Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

[Cheggers]

No, just showing the date as being the 2nd of March

My bad....... first day of spring and all. Spring.... might just be Winter followed by Summer up here. Approaching -5 here again.

[LomondSnowstorm]

My bad....... first day of spring and all. Spring.... might just be Winter followed by Summer up here. Approaching -5 here again.

Hope so. As long as it's either snowing, heavy showers, freezing cold, sunny, warm, thundery or even just heavy rain in summer (I do like a bit of cold rain in summer to please my dour northeastcoaster soul!) I'm happy.

[Cheggers]

Hope so. As long as it's either snowing, heavy showers, freezing cold, sunny, warm, thundery or even just heavy rain in summer (I do like a bit of cold rain in summer to please my dour northeastcoaster soul!) I'm happy.

Don't want the rain, want to be able to sit out on the deck, slight chill in the air, and get a fire going. Bottle or 4 of wine and sit round the fire till the birds start to chirp at 3am.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Don't want the rain, want to be able to sit out on the deck, slight chill in the air, and get a fire going. Bottle or 4 of wine and sit round the fire till the birds start to chirp at 3am.

Sounds good. Chilly nights in summer are bliss - I can't stand warmth at night, and by warmth I mean over 12C (not that we usually get that too much in summer in rural Freuchie). Biggest summer washout ever had to be this - look for the north coast of France and look at the wind direction http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050707.gif

It was caused by this little shortwave thing http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050704.gif

Although it looks small, a 9 hour thunderstorm reducing temperatures from 23C the evening we arrived to 8C the next morning caused the rest of the holiday to be a bit of adversity, considering the cottage was clearly only built for warm sunny days and the best we managed that week (according to the car) was about 16C before, ironically, it got to 30C the day we left!

LS

[Cheggers]

Sounds good. Chilly nights in summer are bliss - I can't stand warmth at night, and by warmth I mean over 12C (not that we usually get that too much in summer in rural Freuchie). Biggest summer washout ever had to be this - look for the north coast of France and look at the wind direction http://www.wetterzen...00120050707.gif

It was caused by this little shortwave thing http://www.wetterzen...00120050704.gif

Although it looks small, a 9 hour thunderstorm reducing temperatures from 23C the evening we arrived to 8C the next morning caused the rest of the holiday to be a bit of adversity, considering the cottage was clearly only built for warm sunny days and the best we managed that week (according to the car) was about 16C before, ironically, it got to 30C the day we left!

LS

One extreme to another, we arrived in Spain last year for two weeks and were met by this..... http://www.wzkarten3...00120090727.gif

Our apartment is about 2 hours north of Malaga. Locals even had to remain indoors for fear of heat stroke!!! Murcia reported 48C I think. We left Murcia one evening at 11pm and the car read 38C.

Edited March 2, 2010 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

One extreme to another, we arrived in Spain last year for two weeks and were met by this..... http://www.wzkarten3...00120090727.gif

Our apartment is about 2 hours north of Malaga. Locals even had to remain indoors for fear of heat stroke!!!

Scary! There's something comforting about cold rain IMO. Heat is ok but too much of it feels foreign to me and a bit uncomfortable. I also think it makes rubbish buildings look much worse, and piping in too much heat with all the wasps around is complete hell!

[Guest]

Scary! There's something comforting about cold rain IMO. Heat is ok but too much of it feels foreign to me and a bit uncomfortable. I also think it makes rubbish buildings look much worse, and piping in too much heat with all the wasps around is complete hell!

The average Scot's melting point is 21C. I love the days you get in Scotland in April, May and June when the temperature only gets to 15-20C but with a high sun it is very warm. I can't stand the heat (anything over about 23C); it makes my boys grumpy and me not much better.

Back to the best weather of the year, winter; -4C with yet another severe frost but under an overcast sky. How did that happen?? :lol:

One extreme to another, we arrived in Spain last year for two weeks and were met by this..... http://www.wzkarten3...00120090727.gif

Our apartment is about 2 hours north of Malaga. Locals even had to remain indoors for fear of heat stroke!!! Murcia reported 48C I think. We left Murcia one evening at 11pm and the car read 38C.

I would give up and go home

[Northernlights]

Currently -7c here and everything rock hard a gain.

[Guest]

Currently -7c here and everything rock hard a gain.

Everything set like snowcrete up there too?? If it's bad down here it must be even worse where there is a lot of snow. At least tractors are probably about the best for those ground conditions though.

I suspect we haven't seen the last of this winter's big snow; one or two more big falls of snow is/are more than possible, especially over higher ground.

[Cheggers]

The average Scot's melting point is 21C. I love the days you get in Scotland in April, May and June when the temperature only gets to 15-20C but with a high sun it is very warm. I can't stand the heat (anything over about 23C); it makes my boys grumpy and me not much better.

Back to the best weather of the year, winter; -4C with yet another severe frost but under an overcast sky. How did that happen?? :lol:

I would give up and go home

Morning all. -4 here at 7:30, but has now risen to just above freezing.

I was daft enough to play golf in that!!!!

[LadyPakal]

-6 here at 7:30, managed to get up to 4 now, so a subzero average for today. Dry & sunny - very pleasant!

[Norrance]

-6 here at 7:30, managed to get up to 4 now, so a subzero average for today. Dry & sunny - very pleasant!

Not quite as cold here last night at -4.8C but the days max has only been 2.1C so a subzero average here also as have been the last couple of days.

[Guest]

-6 here at 7:30, managed to get up to 4 now, so a subzero average for today. Dry & sunny - very pleasant!

Surely the average is the temp on the hour every hour added together then divided by 24? Or am I missing something (like normal )

Another nice bright day today but the snow is going nowhere fast. Pretty useless stuff since you can't even make a snowball let alone a snowman Lovely to look at though

[LadyPakal]

Surely the average is the temp on the hour every hour added together then divided by 24? Or am I missing something (like normal )

That would be more accurate I suppose, but I think they just take the max & mins & then divide by 2 don't they - measured from 8am to 8am...?

Yes, from here: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/indicators/index.html

'Q. How are the daily mean temperatures calculated? And in case of there being several ways, how can you be sure that those ways are equivalent?

A. Because we use temperature anomalies from a station climatology, it doesn't matter how the average temperature is calculated as long as it is always done in the same way (the differences will cancel in the climatology and the monthly values). For UK data we still use the average of the Max and Min temperatures. This gives us homogenous long-term series from a station. '

Way back when, the max min thermometer was read in the morning (8am I think) and the max & min values recorded - the average was calculated from that.

Edited March 3, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Gilly]

If Gilly from Milton of Leys sees this this evening, could you pm (or just post it here?) me please with your snow cover as I'm supposed to be looking at a site near you and was wondering whether to bother tomorrow. Thanks :o

The very slow thaw continued today. Temperature struggled up to a max of about 5C despite 9 hours continuous sunshine. Went to collect firewood this afternoon that was cut a few days ago and had to use a pick to lever it off the ground.

An elderly relative in Nethybridge still has 18" snow and is decidedly weary of the whole malarky.

Sorry mate..........didnt see your post until now. Too late obviously.

Where is the site you are looking at? We still have a fair bit of lying snow. As soon as you hit level with Milton of Leys and Daviot you will see the difference and a good snow cover.

[Guest]

That would be more accurate I suppose, but I think they just take the max & mins & then divide by 2 don't they - measured from 8am to 8am...?

I see...

That's a cracking way of recording average temps. And completely inaccurate. At least it makes life easy for the measurer :o

So you could have a day when the temp was -1C all day apart for one hour when it was 3C and that would return the same average temp as if the temp had been 1C all day.

In reality the average temp would have been -0.833C in the first example and 1C in the second example.

I don't have time to explain it now but you could actually have a situation where you could claim average temps had increased using the max/min average when in fact average temps using the 24 hour method had actually stayed the same (or fallen). Just as well there's no-one using these max/min averages to prove some global temperature increases or anything like that.......

Edited March 3, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Cheggers]

Just as well there's no-one using these max/min averages to prove some global temperature increases or anything like that.......

No they just use 2 maxes and divide by 1....

Over Balloch way and Paisley today, lots of snow still around in Balloch, and all the elevated area's look pristine, will upload a few pictures later, non from Lomond side though as the mist to thick. :o Max temp over that way today was around 3, so staying very cold in the snowy areas as it was 7 in Paisley. Currently 2.8C here and dropping fast again.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I see...

That's a cracking way of recording average temps. And completely inaccurate. At least it makes life easy for the measurer

So you could have a day when the temp was -1C all day apart for one hour when it was 3C and that would return the same average temp as if the temp had been 1C all day.

In reality the average temp would have been -0.833C in the first example and 1C in the second example.

I don't have time to explain it now but you could actually have a situation where you could claim average temps had increased using the max/min average when in fact average temps using the 24 hour method had actually stayed the same (or fallen). Just as well there's no-one using these max/min averages to prove some global temperature increases or anything like that.......

Have to agree; that is a completely inaccurate way of calculating the average temperature. Think of a cold frosty/foggy -1 to 0 C winters day when the sun only finally breaks through at lunchtime. Goes from 0 C to 7 C in a couple of hours before dropping again rapidly as the sun goes down. Cloud cover prevents a very low min. Real average close to zero, Meto average + 3 C. This could give errors of a few degrees in the actual average temp. As a chemical engineer, I'm astounded at anyone could consider that method representative. Ok, so the error (or variation from local average) is maybe a few degrees based on the positioning (inc changes to) of the thermometer (wind, exposure, shade etc), then we have a potentially huge error due to the averaging method. So, the world has warmed up by 0.4 +/-6 C? If I tried to publish a paper where my error was larger than the measured value it'd be laughed out of the editorial office (unless it proved GW of course).

Frost on the way again here. Loads of snow over the hills between pathhead and oxton on the A68. None here though. Oh well.

[Cheggers]

.JPG]

Not the best but everywhere I parked there were bloody trees in the way. These are from the back of Strathblane near Mugdock park looking towards Campsies. Snow then goes as you approach Kilsyth but reappears again from Dennyloanhead.

Temp now down to -1.5C and the stars are twinkling once again.

Edited March 3, 2010 by Cheggers

[Cheggers]

Id say very mild for Scotland on this ecmwf, hope its a clear frosty high for england and Wales, could end up a dirty high, but at least dry

Any comments LS, be nice to have a wee bit of warmth.

Edited March 3, 2010 by Cheggers

[LomondSnowstorm]

Any comments LS, be nice to have a wee bit of warmth.

Mark tends to exaggerate mild at times - yes, the ECM gives average temperatures and probably some decent sunshine (though the risk of mid-level cloud encroaching increases past the weekend) but not all that mild IMO. I'd either like the high to sit right over us or get shoved away completely - the high being near but not quite over us would bring pretty rubbish weather I reckon. If it moves southeast then it is likely to be warmer and fairly sunny, if northeast then cold and snowy, if northwest then cold with a northerly, if southwest then rubbish and drizzly and if directly over us sunny and similar to the status quo. Saturday looks a bit rubbish for the east mind you because of the slight front dying out over us http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/69/ukprec

Nicer by Sunday I think http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/90/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/96/ukmaxtemp.png

Not quite warm and frosty by Monday morning http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/111/ukmintemp.png

The pub run has the high decaying over the UK, drifting slightly further east also http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/135/h500slp.png

First signs of warmth? http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/144/ukmaxtemp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/141/ukpaneltemp.png

Thankfully for the hills the dewpoints are sub freezing so very little snow melt on the tops with hardly any wind either which can 'eat' the snow with temperatures like these.

This then brings the northerly 'toppler' in http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100303/18/348/h850t850eu.png

Widespread snow showers with a stronger sun meaning convection popping up anywhere on land or sea. It would be a nice switch around to see that - sunny and frosty gradually turning to milder and less sunny followed by a bitter northerly - the cold air up there has been bottled up for quite a bit really, with the last real northerly in late January.

LS

[TonyH]

Have to agree; that is a completely inaccurate way of calculating the average temperature. Think of a cold frosty/foggy -1 to 0 C winters day when the sun only finally breaks through at lunchtime. Goes from 0 C to 7 C in a couple of hours before dropping again rapidly as the sun goes down. Cloud cover prevents a very low min. Real average close to zero, Meto average + 3 C. This could give errors of a few degrees in the actual average temp. As a chemical engineer, I'm astounded at anyone could consider that method representative. Ok, so the error (or variation from local average) is maybe a few degrees based on the positioning (inc changes to) of the thermometer (wind, exposure, shade etc), then we have a potentially huge error due to the averaging method. So, the world has warmed up by 0.4 +/-6 C? If I tried to publish a paper where my error was larger than the measured value it'd be laughed out of the editorial office (unless it proved GW of course).

The difference between the two methods is not that significant really.

My monthly means from dividing max+mins are only up to 0.5c higher than the average of all 30 minute readings of the weather station.

For example for last month the max/min average overall was 2.65c, while the average of all 30 minute readings was 2.3c (the former not then so heavily skewed by the short, warming influence of the days).

Edited March 3, 2010 by Tonyh

[LomondSnowstorm]

The difference between the two methods is not that significant really.

My monthly means from dividing max+mins are only up to 0.5c higher than the average of all 30 minute readings of the weather station.

For example for last month the max/min average overall was 2.65c, while the average of all 30 minute readings was 2.3c (the former not then so heavily skewed by the short, warming influence of the days).

That means that potentially the real average was around 0.7C below the published one for the month, but I suppose as long as all the averages are recorded in the same way then it is reasonably fair?

[Cheggers]

Mark tends to exaggerate mild at times - yes, the ECM gives average temperatures and probably some decent sunshine (though the risk of mid-level cloud encroaching increases past the weekend) but not all that mild IMO. I'd either like the high to sit right over us or get shoved away completely - the high being near but not quite over us would bring pretty rubbish weather I reckon. If it moves southeast then it is likely to be warmer and fairly sunny, if northeast then cold and snowy, if northwest then cold with a northerly, if southwest then rubbish and drizzly and if directly over us sunny and similar to the status quo. Saturday looks a bit rubbish for the east mind you because of the slight front dying out over us http://charts.netwea...03/18/69/ukprec

Nicer by Sunday I think http://charts.netwea.../90/h500slp.png

http://charts.netwea...6/ukmaxtemp.png

Not quite warm and frosty by Monday morning http://charts.netwea...1/ukmintemp.png

The pub run has the high decaying over the UK, drifting slightly further east also http://charts.netwea...135/h500slp.png

First signs of warmth? http://charts.netwea...4/ukmaxtemp.png

http://charts.netwea...ukpaneltemp.png

Thankfully for the hills the dewpoints are sub freezing so very little snow melt on the tops with hardly any wind either which can 'eat' the snow with temperatures like these.

This then brings the northerly 'toppler' in http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Widespread snow showers with a stronger sun meaning convection popping up anywhere on land or sea. It would be a nice switch around to see that - sunny and frosty gradually turning to milder and less sunny followed by a bitter northerly - the cold air up there has been bottled up for quite a bit really, with the last real northerly in late January.

LS

I did have a look at the 12Z and it seemed from that "average" might be on the cards, but seeing as there is still a vast snow field out there, temps might be predicted a little high in my view. As I alluded to earlier on my travels the big difference in just a few miles.

I see the last chart is a way out, but a nice way to round winter off.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Was up Ben Lomond yesterday mega snow there will post pictures tomorrow, -6 currently and hard frost as I type what a winter eh!

Scott