Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[loopydreamer]

cr@p! i'll be at work then! no computers where i work as the only 1 we have is locked in the offfice at night so i wont be able to check!

i'll be totally in the dark with how the model pans out on that run lol!

[Potent Gust]

What time is the rain/snow meant to get here if it does arrive?

[MKN]

What time is the rain/snow meant to get here if it does arrive?

Not a single model output goes for snow here tommorow so i wouldnt worry about it. if anything it might not make landfall at all at this rate.

[mackerel sky]

WTF? Has nobody learned anything - taking each run at face value? The Met Office has taken some knocks this winter but in fairness they seem to have got their act together so far this month. By all accounts the snow risk is still there for tomorrow morning. I can't believe people on here saying 'Well, that's it for winter for me'. Bloody ridiculous comments.

[MKN]

WTF? Has nobody learned anything - taking each run at face value? The Met Office has taken some knocks this winter but in fairness they seem to have got their act together so far this month. By all accounts the snow risk is still there for tomorrow morning. I can't believe people on here saying 'Well, that's it for winter for me'. Bloody ridiculous comments.

I think people are taking the ukmo, ecm, gfs, nae and nmm at face value :wacko:

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm the N-W radar shows the precip more Western placed than I thought it would be.

It is off the coast of Devon and is supposed to move NE but even if it moves NE from where it is now there I would say a fair bit of the Midlands could see some snow from it. Maybe Birmingham, Leicester, Northampton, Coventry, Warwickshire etc... Possibly Nottingham but Notts and Derby look a little too far North for this but we'll see.

Edited February 21, 2010 by andy_leics22

[beccaboo]

WOW!!!!!! What a fantastic walk in the 2" of snow this morning with the dog!!!!!! woke at about 6am to see a little bit of a covering, went back to sleep and woke at 8 to find 2"!!!!! it was brill!! and knowone else had been out in it so it was all lovely and fresh, even the cat came with us for a walk (hilarious!!!)

Its all gone now though with a very quick thaw. And I notice that NW graphics don't show any snow for me over the next few days ah well, I can still hope!!!!!!!

[Serendipity]

I agree Andy, was just coming to post similar. If it follows the predicted track, I think southern midland areas could get clipped.

[NorthantsSnow]

I agree Andy, was just coming to post similar. If it follows the predicted track, I think southern midland areas could get clipped.

Oh, I do hope so.

The weathergirl on Sky News tonight seems to be a bit confused. She spoke about the snow moving into Wales & the Midlands tomorrow with 7cm expected whilst the graphics behind her showed a rain/sleet/snow mix over southern England & East Anglia.

Does not compute!

[Costa Del Fal]

Hmmm the N-W radar shows the precip more Western placed than I thought it would be.

It is off the coast of Devon and is supposed to move NE but even if it moves NE from where it is now there I would say a fair bit of the Midlands could see some snow from it. Maybe Birmingham, Leicester, Northampton, Coventry, Warwickshire etc... Possibly Nottingham but Notts and Derby look a little too far North for this but we'll see.

I think it looks as forecast right now. Doesnt look too different but then again im only quickly looking. Whats everyone elses view?

[NorthantsSnow]

Apparently the BBC are still going for snow in the Midlands tomorrow and have not updated their graphics in line with the NAE earlier. Now that is interesting and might suggest the MetO forecasters have low confidence in that particular outcome and expect the action to be further north than currently indicated.

Might be reading too much into it though. It is a Sunday after all!

[A.J]

Hmmm the N-W radar shows the precip more Western placed than I thought it would be.

It is off the coast of Devon and is supposed to move NE but even if it moves NE from where it is now there I would say a fair bit of the Midlands could see some snow from it. Maybe Birmingham, Leicester, Northampton, Coventry, Warwickshire etc... Possibly Nottingham but Notts and Derby look a little too far North for this but we'll see.

Hello matey, where've you been hiding??....I've heard a rumour that you'd been spotted in wales doing a bit of sheep worrying!...

I agree with you on the snow distribution, and there's far too many people on this thread whinging and moaning again, jeez!...When will people learn?...models are complex algorithmic calculations based on human data entry, in other words, a best guess....Last week should have proved, never take the models as gospel!....It'll all be down to radar watching and looking upwards, and if it doesnt snow, are people on here going to commit suicide?, is it really that disappointing and earth shattering?...of course not, but judging some of the really inane posting going on in here, you'd believe otherwise!

[NorthantsSnow]

If all else disappoints, seek out stellar low-res ensemble run:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-2-24.png?12

There you go. A good chart for the Midlands tomorrow.

[Ian Fergusson]

Apparently the BBC are still going for snow in the Midlands tomorrow and have not updated their graphics in line with the NAE earlier. Now that is interesting and might suggest the MetO forecasters have low confidence in that particular outcome and expect the action to be further north than currently indicated.

Might be reading too much into it though. It is a Sunday after all!

Graphics are updated, but please note the 'free' raw NAE output you might see on websites is not necessarily reflective of the modified (by UKMO 'human hand' at Exeter Ops Centre and again at BBC Weather Centre) frames we show on BBC. Indeed often they will be quite different in many respects.

The 12z NAE run offered a slightly heavier band of snow around mid-morning through much of the SE Midlands, but the transition to 'proper' snow will be messy and we expect a widespread mix of rain/sleet/snow across a fair swathe, including down to the SE, with the PPN intensity proving very critical for allowing WBFL's to fall through evaporative cooling and allow snow penetration to the deck.

The 12z is also somewhat quicker taking the main low on an ENE track across into southern North Sea, thereafter allowing a cold undercut to propogate southwards and offer a risk of sleet and / or wet snow down into Cambs, Northants, Beds and perhaps the Chilterns towards Monday evening.

Let's see what the next run offers. Albeit I'll see it only at 0400 in work again tomorrow!

Best, Ian

PS: Ice risk tonight is the bigger concern for your region; PPS: snowfall amounts tomorrow in areas affected likely ca. 2-5cm based on NAE prog.

Edited February 21, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[andy_leics22]

Hello matey, where've you been hiding??....I've heard a rumour that you'd been spotted in wales doing a bit of sheep worrying!... :lol:

I agree with you on the snow distribution, and there's far too many people on this thread whinging and moaning again, jeez!...When will people learn?...models are complex algorithmic calculations based on human data entry, in other words, a best guess....Last week should have proved, never take the models as gospel!....It'll all be down to radar watching and looking upwards, and if it doesnt snow, are people on here going to commit suicide?, is it really that disappointing and earth shattering?...of course not, but judging some of the really inane posting going on in here, you'd believe otherwise!

Hello dude Haha well I spent a week in the Valleeeys and came back on Friday. Saw snow on 3 days Was a nice break. I am a fan of quiet places with lots of countryside so Wales is ideal for me.

LMAO@ that sheep worrying :lol: You tart!

I still think that PPN is a tad further West than it should be. What do other peeps think at this stage?

If all else disappoints, seek out stellar low-res ensemble run:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-2-24.png?12

There you go. A good chart for the Midlands tomorrow.

The way the radar is going that outcome doesn't look too far off :unsure:

[butler_son]

Hello matey, where've you been hiding??....I've heard a rumour that you'd been spotted in wales doing a bit of sheep worrying!... :unsure:

I reminded Dartmoor_Matt in Banter earlier that sheep husbandry was Devon's remit!

[Serendipity]

Graphics are updated, but please note the 'free' raw NAE output you might see on websites is not necessarily reflective of the modified (by UKMO 'human hand' at Exeter Ops Centre and again at BBC Weather Centre) frames we show on BBC. Indeed often they will be quite different in many respects.

The 12z NAE run offered a slightly heavier band of snow around mid-morning through much of the SE Midlands, but the transition to 'proper' snow will be messy and we expect a widespread mix of rain/sleet/snow across a fair swathe, including down to the SE, with the PPN intensity proving very critical for allowing WBFL's to fall through evaporative cooling and allow snow penetration to the deck.

The 12z is also somewhat quicker taking the main low on an ENE track across into southern North Sea, thereafter allowing a cold undercut to propogate southwards and offer a risk of sleet and / or wet snow down into Cambs, Northants, Beds and perhaps the Chilterns towards Monday evening.

Let's see what the next run offers. Albeit I'll see it only at 0400 in work again tomorrow!

Best, Ian

PS: Ice risk tonight is the bigger concern for your region; PPS: snowfall amounts tomorrow in areas affected likely ca. 2-5cm based on NAE prog.

Thank Ian!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I reminded Dartmoor_Matt in Banter earlier that sheep husbandry was Devon's remit!

I deny all knowledge!

[PolarWarsaw]

Surely there must be some reasoning behind the MO sticking warnings out for tommorow, tuesday and wednesday? Even if one run has shown things much further south. I take it tehre expecting things to be further north.

[weather_it_will]

My area has certainly been downgraded by the Meto for tomorrow.

It still looks marginal whether anyone gets rain or sleet or snow.

Pot luck.

Locally I would expect to see heavy snow.

Certainly where I work it always snows, so I would expect to see snow tomorrow even it only lasts 5 minutes, and melts 5 minutes later.

[scotto]

Looks like Cambridgeshire and the southern east midlands could do ok, looking at the latest NAE. If only it was a little further north I would be very happy!!!

[Bolton67]

Looks like Cambridgeshire and the southern east midlands could do ok,

[andy_leics22]

Here is the latest N-W radar for those who don't have it...

I still think the PPN is a tad further West than progged on the models. Maybe 50 miles or so at the moment.

It is moving in a N/NE direction at the moment.

[SteveElbows]

For me I dont see the position on the radar as being further West than the models suggested. What it does seem to me is that it is anything up to a few hours ahead of its predicted position, but even this Im not too sure on, should be clearer in the next 2 hours.

[Serendipity]

Tis very cold and frosty here, sure it's proper wintry still.