning Mick with somme parts at the top end of our region going on into Tursday midday.

It's currently snowing in Eastbourne, not very heavily, but it does show that conditions are still favourable (temp 2.6 Dgc Dewpoint 0.4 DgC)

Cheers mate

by the way. you on the beer already? or having finger trouble

[MAF]

The precip heaviness is whats going to be key I suspect for our area early next week, we need as heavy precip as we can, in any light precip I suspect rain will be the main ending place however in any heavier bursts your going to see the temps drop enough to make it the right side of marginal.

hey KW, perhaps you should keep this image to use mate

seems the marginality is giving everyone a headache. i think i will be more vigilant with the radar and keep checking stats over Tuesday as i am with the likes of JH who think this may just be a high level event and us at lower levels may not see much snow in the PPN. if it is just rain, it looks like we will still see some heavy PPN

[yamkin]

Forgive a newbie question... but is this just the heavier ppn literally dragging colder air from aloft? Rain induced downdraughts of cold upper air causing the ppn to remain as snow all the way down instead of melting en route?

Have a read of JH's post

and his updated blog http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61410-will-it-snow-at-low-level-next-week/page__st__17__gopid__1773791

all you got to do is look at 21st dec 2009, rained most of morning to mid afternoon then the heavy precip hit us, that just fell as snow, caused widespread choas. Bromley,croydon,lewisham traffic all at stand still, 3inches fell in a few hours before it turned back to sleet as it moved off. We even had thunder in that!!

I remember the day quite well. We were only meant to get heavy rain then there was heavy sleet then the heavy snow poured due to it's intensity. The same thing looks like happening on Tues/Wed.