Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

Nice little upgrade from the NAE for Northamptonshire tomorrow lunchtime:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/21/basis18/ukuk/prty/10022212_2118.gif

Huzzah!

Graphics are updated, but please note the 'free' raw NAE output you might see on websites is not necessarily reflective of the modified (by UKMO 'human hand' at Exeter Ops Centre and again at BBC Weather Centre) frames we show on BBC. Indeed often they will be quite different in many respects.

The 12z NAE run offered a slightly heavier band of snow around mid-morning through much of the SE Midlands, but the transition to 'proper' snow will be messy and we expect a widespread mix of rain/sleet/snow across a fair swathe, including down to the SE, with the PPN intensity proving very critical for allowing WBFL's to fall through evaporative cooling and allow snow penetration to the deck.

The 12z is also somewhat quicker taking the main low on an ENE track across into southern North Sea, thereafter allowing a cold undercut to propogate southwards and offer a risk of sleet and / or wet snow down into Cambs, Northants, Beds and perhaps the Chilterns towards Monday evening.

Let's see what the next run offers. Albeit I'll see it only at 0400 in work again tomorrow!

Best, Ian

PS: Ice risk tonight is the bigger concern for your region; PPS: snowfall amounts tomorrow in areas affected likely ca. 2-5cm based on NAE prog.

Ta very much for that Ian. Very informative post which I learnt a lot from.

It seems for the south-east of the region at the very least, tomorrow still holds interest.

[Higher Ground]

It seems for the south-east of the region at the very least, tomorrow still holds interest.

How about today in about an hour's time for some surprise early flurries? (see latest radar)

[andy_leics22]

How about today in about an hour's time for some surprise early flurries? (see latest radar)

I have had my eye on that too lol, certainly worth watching.

[NorthantsSnow]

How about today in about an hour's time for some surprise early flurries? (see latest radar)

Well spotted.

Yes, I see it now. A line of initial rain/sleet/snow showers ahead of the main band moving rapidly northeastwards. A second, more extensive cluster lies about 60 miles south of that.

These might give us an indication as to how far NW the main band will end up.

Edited February 21, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Higher Ground]

I have had my eye on that too lol, certainly worth watching.

Too far away from me to be worth staying up for, but i thought it was worth mentioning especially for the guy in Northampton as looks like some moderate intensity in it perhaps, though i suspect it's only temporary. Not sure.

[NorthantsSnow]

Too far away from me to be worth staying up for, but i thought it was worth mentioning especially for the guy in Northampton as looks like some moderate intensity in it perhaps, though i suspect it's only temporary. Not sure.

Thanks for that mate. Well there goes my plans for an early night!

[Bolton67]

Thanks for that mate. Well there goes my plans for an early night!

Good evening Dan!!

Looks like we could be the ''hot spot''

[Higher Ground]

Thanks for that mate. Well there goes my plans for an early night!

Sorry! I thought of that just after posting lol

Trouble is, i'm even tempted to stay up myself as it would be fascinating to watch on the remote offchance that a massively underpredicted pasting gradually evolves out of nowhere.

No, i'll see what's outside the window in the morning......... or maybe just one last radar check..... maybe 2??

[NorthantsSnow]

Good evening Dan!!

Looks like we could be the ''hot spot''

The coldest ''hot spot'' around I think at a teeth chattering -0.4 °C.

BBC forecast looked pretty good for a fair few hours of snowfall tomorrow and the event is now well underway so hopefully no more changes.

Looks like the rain/sleet/snow has arrived in MK going by the radar. Not long now...

[PolarWarsaw]

It seems to me as more runs come to fruition that this week maybe much less snowy than thought perhaps 36 hours ago?

[azores92]

It seems to me as more runs come to fruition that this week maybe much less snowy than thought perhaps 36 hours ago?

basically the usual way, where the weather is more benign than forecast

[NorthantsSnow]

It seems to me as more runs come to fruition that this week maybe much less snowy than thought perhaps 36 hours ago?

Perhaps. Thursday looks potentially very interesting though based on the 18z with potential for around 10cm of snow in the south of this region.

Then we see a very wintry looking low cross the country on Friday/Saturday. Currently we are progged to be on the wrong side of it (rain) but given the trend recently to push things south as we get closer that could also be something to watch out for.

I think though the potential for mega falls which had presented itself at times over the weekend is an idea which the models have abandoned for the time being. That's not to say it won't return - watch for that LP next weekend as it could upgrade. Indeed, prior to that there's still a chance Wednesday could turn out more favourable with one ensemble I looked at earlier suggesting around 36hrs of moderate snow for much of the region!

So I think it's still a bit early to rule anything out. The potential is still there with these lows but it will be marginal and we'll need a bit of luck at times.

EDIT: I think, on reflection, the number of times I referred to "potential" in the post says it all! Probably wise to concentrate on the here and now...

Edited February 21, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[stevomatt]

so is the snow back on for this area tonight/morning ?

[NorthantsSnow]

so is the snow back on for this area tonight/morning ?

Yes! Even the NMM has jumped on board - projecting around 5.6mm precipitation into tomorrow afternoon.

To be honest it's mostly light (moderate between 6am and 7am) but quite stubborn to shift so we should hopefully see another inch or two!

ETA: Eastern parts of the county could fair a whole lot better than that. The NMM would suggest up to 12mm precipitation in Rushden for example, over double what it is projecting for Northampton. 15 miles can make a hell of a difference!

Edited February 21, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[stevomatt]

Yes! Even the NMM has jumped on board - projecting around 5.6mm precipitation into tomorrow afternoon.

To be honest it's mostly light (moderate between 6am and 7am) but quite stubborn to shift so we should hopefully see another inch or two!

ETA: Eastern parts of the county could fair a whole lot better than that. The NMM would suggest up to 12mm precipitation in Rushden for example, over double what it is projecting for Northampton. 15 miles can make a hell of a difference!

so kettering/wellingborough should get a bit more than northampton?, also the little band before main event is that falling as rain/sleet or snow?

[NorthantsSnow]

so kettering/wellingborough should get a bit more than northampton?, also the little band before main event is that falling as rain/sleet or snow?

The further south and east you are the better. Kettering/Wellingborough are further east but also further north so it sort of cancels itself out. Still should see snow though.

Anything which does fall here will almost certainly be snow with ground temps not much higher than 0C and dewpoints at around freezing as well.

Just a small risk that if the precipitation does persist into the afternoon that with rising temps it may turn to sleet/rain on the backedge.

[lesta_snow]

Anyone think that first little band of rain/snow will make it to leicester???

[Nights King]

Looking good for you chaps up north!

If I can see some wet snow this evening (sleet now) then i am sure you will have some fun from this. If only my hills were 100 miles north

[Vince]

well its raining here if thats any help temp of +2.9

[kold weather]

The evolution of the low between Tuesday-wednesday is one that could also provide some surprise, much depends on the time of day it arrives at but once it starts to fall as snow I wouldn't be surprised if it mainly stayed as snow until perhaps the southern edge.

The 18z GFS also very keen on other VERY marignal events on Thursday and briefly on Saturday. The 18z evolution for Thursday would probably be just about as marginal as it gets really, however the strength of the precip would probably swing it IMO.

Still plenty to keep a beady eye on still!

[MKN]

Anyone think that first little band of rain/snow will make it to leicester???

Maybe, one thing thats for sure is the precip is roughly 50miles further north than the nmm model suggested so far.

[lesta_snow]

Maybe, one thing thats for sure is the precip is roughly 50miles further north than the nmm model suggested so far.

I hope so!!

[Rorky_Leicester]

Is there going to be a similiar event to last night in Leicester and what time will this hit?

[kold weather]

Also I'd argue that little frontal feature is also stronger then the models progged, getting a few moderate bursts in it at the moment and where it does snow could see a few cms from that feature alone given the very slow movement.

NMM is real keen though on snow being a little more widespread then the NAE expects and I think thats not a bad call to be honest but we shall see!

[MKN]

I hope so!!

Me to. It might nt be that heavy but at a temp of -1.5 i think a few hours of light snow would provide something at least.